2 key numbers behind Oakland's early troubles

April 11th, 2023

BALTIMORE -- On the heels of a particularly difficult sweep to the Rays this weekend, A’s manager Mark Kotsay summed up his club’s early-season struggles succinctly: “The storyline here is we need to be better on the mound.”

While Oakland’s staff surely isn’t firing on all cylinders in the early going, the offense was more the culprit in Monday’s series-opening 5-1 loss to the Orioles at Camden Yards. Left searching for the big hit after ’s first-inning RBI triple, the A’s struck out 11 times and watched two potential rallies fizzle in the late innings on their way to their fifth straight defeat.

“We’ve faced some good pitching, but tonight we had some opportunities with runners in scoring position,” Kotsay said. “Situational hitting, hitting in general. I thought the at-bats were better tonight. We had some guys, we had some chances, but weren’t able to convert.”

Kotsay’s assessment, both nights, is apt. In truth, the rebuilding A’s are struggling on both sides of the ball. They’ve been outscored 42-10 during their current skid, and haven’t held the lead at the end of any complete inning during that span.

Here are a couple key numbers to help explain their early-season issues:

1) 9.53 rotation ERA
It all begins with good starting pitching, and so far … the A’s haven’t gotten much. Oakland’s 7.36 staff ERA is easily the highest in the Majors, and their 9.53 rotation ERA (48 ER in 45 1/3 IP) is the highest by more than a full run over the runner-up Tigers (7.49).

In that vein, it’s easy to view ’ outing Monday as a step in the right direction. Hindered by a 28-pitch first inning, Sears settled in enough to complete five innings of three-run ball. Sears struck out four and held the O’s to only three hits, but two were costly -- Ryan Mountcastle’s two-run homer in the first and Adley Rutschman’s third-inning solo shot.

“I definitely felt better as I went,” Sears said. “It was a little fast there early in the game with my mechanics, and the game definitely sped up on me with the pitch clock. Made some bad pitches there to some guys early.”

Kotsay’s clearest positive takeaway Monday was Sears’ continued ability to limit walks, as he gave up just one against Baltimore and has issued only two in 9 2/3 innings this season. That makes him something of an outlier so far on an A’s staff tied for third most in the Majors with 49 free passes. The 27-year-old lefty is now 3-4 with a 4.84 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) since being acquired from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade at last year’s Trade Deadline.

“I have to be better at controlling when things go a little bad, like in the first,” Sears said. “Slow things down a little bit.”

2) -49 run differential
On the flip side, the challenge now for the A’s offense is to get back on track without slugger Seth Brown, who hit the injured list Monday with a left oblique strain that has the potential to sideline the club’s top run producer for several weeks. The A’s are hoping hot-hitting prospect Kevin Smith provides a jolt, and that rookie Esteury Ruiz can start making things happen with his excellent speed from the bottom of the lineup. A big hit or two, and maybe the floodgates open.

But it’s hard to steal bases down big, and hard to shrink leads without timely extra-base hitting. The A’s aren’t getting that right now. They’ve now been held to one run in their past three games and 28 total through 10 games, second fewest in the Majors. They rank 29th in team average and 28th in OPS.

“The lack of runs, there is no extra pressure,” Sears said. “I have to go out there and do my job regardless. I don’t look at it like that. The boys are grinding, too, on our side of the field. I just need to be better early in the game and be sharper early.”

Said Kotsay: “We only scored one run, so at the end of the day, offensively, we didn’t get our job done.”