When it comes to the Braves' success in 2026, the difference between a winning season and a losing one may not be new manager Walt Weiss, former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., former Cy Young lefty Chris Sale or even the rest of an iffy rotation that seems held together by duct tape and prayer.
No, the biggest key to whether Atlanta has a good season or another bad one may come down to two-time All-Star third baseman Austin Riley, who enters the season coming off back-to-back disappointing campaigns that were defined by injuries and underperformance -- not unlike the Braves' past two seasons as a whole.
Yes, Riley is that important to Atlanta's success. While this may send some Braves fans into a panic after his 2024 and 2025 campaigns, there is a huge bit of good news: Austin Riley, or rather, AUSTIN RILEY, appears to be back.
The former MVP candidate just concluded one of the best Spring Trainings of his life, hitting .357 with five homers and a 1.237 OPS across 17 games. Sure, it's "just" Spring Training. But it's an unquestionably good sign for Riley and the Braves. Because here's the blunt truth: The Braves need more from Austin Riley.
Playing up to the contract
Since signing a 10-year, $212 million contract extension on Aug. 1, 2022 -- the biggest contract in Braves history -- Riley has struggled to produce the superstar-type numbers to match that deal. He's hit .262 with a .794 OPS since the extension, with most of the downturn occurring over the past two seasons, during which he's averaged just 17 home runs and 106 games played.
Some of the regression can be attributed to a broken hand in 2024 and a sports hernia in '25, both of which ended his seasons in August. But even when healthy, Riley has not looked much like the player who averaged 36 homers per season from 2021-23, a span during which he also produced three straight seasons of 6.0 bWAR or higher and finished in the top seven in NL MVP voting each year.
Whiffs up, chase contact down
A few things have contributed to Riley's struggles the past two years.
First, while he's continued to make contact on pitches in the strike zone at roughly his career average (79 percent), he's made significantly less contact when he's chased pitches outside the zone. His chase contact rates of 49.8 percent in 2024 and 48.9 percent in 2025, were both noticeably below his career norm of 52.3 percent. Meanwhile, his 29.5 percent whiff rate on all pitches last season was his highest percentage since 2020.
Riley has also struggled a lot more with breaking balls and offspeed pitches. His .232 average on breaking balls last season was his lowest mark since 2019, his rookie year. Meanwhile, after hitting .343 on offspeed pitches in 2023, Riley's average on the pitch dropped to .293 in 2024 and was down to .250 last season, while his 35.6 percent whiff rate on the pitch was his highest since 2020.
That contributed to a 28.6 percent strikeout rate last season, which was in the bottom 7 percent in baseball and above Riley's career mark of 26.1 percent. It also led to a 6 percent walk rate, his lowest since his rookie year.
But he still hits 'em hard
Even during his struggles the past two seasons, there's been plenty to like about Riley -- which is why he's such a critical part of the Braves' lineup. He still carries a hard-hit rate (50.2 percent last season) that's well above the MLB average (37 percent), while his average exit velocity last season was 92.3 mph, which was above his career average of 91.8 mph.
And, unsurprisingly, when Riley gets on base, the Braves tend to win. They went 78-67 (.538) the past two seasons when Riley got at least one hit, and they went 26-41 when he didn't. When he drove in at least one run, Atlanta went 47-23 (.671). When he didn't drive in any runs, the team went 57-85.
While Riley wasn't the reason the Braves won or lost, as a middle-of-the-order bat, his production is quite clearly tied to the team's overall success -- illustrating why it's so important for Atlanta that Riley find his stroke again in 2026.
Hope on the horizon
Riley's Spring Training performance was a reminder of why that 10-year extension made sense. With all "it's just Spring Training" caveats in mind, his 1.237 OPS was his highest over any 17-game span since July 2022, when he had a 1.344 OPS with 11 homers and was named NL Player of the Month.
His spring success wasn't all off Minor League talent, either. Last Saturday against the Red Sox, for example, he hit a homer and two doubles against Boston ace Garrett Crochet.
Health aside, his spring success can be attributed at least in part to offseason work with Atlanta hitting coach Tim Hyers, who studied video of Riley's best seasons to identify and correct a mechanical issue with his hip slide on swings.
Add it all up and Riley, who turns 29 on April 2, hasn't looked this good in a long time.
But, obviously, the real test begins Friday on Opening Day against the Royals. Most regular-season projections for Riley are somewhat modest, showing homer totals ranging from 25 to 33 and an OPS ranging from around .785 to just above .800.
Any of those projections would be an improvement over the past two seasons and could certainly help a Braves offense that will likely need to carry much of the load given the team's depleted starting rotation.
It would also give the Braves a consistent non-Acuña power threat from the right side, which would deepen a lefty-heavy lineup and lessen the likelihood that teams would try to pitch around Riley in big spots. But conversely, if he struggles again, it would give teams good reason to pitch around lefty boppers Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson and dare Riley to beat them.
But in a version of the season in which Riley produces at a level at least somewhat on par with what we saw in Spring Training -- think 35-plus homers, 100 RBIs and a .900-ish OPS -- that's the level of production the Braves envisioned when they signed him to a 10-year extension nearly four years ago.
That version of Riley is certainly the one the Braves want. But more importantly, it's the one they need.