5 wise wagers for tonight's games

May 24th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

There’s no shortage of MLB action to bet on Tuesday. Let’s look at some of the options that stand out on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Orioles at Yankees
The wager: Total over 7.5 runs
Line
: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)

This play was appealing when the total was set at 8.5. The payout didn’t dip much, so we’ll happily take a little more breathing room.

The Yankees may have scored four runs on Monday, but their lineup was pretty quiet outside of Aaron Judge in the loss. That’s not going to hold, especially at Yankee Stadium and with DJ LeMahieu set to return to the starting lineup after getting Monday off (mostly -- he did pinch-hit in the ninth). Plus, Bruce Zimmermann is on the mound for Baltimore. He shut down the Yankees the first time these two teams met up, but they’ve gotten to the lefty for eight earned runs (one unearned) in the 9 1/3 innings he’s logged vs. New York since that April 17 outing. That’s not exactly surprising to see from a lineup that’s top 10 in wOBA, ISO, OPS and hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Now on the other side of this pick, Jordan Montgomery has been pretty good vs. the Orioles. But like Zimmermann, this is the fourth time Montgomery’s opponent has seen him over a short period of time. Again, like Zimmermann with the Yankees, Montgomery skunked the O’s in his first 2022 start, but has given up runs to Baltimore since (five over 10 2/3). Not as many as Zimmermann, but we don’t need major contributions from Montgomery. Judge and company should carry this pick.

That said, backing Trey Mancini to log over 1.5 total bases at +155 is another outstanding play featured on this slate. He, like Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins, has a good track record against Montgomery.

This play is all about Realmuto. Bettors can only get his total bases prop at 0.5 straight-up. In this situation, pairing our targeted hitter with their team scoring a run is the simplest way to get the desired pick and payout. If you like Philadelphia to score more than one run Tuesday, adjust this how you deem fit.

Now, Realmuto was a hitter of interest before his big Monday showing. He hasn’t taken a lefty deep this month, but he does have three triples against them in 22 at-bats. More importantly, he has a 43.8% hard-contact rate against lefties in May. Even better, on Tuesday, the Philadelphia catcher gets to face a pitcher he’s tattooed in the past. Realmuto is 10-for-26 with three home runs, two doubles and a triple against Max Fried.

Twins vs. Tigers
The wager: Total over 8 runs
Line
: -105 (bet $105 to win $100)

Beau Brieske has had some decent outings to start his MLB career, but he’s been far from lock-down. A repeat of his last start would be nice, and it might be in play given what the Twins have done behind Sonny Gray recently. With Byron Buxton looking to break out of a four-game slump, the Twins and their strong hard-contact vs. soft-contact rate split against righties (33.5% vs. 13.7%) should handle most of the workload for this pick.

Now, backing the Tigers to help hit the over might seem a bit odd since they’re facing a right-hander on Tuesday. Whether you’re looking at wOBA, ISO or OPS, the Tigers have been pretty bad against right-handed pitching. However, their .267 BABIP indicates they’ve been pretty unlucky. Also, a few important Detroit hitters have good numbers against Gray, which could play large.

Looking at the relievers, Detroit’s 3.61 bullpen FIP indicates their MLB second-best 3.06 bullpen ERA is due to climb a bit. Minnesota’s bullpen should largely maintain, but it’s far from untouchable with a 3.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP.

Brewers at Padres
The wager: Brewers minus 1.5 runs
Line
: +140 (bet $100 to win $140)

Blake Snell’s 2022 debut didn’t go well, and there’s not much reason to expect his second start of the season will lead to a better result for the Padres. As much as the Brewers are middle of the pack against left-handed pitching when you look at OPS, ISO or wOBA, their batted-ball numbers indicate they’re due for improved results. Milwaukee has a measly .259 BABIP against lefties despite having the sixth-best hard-contact rate against them.

The Padres, on the other hand, have a reasonable .286 BABIP against right-handed pitching despite having the fifth-lowest hard-contact rate and sixth-highest soft-contact rates against right-handers. They might not be due for corrections in terms of wOBA or ISO, but they sure aren’t likely to improve. Certainly not against Corbin Burnes, who’s looking to bounce back after the Braves got to him for four runs in his last start -- which is the only time he’s given up three-plus runs since the Cubs got to him for three over five frames on Opening Day. Another way to back Burnes if you’re looking for a value pick is taking the under on San Diego’s first five innings run total at 1.5 (-135).

Mets at Giants
The wager: Mets moneyline
Line
: +105 (bet $100 to win $105)

This was on the radar before the Mets smoked the Giants on Monday. Logan Webb is a beast, but his strikeout rate is down nearly 10 percentage points. That’s bumped his strikeout-to-walk rate down to 10.5% after posting a 20.5% rate last season. Now, his 5.7% home-run-to-fly-ball rate is an improvement from what he’s done throughout his career, but it’s a tough mark to maintain -- especially when he’s giving up more fly balls than he usually does.

The Mets may only have a .135 ISO against righties, but their .333 wOBA is the second-best mark in the league. Furthermore, they’re tied for the lowest strikeout rate against righties, which bodes well against a pitcher who’s not striking out hitters as often as he usually does.

Now, Chris Bassitt won’t face an easy lineup in San Francisco -- which the right-hander knows all too well. The Giants got to him for five runs on April 20. But Bassitt is coming off his second rough outing of the season, and he’s dealt in his three starts that have followed a three-plus-runs showing.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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