As expected, the Pirates extended a qualifying offer to Brandon Lowe on Monday.
The qualifying offer this year is worth $23.15 million, although it would be a surprise for Lowe to actually accept it.
Lowe has until Nov. 17 to accept the qualifying offer or decided to pursue free agency, which is the much more likely path after Lowe hit .260 with an .824 OPS this past season, with 35 home runs and 96 RBIs.
The big reason the qualifying offer matters is that the Pirates will receive draft-pick compensation if Lowe ultimately signs with another team.
From the time the qualifying-offer system was implemented in 2012, only 18 of the 157 players to receive one (prior to this year) have accepted it.
Lowe was worth 5.4 bWAR, which represents the best season for a Pirates position player since Bryan Reynolds was worth 6.0 bWAR in 2021.
Initial contract projections for Lowe vary quite a bit. The Athletic's Jim Bowden last week predicted Lowe would make $45 million over three years, which definitely falls on the low side.
On Monday, Keith Law (also of the Athletic) listed Lowe as the No. 3 free agent available behind Tarik Skubal and Teruaki Sato, predicting Lowe would get at least five years and $150 million.
While Lowe will certainly be compensated for his offensive season, it’ll be interesting to see how much defense plays a part. With the Rays in 2025, Lowe was worth -14 defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs.
Among those who spent at least 600 innings at second base, only Luis Garcia Jr. in Washington fared worse at -17.
Starting a few days after the December 2025 trade that brought him to Pittsburgh, Lowe began chatting with Pirates infield coach Chris Truby about his pre-pitch work and flipped that into a Gold Glove nomination.
Though Brice Turang ultimately won, Lowe was worth 14 DRS, which was tied for 15th among all defenders. Lowe also had a Fielding Run Value (per Baseball Savant) of 12 that was surpassed by just 13 MLB players this season, regardless of position.
General manager Ben Cherington has maintained that the Pirates remain interested in bringing Lowe back, although there’s a lot that will go into those discussions.
“He’s been everything we could’ve hoped for as a player and also in the clubhouse,” Cherington said in September. “We know how his teammates feel about him. They expressed that, and that’s good. It would be a great outcome if he’s a Pirate next year.
"We just need to learn more about what opportunities that are out there for us, and he’s put himself in a strong position, too. More to learn on that front. But would be a great outcome if he’s a Pirate. Think the world of him and the job he’s done.”
Also Monday, the Mariners claimed Isaac Mattson off waivers. Mattson was outstanding for the Pirates in 2025, pitching to a 2.45 ERA in 44 games out of the bullpen. But the Pitt product and Erie native regressed this past season.
Mattson had a 5.35 ERA in 38 MLB games, ending the year on the injured list due to right hip inflammation and shuttling back and forth between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis.
In three seasons in Pittsburgh, Mattson logged a 3.83 ERA and 20 holds in 91 2/3 innings.
This story will be updated.
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.