This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SAN DIEGO -- Craig Stammen’s lineups are a daily adventure.
I’m here for it.
Through 13 games this season, the Padres have used 13 different lineups. It would be one thing if Stammen was merely tinkering at the bottom of the order. But he’s not. The leadoff spot is re-evaluated every day. Some of the biggest stars have been given early off-days. Ramón Laureano and Jake Cronenworth in particular are liable to hit anywhere on any night.
If you’ve read this newsletter regularly, you probably know my feelings on lineup talk:
1. It's overrated. It’s much more important that you have nine good hitters in the starting lineup than the order in which those hitters hit.
2. But so what? Who doesn’t love a good lineup discussion? It’s not like there’s zero value in setting a quality lineup. Even if that value is minimal, it’s worth discussing. And more importantly ... it’s fun to discuss!
With that in mind, here’s what I think I’ve learned about Stammen’s lineup preferences through two weeks of games:
1. It probably won’t go this way all season
On multiple occasions, Stammen has expressed a preference for this to settle. When? He can’t quite say. But when the Padres’ offense gets rolling, the day-to-day changes won’t be quite so drastic.
“Once we find that rhythm of: ‘This is our lineup, and this fits pretty well,’ that’ll be what it is,” Stammen said. “I think we’ve got certain people where we feel comfortable in certain spots, and those spots haven’t moved a ton.
“But it’s also based on … what starting pitcher we’re facing. Maybe past at-bats or anything we come up analytically that says this profile swing fits this profile pitcher. All those things are on the table. We’re just trying to win the game that day.”
It’s already clear that Stammen is more into lineup shuffling than his predecessor, Mike Shildt. Shildt loved a set lineup. Stammen, on the other hand, acknowledged that some days he might shake it up just for the sake of shaking it up.
Not to say one of those methods is right. But the value in Stammen’s method is this: There's enough data out there on matchups and swing profiles, that the Padres' optimal lineup legitimately does change on a day-to-day basis. It’s worth striving for that. And Stammen is.
2. The big picture takes precedent
Manny Machado sat on Wednesday in Pittsburgh. A year ago, he didn’t sit until mid-September.
“He’s not going to take a ton of time off,” Stammen said. “He’s one of our main players, going to get to play quite a bit. But we can be very strategic of when he gets a day off and how we use him. For him to play 162 games at age 34, that’s very unrealistic."
Meanwhile, Laureano has started on the bench twice already -- despite the fact that he was the Padres' best hitter through their first 10 games. Laureano has played nine seasons in the big leagues. He’s played 100 games only three times and never more than 132.
“We’re just trying to keep these guys healthy for a full season,” Stammen said. “... Hopefully we can have a longer term view and, strategically, we can trust we’re going to be a good team throughout the whole year.”
3. Stammen sees value in reps for his bench players
Stammen would almost certainly be more hesitant to give players like Machado and Laureano a day off if he didn’t trust his bench so much. But thus far, Miguel Andujar and Nick Castellanos have been key contributors, too.
Then again, it’s also one of Stammen’s core beliefs that it’s important to give semi-regular reps to his bench players. It’s why Bryce Johnson and Ty France have already gotten multiple starts.
“The biggest significance is everybody feels like they’re a part of the team and they’re contributing to our success,” Stammen said. “There’s going to be a certain amount of main players that play a majority of the games.
“But a lot of times your success is determined by those … little puzzle pieces that fit themselves in, and figuring out where they actually fit -- that determines those extra few wins you get in a season.”
4. The leadoff spot remains a problem
You know I think lineup construction is generally overblown. One thing I’ll acknowledge: If there’s a spot where production is paramount, it’s the leadoff spot. That’s the guy guaranteed to get the most at-bats on any given night. That’s the guy setting the tone from the start.
The Padres have been abysmal in the leadoff spot.
Entering play Thursday, the Padres’ .369 OPS in the leadoff spot was by far the worst mark in the Majors. Their leadoff hitter has yet to homer this season. Not just leading off a game or an inning, but, like, at all.
That’s not good enough. Laureano, Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all done good things this season. But not out of the leadoff spot.
That needs to change. The Padres need more from their leadoff man.