So, Braves fans: How nervous are you right now? Not long ago, this team looked like it might be building a dynasty that could rival their 1990s clubs. They won the World Series in 2021, they won 101 games in 2022, they won 104 in 2023, and they somehow made the playoffs last year despite some buzzard’s luck in the injury department that made you wonder if that roster was somehow cursed. They haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017. This should be the golden age.
But this year, so far, has been a mess. Both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider missed most of the first two months. The team started 0-7. They’re currently not just four games under .500 and 10 games out of first place in the NL East, they’re actually in fourth place -- behind the Nationals.
It’s still relatively early, and the Braves certainly are no stranger to strong second halves. But take it from someone who lives in Georgia: Braves fans are nervous right now. Can the Braves turn it around? Is the seven-year run of making the postseason -- the third-longest run in baseball, behind the Dodgers and Astros -- in danger? Here are three reasons to believe … and three reasons to be worried.
3 reasons to believe
This was a historic offense just two years ago, and those guys are all still here.
Two seasons ago, the Braves had one of the best offenses in the history of baseball, leading the Majors with 947 runs, which was 41 more than the runner-up, the Dodgers.
This was an overwhelming offense. And that offense looks … pretty similar to the current one. Acuña is here. So are Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies, and Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna, and Michael Harris II. Those players have gotten older, but not dramatically so: There are only two guys over 30 (Ozuna at 34 and Olson at 31). They hit then. They haven’t forgotten how to.
They still have aces atop their rotation.
Chris Sale finally won his long-sought Cy Young Award last year, and he very much deserved it. But he has been close to the same pitcher this year: His strikeout rate is the same, his walk and hit rates are up a little, he’s just as durable, if not more so. (It is very wild to see the oft-injured Sale leading the Majors in starts.) He’s still an ace. Strider is still working his way back, but we’ve seen how good he is when he’s fully healthy: He’s arguably better than Sale! Spencer Schwellenbach has a 3.13 ERA, an ideal No. 3. Those three guys give you a great chance to win every single night. Who wouldn’t want those three atop their rotation?
They’re having all sorts of bad luck.
If the Braves don’t feel like a fourth-place team that’s four games under .500 to you, there’s a reason for that: All the underlying metrics say that’s not really what they are. They have a plus-13 run differential; that’s better than the AL West-leading Mariners and essentially the same as the Padres. Clay Davenport’s Adjusted Standings has them firmly among the better teams in the NL. They’re in the top half of baseball in nearly every pitching and hitting category. The problem? Close games. They’re 9-14 in one-run games; only the White Sox and Red Sox have more one-run losses. Seven of their last eight losses over their most recent 13 games have been by one run. It's not like their bullpen has been blowing leads left and right, either. They’re just having terrible luck right now. That luck is bound to change … right?
3 reasons to worry
They’re running out of pitching depth.
The injury that will likely keep AJ Smith-Shawver out the rest of the year is a brutal one. He’ll likely be replaced by Bryce Elder, who hasn’t been bad, but you’re really starting to dig into the pitching depth that was allowing the Braves to bring along Strider slowly. Reynaldo López is still out, and while the Braves are hopeful he might return after the All-Star break, that’s just hope, and that’s still a long way away. Grant Holmes has helped keep the Braves’ head above water as a replacement starter, but it’s certainly up in the air how sustainable that is. And heaven forbid they have another injury to any of those top starters. The Braves are running out of guys.
The lineup is much thinner than it once was.
Remember that 2023 lineup referenced above? Well, a big reason that lineup was so good was because it was so deep. Top to bottom, everyone in the Braves’ lineup was hitting; there were just no soft spots. That is no longer the case. The shortstop position has been a black hole all year, with Atlanta shortstops combining for a .548 OPS, and left fielders posting an identical mark. Harris, once so promising, has fallen off a cliff offensively; he has a .263 OBP. Albies’ offensive struggles of the last two years are continuing. Even with the return of Acuña, there are soft spots in this lineup. And these Braves cannot afford that.
The division, and really the whole NL Wild Card race, provide a steep uphill climb.
Heading into the year, you could sketch a clear outline of the NL playoff chase. The Dodgers would likely own the NL West. The Cubs were the clear favorite in the NL Central. The Phillies, Mets and Braves would be fighting it out in the NL East, leaving, essentially, one Wild Card spot for someone, probably someone from the NL West, to grab. But it hasn’t played out that way. The Phillies and Mets are pulling away from everyone else in the NL East. The Giants and Padres have made big leaps forward in the NL West, and the D-backs haven’t packed it up, either. The Cardinals are much better than anyone thought, and the Brewers and Reds are on the way up as well. It may take 88 wins, or more, to get in the playoffs in the NL this year.
The Braves have to play like a 100-win team the rest of the way to reach that 88-win plateau, and they’ll have to climb over a lot of teams to do it. There are currently eight teams above them in the Wild Card race. The Braves may be better than most of those teams. But they’ll have to be a lot better than them to climb over all of them.
The good news for Atlanta fans? The Braves are no stranger to starting slow and finishing strong. In their title season of 2021, they started 40-41. And a year later, they were 23-27 before getting hot and winning 101 games. The Braves have been trying to claw their way back from their 0-7 start from the very beginning of the season. They’ve shown they can come back from slow starts before, but they are running out of time.