Inbox: Top OF prospects? Chisholm's potential?

December 12th, 2018

I often say that the College World Series and the Arizona Fall League are my two favorite baseball events every year. The Scouts of the Year reception at the Winter Meetings may be No. 3 on the list, though I didn't make it to Las Vegas for the 2018 festivities.
This year's winners were Phillies international scouting director Sal Agostinelli, Rockies special assistant Danny Montgomery, Yankees vice president of domestic amateur scouting Damon Oppenheimer and Red Sox special assignment scout Brad Sloan. Agostinelli, Oppenheimer and Sloan all have contributed to World Series championships with their current teams, while Montgomery has been integral to Colorado's success as one of the franchise's first hires. Jonathan Mayo will have more on the deserving honorees this week.
Congratulations to all of them, as well as to Jayson Stark, the winner of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award for meritorious contributions to baseball writing. Stark has been on the baseball beat for more than four decades, and there may not be anyone who ever has covered the sport with a greater combination of reporting skills, humor and grace.

Eliminating (Nationals) and (Astros) because they finished the season in the big leagues, the obvious answer is to take the top three outfielders on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list.
Left fielder (White Sox, No. 3 overall) rivals the Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (No. 1) as the best offensive prospect in baseball. Center fielder Jo Adell (Angels, No. 15) has electrifying tools and has silenced doubters who wondered whether he could solve pro pitching. Right fielder Alex Kirilloff (Twins, No. 10) led the Minors in doubles (44), extra-base hits (71) and total bases (296) this year after missing all of 2017 following Tommy John surgery.
I've been reading several glowing reports about D-backs shortstop Jazz Chisholm, some extreme, some more toned down. How do you gauge a positive bump like this without going overboard or not respecting it enough? What do you personally think his floor and ceiling were prior to and after his strong Arizona Fall League performance?
-- Matt Y., Norfolk, Va.

Chisholm is for real. He only got to play two games per week in the AFL because he was a taxi-squad player, but he excelled to the tune of a .442/.489/.767 line with three homers and seven steals in 10 contests. The AFL is skewed in favor of hitters, and that's a small sample size, but his tools were exciting.
I don't think Chisholm's brief dominance in the AFL changed his ceiling or floor as much as it just revealed his potential to a wider audience. He was similarly dynamic in the last six weeks of the season after a promotion to Class A Advanced, where he batted .329/.369/.597 with 10 homers and nine steals in 36 games.

Only 20 years old, Chisholm, Arizona's No. 3 prospect, has the upside of a 20-20 player who can make highlight plays at shortstop. He needs to do a better job of controlling the strike zone after posting a 149/39 strikeout-to-walk ratio between two Class A levels, so there's a chance he doesn't hit enough to become a regular, but at worst, he should be a utilityman capable of playing all over the diamond and providing some pop and speed.

It's the season of giving, so I'll provide you with not one but four prospects (two recent trade acquisitions and two 2018 Draftees) who bear watching even if they couldn't crack the top 10 on our Cardinals Top 30 Prospects list from July.
Left-hander Genesis Cabrera and outfielder Lane Thomas could possibly contribute in St. Louis next season. Acquired from the Rays in the Tommy Pham trade this past summer, Cabrera can run his fastball up to 98 mph and pairs it with a power slider. Thomas arrived from the Blue Jays in 2017 in exchange for international bonus pool money and broke out with 27 homers and 17 steals this past season, a testament to his all-around tools.
First baseman Luken Baker, a supplemental second-round choice in June, possesses considerable raw power and batted .319/.386/.460 in his pro debut. Left-hander Steven Gingery slid to the fourth round after having Tommy John surgery at Texas Tech, but he had arguably the best changeup and some of the best pitchability in the 2018 Draft.

Jonathan Mayo had the privilege of manning the Inbox right after MLB Pipeline unveiled its 2019 Draft Top 50 Prospects list last week, which made for plenty of fun Draft-related questions. I'm so jealous that I'm going to steal one of the questions that didn't make his final cut.
The highest ceilings belong to the top two players on our Top 50 list. Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman is a switch-hitter with impressive bat-to-ball skills, burgeoning power, a strong and accurate arm and fine receiving skills. Colleyville (Texas) Heritage High shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has plus power, speed, arm strength and defensive ability.

As for the highest floor, that belongs to California first baseman Andrew Vaughn, the reigning Golden Spikes Award winner who's the best offensive player available and an almost sure bet to hit. His prep counterpart is Hagerty High (Oviedo, Fla.) outfielder Riley Greene, the top high-school bat in the Draft and one who projects to hit for both average and power.