Phillies tab Nola to start World Series opener

Wheeler will pitch Game 2 on extra rest, likely followed by Suárez (Game 3) and bullpen game (Game 4)

October 28th, 2022

HOUSTON -- Not long after Nick Castellanos caught the final out of the National League Championship Series on Sunday night at Citizens Bank Park, Phillies manager Rob Thomson spotted Aaron Nola on the field. They hugged.

“You’re starting Game 1,” Thomson said. Nola smiled.

“Awesome,” he said.

That is how the laid-back manager told the laid-back starter that he will open the 2022 World Series on Friday night against the Astros at Minute Maid Park.

“I was probably pretty excited,” Thomson said, asked why he chose that moment to tell Nola.

“Normal Rob Thomson,” Nola said.

It will be a return of sorts for Nola, who pitched what was then the biggest game of his life on Oct. 3 at Minute Maid Park. Nola twirled 6 2/3 perfect innings before surrendering two singles in a 3-0 victory over Houston to clinch the third NL Wild Card for the Phillies, snapping their 11-year postseason drought.

Rhys Hoskins called Nola’s start “poetry.” Nola called it a “long time in the making.”

By clinching the NLCS in five games, the Phillies can pitch Nola in Game 1 and Zack Wheeler in Game 2 on Saturday night, giving him an extra day of rest.

“They’re arguably our two best pitchers,” Thomson said. “It just happened to work out that we've been able to have enough time between their starts that they can go one and two in each series. It's worked out, and for us, it's a huge advantage.”

Thomson said he does not know who will start Game 3 on Monday night or Game 4 on Tuesday night, although left-hander Ranger Suárez is a good bet to start Game 3. Game 4 will likely be a bullpen game, possibly started by Noah Syndergaard or Bailey Falter.

Thomson said there is no chance the Phils will use only three starters in the series, meaning it is highly unlikely he would bring back Nola or Wheeler on short rest. Historically, Nola is much better on extra rest. He is 35-38 with a 4.26 ERA in 94 career starts with four days' (or normal) rest, compared to 43-24 with a 3.06 ERA in 109 starts with extra rest.

Wheeler actually has better career numbers when he pitches on normal rest. He is 44-21 with a 3.14 ERA in 92 career starts on normal rest, compared to 30-36 with a 3.69 ERA in 103 starts on extra rest. But Wheeler missed a month late in the season because of tendinitis in his right forearm. He also has seen a drop in velocity in the postseason once he reaches the later innings.

The Phillies believe an extra day will help Wheeler, who has been almost unhittable so far this postseason.

Wheeler's 0.51 WHIP is the lowest in any four-start span in a single postseason in MLB history. Curt Schilling is second with a 0.62 WHIP over a four-start span with the D-backs in 2001, when they won the World Series.

The extra day also might help any lingering soreness Wheeler might have in his right leg. He got hit by a line drive by Josh Bell in the fourth inning in Game 5 of the NL Championship Series on Sunday. Wheeler remained in the game, but it bothered him during and afterward.

Thomson said Wheeler will be fine for Game 2.

Really, everything lined up perfectly for the Phillies by clinching the NLCS on Sunday. Had the Padres managed to push the series to six games, Wheeler likely would have started Game 1 of the World Series on normal rest. Nola, who would have started Game 6 in San Diego, would have started Game 2 on normal rest.

“You get both of them twice,” Thomson said. “So, four of a potential seven games, you have your two best guys. It's a big advantage.”