Here are 6 bold predictions for the ALCS

October 10th, 2020

In one dugout at Petco Park, we have the Tampa Bay Rays, making their first appearance in the American League Championship Series since 2008. They represent the smartest, most efficiently run franchise in their sport, and you will likely hear a lot about that over the next few days.

Now, about that other dugout ... we pause now for 10 seconds of hand-wringing, sighing and eye-rolling. The Houston Astros are also in this ALCS. Ever heard of ‘em?

The Astros finished the regular season with a losing record, but they have upset two division winners, the Twins and A’s, on their way to becoming the second team in the Wild Card era to reach the ALCS in four straight years (Yankees, 1998-2001). Also, Houston has the AL’s best regular-season record since the start of the 2017 season and is attempting to play in its third World Series in four years.

OK, OK, that’s not why the Astros have people talking. Not their rookie pitchers or their core of great position players or their manager, the universally loved Dusty Baker.

The Astros were caught illegally stealing signs during the 2017 season, putting that World Series win and much more under a cloud of suspicion. Everyone loves a good morality play, and a lot of fans planned to show up at ballparks around the country to let the Astros know what they thought before the COVID-19 pandemic ended those hopes.

If you like a crisp, clean storyline, there you go: the upstart Rays against a team that is, well, not loved outside of Houston. Nor do the Astros seem to care whether they’re loved or not.

But the Astros are the most interesting team in this postseason. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, you’re likely to be following along as they attempt to knock off another division champ.

Here are six bold predictions for the 2020 ALCS.

1) You think traditional starting pitching roles are dead? They’re why the Rays will win the ALCS

Because this ALCS will potentially span seven games in seven days, Tampa Bay’s biggest advantage is that it has three elite starters -- Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow -- capable of pitching into the sixth inning. Tampa Bay starters accomplished that in three of five postseason victories, while Houston’s starters have finished five innings once in their five victories.

2) George Springer will show why he’ll be the most coveted free-agent position player

He just celebrated his 31st birthday, which injects a dash of uncertainty into his upcoming free agency. But to watch him every day is to appreciate why he would make any team better. Not only has he helped to redefine the way teams look at the role of a leadoff hitter -- slugging 138 home runs with an .862 OPS over the last five seasons -- but his smile and energy have set a tone for the Astros.

3) MLB teams will not copycat the Rays' bullpen formula

They’ll try, but they won’t succeed. The Rays have a unique ability to identify talent and to get them to buy into a job in a bullpen that has no roles. Pete Fairbanks touched 100.4 mph in Game 5 against the Yankees. Diego Castillo hit 98.1 mph. Nick Anderson may be the most unhittable of all with his elite spin, velocity and location. During the regular season, 12 Rays earned a save, and four of them also started games. The bullpen is so good that manager Kevin Cash didn’t push any of his main guys. None of Tampa Bay's starters qualified for the ERA title, and they completed six innings just nine times in the 60-game season, tied with the Tigers and Red Sox for fewest in the Majors.

4) Cash will be the biggest star in this ALCS

Oh boy, Cash is going to hate reading that. He swats away praise so routinely that most people don’t try anymore. “I hate it,” he’ll say. “It’s about players. This game is about players.” The thing is, Cash will never get the credit he deserves. First, his boss, general manager Erik Neander, is brilliant. Second, Cash deflects, deflects. But his people skills -- to know him is to like him -- as well as his sense of humor and ability to utilize the reams of data he receives, all while understanding what players want from a manager, make him arguably the best.

5) Lance McCullers Jr. will be the Astros' most important player

McCullers potentially gives Houston the best chance to win, because when he’s at his best, there are few better. His first season back from Tommy John surgery has not gone smoothly and even required a late-season cleanup procedure on his right elbow. McCullers went four innings in his only postseason start this year, but Astros fans haven’t forgotten how critical he was to securing the 2017 World Series title.

6) America will be reminded that there are reasons to enjoy the Astros -- there, I said it

What’s that you say? No forgive and forget? How about you loved them once, you can love them again? Besides, the reason you enjoyed watching them so much in 2017 has been on display this postseason. To see a bunch of people enjoy their jobs as much as these guys is cool to see. Sure, the sign-stealing deal has turned fans against them. Even worse, the Astros didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory last spring with a series of lackluster apologies. Now, they’ve found their swagger after a 29-31 regular season. Go ahead and enjoy them. You know you want to.