This story was excerpted from Paul Casella's Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PHILADELPHIA -- It was around this time last year that Andrew Painter was ramping up in the Minor Leagues for what the Phillies hoped would be a midsummer MLB debut.
That, of course, did not come to fruition. And while he made the Opening Day roster this season, Painter's big league career is not off to the start that he nor the Phillies expected.
The reason Painter never broke into the Majors last season was simple: He didn't prove he was ready. After missing two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery, he grinded his way through 26 Minor League starts in which he put up a 5.26 ERA.
The Phillies insisted they were content just getting him through the season fully healthy with an eye on 2026.
But now, through 12 big league outings, Painter has a 6.21 ERA.
"It’s not like you just get endless chances, right?” interim manager Don Mattingly said. “You have to perform."
Though the Phillies could theoretically skip Painter's turn this time through the rotation due to Thursday's off-day, it appears his next "chance" will come on Friday in Milwaukee.
“There's been no talk otherwise," Mattingly said. "We trust the kid, and we think he's going to be good."
So what exactly does Painter need to fix? And what are the Phillies' options if it doesn't turn around soon?
Let's dive deeper on both:
What's the problem?
This one isn't a secret: Painter's fastball has been ineffective to the point that it's become almost unusable.
He'd been throwing it much less in recent outings than he was at the start of the season, but Painter used his four-seamer less than ever before in Saturday's loss to the White Sox. After struggling to throw it anywhere near the zone in the first inning, he threw only four four-seamers over his final 51 pitches.
Overall, here's a look at how his pitch usage percentage has changed from his first seven starts to his past five:
Of course, the reason Painter is throwing it less is obvious. Opponents are hitting .390 against his four-seam fastball -- a pitch that has generated a whiff rate of just 9.9%. Among the 79 pitchers who have thrown at least 300 four-seamers this season, only one has a worse whiff rate (Zac Gallen, 6.9%).
"I mean, I'm confident throwing it," Painter said. "The shape's been better, but if you're not in the zone with it, you're going to have no success with it."
To that point, Painter has thrown only 46.3% of those fastballs in the zone. That is the worst rate among those 79 pitchers.
Perhaps the best way to see just how sporadic Painter's control has been with that pitch is to look at his heatmap -- a graphic that essentially shows where he throws it the most.
But first, as a reference for what you want these to look like, here's a look at a few other players. This shows the four-seam fastball heatmaps for Phillies teammates Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo, as well as two pitchers with arguably the most effective four-seamers so far this season: Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) and Cam Schlittler (Yankees).
Now, here's Painter:
Painter's heatmap lacks the general shape of the others -- a clear indication that it's not a matter of simply missing his spots, but instead he just has no control over where the pitch is going once it leaves his hand.
What's the solution?
So while Mattingly noted that you "don't get endless chances," there aren't many alternatives right now.
The idea of letting Painter iron out his issues in the Minors isn't that simple. For starters, the Phillies' Minor League rotation depth is almost nonexistent. There isn't an obvious candidate for who would take his spot -- nor is there any indication that person would perform better than Painter.
As for skipping Painter's turn, that's problematic for a couple of reasons. The most significant being that Mattingly wants to make sure he's taking care of guys like Cristopher Sánchez and Wheeler, who are consistently pitching deep into their outings. That off-day affords every starter an extra day of rest -- something that the Phillies don't take for granted.
"It's going to be a lot of innings as the summer creeps along and we have to be able to take care of those guys," Mattingly said. "It's kind of our calling card, as much as anything, is that starting pitching, so we don't want to get to a point where we're always pushing Paint to give him extra days and hurting everybody else."
Beyond that, it's better for Painter to be around pitching coach Caleb Cotham and the rest of the big league coaching staff -- not to mention a rotation full of veterans who have all received Cy Young votes at some point in their career.
"Having those guys around him takes pressure off of him, from the standpoint of not having to be the guy," Mattingly said. "And having conversations, being able to talk through stuff -- I'm sure all of our guys have been through struggles -- so it's good that you have those guys around."