NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Roster decisions made this time of year won’t make sense if you are only gauging immediate value. Taking the best 26 players north doesn’t create the same potential long-term value of constructing an Opening Day roster that maximizes the opportunity to optimize roster depth over an entire 162-game season.
What does this mean? Well, some of you might still be trying to make sense of the Braves’ decisions to send James Karinchak to Minor League camp and to option No. 22 prospect Hayden Harris to Triple-A Gwinnett on Wednesday. Why would you send these two relievers down, and in doing so, increase the possibility that journeyman José Suarez begins the season on Atlanta’s roster?
By mapping out the first two weeks of the season, we might gain a better feel for the reason. As you’ve likely read by now, the Braves are scheduled to play each of the season’s first 13 days. There’s a good chance they’ll use a six-man rotation during this stretch.
But this doesn’t mean they would need to begin the season with six starters. Remember in 2023, when Dylan Dodd wasn’t placed on the Opening Day roster despite knowing he was going to start one of the first five games? This decision allowed the Braves to begin the season with an extra reliever, which ended up being Michael Tonkin, who was out of Minor League options.
Looking back to when the Braves’ 2023 Opening Day roster was announced, I wrote that Tonkin would likely be the odd man out once Dodd’s contract was purchased. Injuries to Max Fried and Collin McHugh were among the developments that led to Tonkin hanging on long after Dodd arrived.
Had the Braves put Dodd on their Opening Day roster, Tonkin would have likely been the odd man out. The veteran journeyman was out of options. Would he have been claimed off waivers if he hadn’t been placed on Atlanta’s 40-man roster? Would he have stayed in the organization?
Fortunately, those questions never had to be answered. Tonkin didn’t just stick around for a few days. He ended up making 45 appearances and totaling the fourth-most innings (80) for a Braves team that won 104 games.
So, yeah there is potential value in holding on to a “last roster option” as long as possible.
Getting back to this year’s decisions. The Braves’ first five starters will be Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder. The sixth game is an afternoon start against the A’s on April 1. Would the Braves be fools to bring Sale back to start this game on regular rest? Not necessarily. But I think it would be foolish to not at least think about working with six starters during that 13-game stretch.
How might they do this? Well, Sale, Strider, López, Holmes and Elder would all be on the Opening Day roster. The options to start that sixth game would be Martín Pérez, Suarez, Didier Fuentes (Atlanta's No. 3 prospect) or JR Ritchie (Braves' No. 2 prospect, No. 90 overall).
Suarez and Fuentes are on the 40-man, and the former is out of options. Could the Braves find a comparable 4-A pitcher if they were to DFA Suarez? Sure. But maybe it’s best to at least carry him through that first week or two to see exactly where he’s needed. If you haven’t heard, starting-pitching depth is at a premium around here.
Do you remember how the 2024 season started? Fried was chased during the first inning of his season debut and Strider’s right elbow blew in his second start. You never know what will happen, but you always know you need depth.
So, let’s construct the Braves’ Opening Day 13-man pitching staff with depth being the focus:
Locks: Sale, Strider, López, Holmes, Elder, Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, Dylan Lee, Tyler Kinley, Aaron Bummer, Joel Payamps
Options for the final two spots: Dodd, José Suarez, Fuentes, Pérez, Ritchie
Dodd remains in big league camp, while Harris was optioned on Wednesday. Part of this decision was that Dodd gives the Braves another multi-inning option.
If Dodd were given one of those two spots, the last spot may go to José Suarez. Why? Because Fuentes, Pérez and Ritchie can all be sent to the Minors without risk of losing them. If Suarez is needed within the first week, there’s a chance he would be subsequently DFA’d to optimize roster depth over the days that follow.
He could then be replaced by Pérez or somebody else the Braves acquire as players become available once other teams make final roster decisions. In due time, Karinchak will be part of Atlanta’s bullpen. But right now, the focus is on creating and preserving as much pitching depth as possible.