Outside of Crews, who's best OF in '23 Draft?

May 3rd, 2023

It seems these days that people’s prospect interests are somewhat split, and for good reason.

Our Draft Top 150 is out, and even though the 2023 Draft is still more than two months away, people want to talk about the class and its top prospects. At the same time, though, the Minor League season has flipped the calendar to May, and while it’s still too early to draw too many conclusions, the hot (or not) starts of some prospects have many intrigued. So I split the difference this week, taking two questions from each bucket.

Outside of Dylan Crews, which outfield prospect would you want on your team for the future? -- @StevieDAles97

We answered this on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, and it’s a good one because this year’s Draft class is really impressive in terms of high-end outfield prospects. Crews is at the top, obviously, and he very well could go No. 1 overall to the Pirates.

After that, there are three others in the top five of our Draft Top 150 alone. Also from the college ranks, there’s Wyatt Langford at Florida, who has two years of performance in the SEC, sporting a 1.300 OPS as of Tuesday’s game this spring. Then there are the two high schoolers: Walker Jenkins in North Carolina and Max Clark in Indiana. And an argument could be made for any of them, and it’s looking like they could potentially go in any order.

The argument for Langford is the track record to go along with the tools. He can run, and some think he could play center field, though he’s not done it with the Gators. There are those who have told me they would take Jenkins if they were picking 1-1. He didn’t have a great summer because he was dinged up, but he’s been raking all spring, and he’s shown more athleticism and better speed with at least a chance to play center. Clark is the no-doubt center fielder among the trio and probably has the highest ceiling of the three as a legitimate five-tool guy, though playing against Indiana competition makes it a little tougher to evaluate. Both he and Jenkins are left-handed hitters, while Langford is right-handed, if that matters to anyone.

On the pod, I leaned towards the upside and lobbied for Clark. My colleague Jim Callis made a play for Jenkins. And we both agreed there isn’t a whole lot separating any of them, with three teams picking high getting the chance to get a really good impact player.

Does Paul Skenes have reliever risk as he lacks a 4th offering? Concerned about his ability to get LHH out at the next level with just a fastball and a 50 changeup. -- @2000sSports

I know @2000sSports is a Pittsburgh guy and is likely picking apart potential picks for his Buccos at No. 1. The quick answer is you shouldn’t be concerned about reliever risk with Skenes. But it gives me the opportunity to dig in a little deeper into the clear top arm in the Draft.

The LSU ace has obviously been dominant in his first year with the program after transferring from Air Force. He has a 1.93 ERA, 17.1 K/9 vs. just 1.7 BB/9 rates, a 0.75 WHIP and .159 batting average against.

But the question is about having weapons against lefties. So I took a look. According to Synergy, left-handed hitters have hit just .132 against Skenes this year (RHH are hitting .185). He misses left-handed bats with all three of his pitches. His changeup can be better-than-average, actually, when he lands it for strikes, something that admittedly needs work (and why it has a 50 grade right now). But he’s not afraid to throw it to lefties, throwing it to them more than any pitch other than the heater, and it’s elicited a 48 percent miss rate. He’s not afraid of throwing that slider to lefties, either, and gets a 50 percent miss rate while his fastball is missing left-handed bats at a 39 percent rate.

There aren’t that many big league starters who have four legitimate offerings, so I wouldn’t be concerned about that anyway. But at the end of the day, Skenes’ three pitches should be more than enough to assuage concerns about his ability to get hitters out in either batter’s box.

Who will be up first: Elly De La Cruz or Evan Carter? -- @Infield_Single

Shifting gears to the Minor League side of things, I think this call is pretty easy. As good as Carter, the Rangers’ top prospect, has been this year, I have to think De La Cruz will be the guy. Yes, he had a delayed start to the season with his hamstring injury, but he’s shaking off the rust now and getting his legs under him in Triple-A. It’s been a slow start, but the Reds clearly felt he was going to impact the big league club sooner rather than later, or perhaps they would have sent him to Double-A to start the year, given that he’s only 21.

Carter is only 20 and has played a total of 24 regular-season games above A ball. His hot start (.343/.500/.543) notwithstanding, I don’t see the Rangers rushing him to the big leagues. Now, if he gets bumped up to Triple-A and keeps raking, could that be a different story? Maybe, but if they continue to compete in the AL West, would they turn the keys to center field over to someone so young? Let’s revisit this in a while if Carter is Triple-A and performing well and EDLC is scuffling. But something tells me De La Cruz gets going and his tools get him to Cincy before Carter hits Arlington.

Do you see Spencer Jones as a potential breakthrough star in the Minors this year for the Yanks? -- @Djk_914

I don’t want to jump to too many conclusions with such a small sample, but there’s a chance the answer to this is yes. The Yankees took Jones out of Vanderbilt at the back end of the first round last year, and he promptly posted a .964 OPS in his pro debut last summer after finishing with a .370/.460/.644 line at Vandy.

He had a two-homer game to end his week last week and has a .940 OPS through 18 games with Class A Advanced Hudson Valley. The swing-and-miss is still a concern, and his 35.3 percent strikeout rate is not a way to have sustainable success. But there’s no doubt he’s getting to his power. If he can refine his approach -- he was better on that front last summer after signing -- then there’s a good chance it’s going to work. But he’s definitely caught our attention and has come up in conversations about potential Top 100 replacements in this opening month.