There have been some disappointing teams this year -- the Rangers come to mind, as well as the Diamondbacks, Guardians and Giants -- but no two teams fell further short of their lofty preseason expectations than the Orioles and Braves.
The Orioles had a somewhat disappointing 2024, getting swept out of the AL Wild Card Series for their second straight winless postseason, but felt like a clear bounceback candidate, to the point that some fools picked them to win the division. And the Braves, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider both on the mend, highlighting a roster that figured to be healthier in general, seemed likely to return to their 2021-23 form.
Neither of these things happened. Both teams got off to miserable starts and never could quite get back on track, to the point that they were both sellers at the Trade Deadline. But there’s no question both teams, and both fanbases, expect to be back in contention in 2026. Should we believe in either of them? Both? Neither?
Here’s the case for optimism for each of them in 2026, as well as a verdict for the team that’s more likely to break through.
The case for the Orioles
1. Seriously: There are (still) so many young hitters here
The reason you thought the Orioles would be so good remains the reason you should still think they will be so good. Their young hitters remain the envy of baseball. Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg … all of those guys are 27 or younger and will in fact still be 27 or younger a year from now.
Not all of those hitters have reached their peak yet, or even really approached it; the progression of a baseball player is not always a linear one. But they’re all highly touted players, ones who have had success in the Minors and the Majors, and all far more likely to get better before they get worse. For all the frustrations with the pitching this year, the offense underperformed expectations even more. But we have seen progress already from slow starters like Holliday -- who is going to be a big breakout pick this offseason -- and the ceilings remain extremely high. The Orioles don’t need every one of these guys to pop in order to have the best offense in baseball. But they might all pop anyway.
2. There’s reason for hope on the pitching side
Orioles fans -- quite rightly, it turned out -- were screaming that the team should have been more aggressive heading into this season with its pitching staff. You didn’t have to be a genius to see the rotation holes back in March. But there should be fewer holes heading into 2026. At the very least, they’ll have Trevor Rogers, who looks not just like a rotation mainstay now but a potential ace. Kyle Bradish has been excellent in his recent return from Tommy John surgery as well, and there’s reason to think Dean Kremer can stick around.
Grayson Rodriguez got season-ending surgery, but it wasn’t Tommy John, and he should be back for Spring Training, along with Cade Povich. Now, the Orioles will have to add to that, of course. But as a foundation? As something to build off? That’s more than they had heading into 2025 by a good margin.
3. The front office will be more aggressive this time … right?
You can understand Orioles fans’ skepticism on this front, but if 2025 proved anything, it’s that the team’s relative stasis last offseason was a mistake: All confidence that the rotation would hold up ended up unwarranted. General manager Mike Elias has said the front office will take a "hard look in the mirror” at what went wrong in 2025, but he shouldn’t have to look that hard: This rotation needs help.
It needs the Orioles to be aggressive, maybe even over-aggressive, in a way this organization has been hesitant to be in the past. There are some obvious targets for the Orioles this winter: Michael King, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez lead the list. Last year, I would have been skeptical at the idea of them making much of a push. After what just happened, I am considerably less skeptical. They’ve got to get something done. I think they will.
The case for the Braves
1. This offense can be elite again
Just over two years ago, our own Mike Petriello argued, persuasively, that the Braves’ 2023 offense was one of the best in baseball history, thanks largely to its depth. Almost all the guys from that offense are still here. And they actually now have added Drake Baldwin, the likely NL Rookie of the Year, and Jurickson Profar to that ledger.
Sure, some of those guys have taken steps back. Ozzie Albies is struggling when he should be peaking, and Austin Riley has turned out to be merely an above-average hitter rather than a superstar. But it’s still stacked, that lineup, and one of the most encouraging second-half stories has been Michael Harris II, the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year Award winner who, thanks to some swing changes, looks like he could be a star again. This team still isn’t very old: Among the position-player regulars, only Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Profar will be over 30 next season. The Braves locked this lineup up for a reason. They could very much remind us why next year.
2. Their rotation could be sneaky good
Speaking of young guys, the Braves, to go along with resurgent veteran Chris Sale, have a bunch of dudes in their 20s who could stabilize a rotation that has, of course, been ravaged by injuries. Strider (still not 27 years old) has struggled this year, but he has come along lately and could probably use a normal offseason progression -- something he didn’t have a year ago -- to be ready for Opening Day.
Rookie Hurston Waldrep has been fantastic in his five starts so far. Spencer Schwellenbach will be back for Opening Day 2026, as should Reynaldo López. That’s an above-average rotation right there, at the very least. Add that to a healthy lineup, and you’ve got something.
3. They’re due for a healthy season … right?
As they say on Wall Street, past performance is not predictive of future results. Just because the Braves have been absolutely ravaged by injuries for two years running now, that doesn’t mean their luck is going to flip next year. It also doesn’t mean it’s not going to flip next year, of course, but you’d have to think the Braves should have some sort of injury luck at some point.
This Atlanta roster is still supremely talented, really, from top to bottom. The Braves also have guys like Acuña, who should be at the top of their talent curves right now, and would be if it weren’t for injuries. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a somewhat clean injury year? Haven’t the Braves earned one?
The verdict
Both these teams are in stacked divisions: The NL East has the Phillies and Mets juggernauts, and the AL East is likely going to have three playoff teams this year. But one team may have already had its peak years. The other, the Orioles, should just be coming into theirs. I’m remaining on board.