How Alvarez made his case for Nats’ 2027 starting rotation

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After a memorable Major League debut in September 2025 that included five scoreless innings, left-hander began this past season in Triple-A Rochester. He’d get called up again -- and then sent back down a few times. Each stint was a learning experience. By the end of this season, Alvarez had made a case for the Nationals’ 2027 starting rotation.

“I think Alvy has thrown great,” president of baseball operations Paul Toboni said in late September. “He's put himself in a position where he's going to be throwing, hopefully, a bunch of high-quality innings for us next year.”

Alvarez, 27, went 2-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 25 appearances (17 starts) this year. He recorded a 9.11 strikeout rate (63rd percentile) and 4.07 walk rate (19th percentile). Alvarez did not allow a home run for 56 2/3 consecutive innings from June 3 to Aug. 14. Per Elias Sports Bureau, that was the fourth-longest streak in Nationals team history (2005-present).

“Alvy still can do a better job of throwing strikes,” said manager Blake Butera. “But he also has really good stuff and finds a way to make pitches when he needs to.”

Overall on the season, Alvarez was a tale of two halves.

Before the All-Star break, Alvarez went 2-3 with a 4.04 ERA in 13 appearances (six starts) across 49 innings. Opponents hit .263 against him.

In the second half, Alvarez went 0-3 but tallied a 2.97 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts) across 63 2/3 innings. His opponents’ batting average dropped to .201. Alvarez had a notable stretch of 10 starts from July 27 to Sept. 19, when he recorded a 2.14 ERA and limited opponents to batting just .172 with three home runs.

Alvarez applied what he had learned from fellow lefty/All-Star starter Foster Griffin, who was traded to Cleveland at the Deadline. Following his Aug. 3 callup, Alvarez spent the rest of the season in the Majors.

“I think part of it is you want to stay up here, and when you get optioned, you've got to get going,” Alvarez said. “Not saying that I wasn't trying to get going, but when your back is up against the wall, you’ve kind of got to go out there and dominate.”

The Nationals see the potential for Alvarez to grow his pitching repertoire this offseason. His fastball, which averaged 92.1 mph this season, ranked in the 16th percentile in fastball velocity and had just a 12.6 whiff percentage. Per Statcast, Alvarez’s overall whiff percentage ranked in the 59th percentile and his chase rate ranked in the 45th percentile. An improved heater is a pitch that could help open the rest of his arsenal.

“I think the biggest thing for Alvy is once he establishes pitches in the zone, that's going to allow him to get more chase outside of the zone,” said Butera. “... One thing we talked to him about was hopefully next year coming in with a little bit more velocity. … Once he gets the fastball going and he's able to command the fastball, I think it's going to create more opportunities for whiff in the zone.”

Alvarez approached every outing this season with the mindset that his work in the Major Leagues is still just beginning. While he turned heads in 2026, his outlook for ‘27 is to compete for his opportunities all over again.

“At the end of the day, I don't think I've earned or deserved anything,” Alvarez said. “So I’m approaching this offseason really trying to get better and just put myself in a good position for next year.”