Opening Day at Busch Stadium on Thursday will feel much like any other Opening Day in St. Louis.
All the old legends will be there, from Ozzie Smith to Mark McGwire to Ted Simmons to Jim Edmonds. The players will be introduced and paraded around the warning track. The Clydesdales will march, the organist will play, the field will look fantastic and all that we know and love about Busch Stadium on Opening Day will still be there for all to see.
But it will, of course, be very, very different.
This is a season unlike any the Cardinals have had in more than two decades: They are aiming to be competitive, but this is more about building toward a brighter future than sweating the 2026 results. It would therefore seem nearly impossible to predict how such an unprecedented season is going to turn out. But I take that as a challenge!
Here are four bold predictions for what we may see from these Cardinals in 2026.
1. Their top three in innings pitched will be Matthew Liberatore … and Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins
Earlier this spring, the Cardinals were still weighing a six-man rotation, but they’ve backed away from that: The rotation will start out as Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy. But how will it end? That’s where this bold prediction comes in, going off the notion that this rotation will be in flux all year. So here’s my reasoning:
Of those five, Liberatore seems a lock to be in the rotation all year. He may be their best pitcher now, he’s young but won’t be on any sort of innings restriction, and there’s no reason to flip him at the Trade Deadline if he’s pitching well. The only way he’s not in the top three is if he gets hurt.
The other four all have question marks, though. May has health concerns and could be a trade chip if he pitches well. Leahy is in his first season as a starter. Pallante has a lot to prove after a subpar 2025. McGreevy might have the best chance of those four to stick in the rotation all year, but he has plenty to prove, too, after just 16 big league starts last year.
Enter Fitts and Dobbins, two of the pitchers acquired from the Red Sox in the Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras trades. Fitts wowed many in Spring Training and is certainly the first pitcher up if anyone falters or gets hurt; I’m still kind of surprised he’s not in the rotation already. Dobbins may actually be a better pitcher this year, and while he’s starting the season on the injured list, he should be ready to go soon. Expect to see both of those guys in the rotation before you know it. Once they get there, they’re unlikely to leave.
2. The team’s home run leader after the All-Star Break will be Joshua Báez
I had planned to do a whole “Nelson Velázquez will lead the Cardinals in homers” prediction a couple of days ago, but nope: The surprise success story of camp will surprisingly start the season at Triple-A Memphis, reportedly because of issues with opening up a spot for him on the 40-man roster. A spot will eventually open up -- they always do -- but not in time for him to lead the Cardinals in much of anything.
Besides, by the time it happens, it may be Báez’s turn. MLB Pipeline’s No. 87 prospect, who is on the 40-man (and thus is an easier callup than Velázquez anyway), was almost as impressive this spring as Velázquez and likely is only in the Minors because he hasn’t played at Triple-A yet. If he continues to knock the ball around the way he did in 2025, there may be no denying him. Either way, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be starting in the outfield from July on. And if he does? The homers are going to come.
3. Your starting catcher by the end of the year will be Leo Bernal
Had Jimmy Crooks made the Opening Day roster like I’d initially (and foolishly) predicted, you could make a case for him. However, it’s now obvious that Bernal (MLB Pipeline’s No. 98 prospect) has passed Crooks on the organization’s depth chart and, when it comes time to do late-season callups to show what’s coming for the future, Bernal should have that role nailed down.
It’s possible that Iván Herrera is the regular catcher by then, but it’s pretty unlikely that the Cardinals will put him back behind the plate that often, which means there’s a clear opening for Bernal to establish himself in a way Crooks wasn’t able to in late 2025. The Cardinals are flush with catching prospects, but Bernal is three years older than Rainiel Rodriguez (No. 37), who is coming fast -- but maybe not that fast. It’ll be time for Bernal by September, and maybe sooner.
4. The Cardinals are more likely to be over .500 than to lose 100 games
I do not think the Cardinals will reach .500 this year, much less make the playoffs. (I have them fourth in the NL Central in my season predictions, ahead of the Reds, who I think may be in trouble.) But don’t forget: This team finished 78-84 last year despite getting more than half their starts from Pallante, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde and getting subpar offensive seasons from Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and (shhh) Nolan Arenado. There were a lot of dead spots on the roster last year, is what I’m saying, and they still approached .500.
The roster looks different than it did last year, and it’s certainly less experienced. But it also has fewer of those dead spots, or at least it has better potential replacements for those than it did last year. This team probably isn’t going to seriously contend in 2026. But it’s certainly interesting. And it’s way, way too interesting to bottom out.
Strap in. The ride will occasionally be bumpy. But it will never, ever be boring.