The latest on Mason Miller and the reliever trade market

One of the pressing questions that will define this year's Trade Deadline -- 6 p.m. ET on Monday -- has come into focus.

Will the Padres trade Mason Miller?

Among players not named Tarik Skubal, Miller is the hottest name swirling in the rumor mill. Obviously, there’s plenty of interest. Nearly every team could use a reliever, and Miller is the best in the game, with high-octane heat and a wipeout slider.

So, with five days to go until the Deadline, let’s take a look at where things stand with the Padres, Miller and the relief market.

Where do the Padres stand?

This time of year, a few days can make all the difference. That may be happening with the Padres (54-53), who carry a four-game winning streak into Wednesday night’s game against the Rockies at Petco Park. San Diego now sits 1.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League, which is currently held by an NL West foe, the D-backs. Per FanGraphs, the Padres’ playoff odds are at 17.5%, the highest they’ve been since the end of June.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required) reported last week that Padres general manager AJ Preller was hoping to be in a position to buy at the Trade Deadline. Five losses in seven games out of the All-Star break didn’t bode well for that agenda. But things may have changed. San Diego has five more games before the Aug. 3 Deadline to continue pushing the needle in that direction.

What would it take to trade Miller?

Any conversation about Miller’s trade value should start with a reminder of how good he is. He is, hands down, the best closer in baseball, the sort of player who shortens games and is capable of carrying a team through October. He has a 0.81 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings, leading all qualified relievers with a 49.1% strikeout rate and ranking second in batting average against (.137).

That sort of pedigree is why the Padres paid a fortune to acquire Miller at the Deadline last season, parting with prized shortstop Leo De Vries. The 19-year-old De Vries, now with the A’s, is the No. 2 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline.

On top of all that, Miller is not a rental. In fact, he is far from it. The 27-year-old is under club control for three more seasons, meaning he won’t reach free agency until after the 2029 campaign. Put all that together, and the asking price is going to be exceptionally high.

On Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan said that the Padres have told teams that if they’re serious about acquiring Miller, “then nobody is off limits in your organization.” Meanwhile, MLB Network insider Joel Sherman (New York Post subscription required) reported that teams who have dealt with San Diego believe that a Miller trade would take a two-tiered package of elite prospects and young talent capable of contributing in the Majors right away.

Who are some of the other prominent reliever trade candidates?

If the Padres decide to hold onto Miller, they could still be active in the relief market. Left-handed setup man Adrian Morejon -- the other half of San Diego’s elite bullpen duo -- could be the best reliever dealt, if the Padres make him available.

Morejon, 27, has a 3.14 ERA in 50 games this season, with 64 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings. He throws as hard as anyone from the left-hand side, averaging 99.5 mph on his sinker, and touts some of the best pure “stuff” in the game. Unlike Miller, Morejon will be a free agent at year’s end. There’s a window where the Padres can stay in contention and trade Morejon, using the return haul to address other needs, like finding a high-quality rotation arm.

Beyond Morejon, there’s plenty of interest in the Mets’ Luke Weaver, with teams expected to pursue the right-hander “aggressively,” per WIll Sammon of The Athletic (subscription required). Weaver still has another year of club control, and his $12.5 million salary for ‘27 is reasonable for a high-leverage reliever. That’s likely to boost his value, as is his dominance. Weaver has a 1.93 ERA in 42 innings this season, and a 0.30 ERA since May 1 that ranks the lowest in the Majors -- Miller’s 0.61 ERA in that span is second lowest.

Perhaps a club will take a flier on Jeff Hoffman, as the underwhelming Blue Jays careen toward a potential sell-off. Hoffman, 33, lost his closer’s job earlier this year and has a 4.11 ERA in 49 games. But he’s been a bit better lately, patching together three consecutive scoreless appearances, and still has the swing-and-miss stuff that teams covet from backend arms: His 34.8% strikeout rate is a career high and seventh best among qualified relievers.

Which contenders have the greatest need for bullpen help?

In an appearance for Bleacher Report on Friday, MLB Network insider Jon Heyman said that he considers the Yankees, Pirates and Mariners as the top three suitors for Miller.

Sherman reported (New York Post subscription required) that the Padres had a scout at every level watching the Yankees last weekend. New York would love to add another swing-and-miss arm at the end of its bullpen, complementing closer David Bednar and Fernando Cruz. But would the Yankees be able to part with, say, infielder George Lombard Jr., the club’s top prospect and the No. 20 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline? He is reportedly a non-starter in trade talks.

The struggles of Opening Day closer Dennis Santana -- who was designated for assignment earlier this month -- created a void in a Pirates bullpen that is predominantly left-handed. Miller would surely change that. Overall, Pittsburgh relievers have combined for a 4.41 ERA, seventh highest in the Majors.

The Mariners have a closer they trust in two-time All-Star Andrés Muñoz, who has been much better lately, with a 2.70 ERA since June 1. While setup man Matt Brash should return at some point next month from a lat strain, Seattle would prefer not to rely exclusively on a player returning from injury to strengthen its bullpen.

Another team to watch here could be the Phillies, who, despite having All-Star closer Jhoan Duran, are still in need of relief help. Brad Keller, signed to a two-year deal in the offseason, is expected to miss the remainder of the season, and lefty José Alvarado has a 5.85 ERA in 46 appearances.