Here are the keys to each Division Series
Will Leitch
@williamfleitchWith the Wild Card Series over, the playoffs now kick into an even higher gear: The Division Series features eight teams that have what it takes to win it all. There are some surprises, some underdogs, some fascinating subplots … and surely much wildness to come. All four Division Series kick off Tuesday. Here’s a look at the primary storyline to watch for in Game 1 and beyond.
Phillies at Braves
Ranger Suárez vs. Max Fried
1:07 p.m. ET, FOX
Phillies: Do they empty out the pitching tanks already?
As much as some of us might have recommended the Phillies to save Aaron Nola for Game 1 of a potential NLDS after winning that odds-defying opener of their Wild Card Series against the Cardinals, the Phillies didn’t: They started Nola, they won Game 2, they’re here and it all worked out. But there isn’t a path to winning this series that doesn’t involve Nola and Zack Wheeler -- now only available to start two of these games on full rest, rather than three -- winning their starts and then cobbling together another win elsewhere.
So in Game 1, you wonder how long the Phillies will stick with Suárez, a perfectly fine pitcher but, you know, not of the caliber of Nola or Wheeler. Converted starter Zach Eflin has surprisingly established himself as a closer late in the season, but you can see him being used earlier in a game like this, particularly if the Phillies have the lead. Might you even see Noah Syndergaard? Either way, the Phillies may start piecing together innings in Game 1 while assuming Wheeler and Nola will give them length later on.
Braves: How do all the new guys look this postseason?
It has become conventional wisdom that this Braves team is more talented, top to bottom, than the one that won the 2021 World Series. But that team went all the way thanks in large part to some super-clutch hitting by a bunch of people who are, uh, no longer with the club. The Braves' NLDS Game 1 starting lineup is likely to feature five guys who weren’t in the lineup for the championship clincher last year: Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Orlando Arcia. They’re all good players -- the first three might even be classified as great -- but they weren’t part of that magic last year. And as we all know: October is all about magic. Can they conjure up their own?
Mariners at Astros
Logan Gilbert vs. Justin Verlander
3:37 p.m. ET, TBS
Mariners: Can Julio get it going and carry them?
Look, once this series gets to Game 3, that T-Mobile Park crowd is going to have the Mariners soaring. They’ll have all the spark they need and then some come Saturday. But it sure would be helpful to have this series at least tied by then, and a great way to do that would be for Julio Rodríguez to carry Seattle. Most of the Mariners’ offense in the Wild Card Series came from players other than their rookie sensation: He went 1-for-7 and scored a couple of runs. He is the rare sort of talent that can win a game by himself, and now that his back appears to be OK, he has the opportunity to start making the sort of postseason memories for this franchise that could become rather common over the next decade or so.
Astros: Will Justin Verlander keep dominating?
Verlander has not pitched in a postseason game since the 2019 World Series, and it’s fair to say that a lot has happened since -- with him, the Astros, baseball and the world. Verlander, after missing most of the past two seasons, has returned in glorious fashion this year, going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and putting himself in position to win his third AL Cy Young Award. He has been particularly excellent down the stretch as well, having not allowed a hit in three of his previous six starts. But this is the postseason, which has been a bit of a headache for Verlander since he won ALCS MVP in '17, including two semi-rocky starts in that '19 World Series.
Guardians at Yankees
Cal Quantrill vs. Gerrit Cole
7:37 p.m. ET, TBS
Guardians: Can they score enough runs?
So, you only scored three runs in 24 innings of baseball … and you still won both games! The Guardians’ pitching had a lot to do with besting the Rays in the Wild Card Series, obviously, but it’s fair to say that their offense needs to pick it up a bit: A .171/.222/.250 isn’t going to win you many postseason series. Having to face Cole in Game 1 isn’t ideal, but that’s October: You end up coming across a lot of aces. If you’re looking for someone specifically to get it going, how about Andrés Giménez? He went 1-for-8 with six strikeouts against the Rays. He might have quietly been the Guardians’ best player this year, and it’s tough to see how they win this series without him.
Yankees: How much do they ride Cole?
The Aroldis Chapman situation is more about the headlines than actual utility, because he Yankees weren’t going to have him pitching high-leverage innings this October given his performance this season. But there are some bullpen issues here. Clay Holmes should be back healthy, you’d hope, though we’re still talking about a shoulder problem, which is never good. But you need to value every inning he, Jonathan Loáisiga, Lou Trivino and Scott Effross throw. The good news for the Yankees (and every AL team) is that they get an extra off-day this series, which isn’t just good for the bullpen, it’s good for Cole: He can be back on regular rest for a Game 4, if needed.
Padres at Dodgers
Mike Clevinger vs. Julio Urías
9:37 p.m. ET, FS1
Padres: Can they slay the Dodgers monster?
Whatever one’s thoughts are on the Padres’ moves the last couple of years, you have to admire that they have been this aggressive, particularly with the perpetual dominance of the Dodgers machine. They have never been intimidated by what the Dodgers have built, and they’ve gone right after their division rivals to the north. And now here they are, right in front of them -- all they’ve got to do is win three of the next five games.
Game 1 might be one of the toughest ones, with Mike Clevinger getting the start before San Diego cycles back to Yu Darvish. Clevinger represents one of the Padres’ many bold moves, but he’s been pretty pedestrian since arriving in from Cleveland in 2020, posting a 4.33 ERA this season after missing 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. That said, he gives the Padres a puncher’s chance, and it sure feels like this series will be won or lost by what Juan Soto and Manny Machado do. They’re the stars. And this is a series full of stars.
Dodgers: Do they have to win Game 1?
The Dodgers have been the best franchise in baseball for nearly a decade now, but they have only one World Series title to their name during that span, something that earns them a ton of (unfair) skepticism. They won 111 games this year -- 111! -- and none of those wins will mean a thing if they don’t win this series, or really the whole thing. And there’s reason to worry if they lose Game 1.
The Padres have Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove looming -- all of whom are as hot right now as any Dodgers pitcher -- which makes the opportunity they have in Game 1 a tough one to miss out on. The Dodgers worked hard to earn the advantage that winning 111 games gives you in the postseason. And if they lose Game 1, that advantage is instantly gone.