Will road trip to start 2nd half determine Cardinals' plans at Deadline?

The presumption at the beginning of the season was that the Cardinals would be sellers at the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. Several of their offseason moves, most notably the signing of right-hander Dustin May to a one-year deal, seemed to point to that exact strategy. May, along with Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero and anyone else who might draw interest, were thought to be on the market. The focus was not on this year -- it was on the future.

While those players could still be moved, the outlook for the Cardinals has undeniably shifted with the Deadline approaching. The team has been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball in the first half, with the youngest roster in baseball within just one game of a National League Wild Card spot, and playing some of the most exciting and inspiring baseball Cardinals fans have seen in a few years.

Record at the break: 50-45 (3rd in NL Central, 8.5 games back)
Record at the break last year: 51-46 (Third in NL Central, 6.5 games back)
Playoff odds: 31.6% (via FanGraphs)
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .499 (Tied for 14th-hardest in MLB)

St. Louis heads into the break five games over .500, which is exactly where the club was last year when the Cardinals sold heavily at the Deadline. That was largely because the last year's Cardinals team lost five of six to start the second half, making their decision clear in the week heading into the Deadline. If that happens this year -- and like last year, the second half starts with a West Coast swing -- president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom’s decision will essentially be made for him. But this year’s team? The vibes are completely different -- and in the best way possible.

The Cardinals are highly unlikely to trade future assets for short-term gains; the goal is still to bolster the farm system and build for 2027 and beyond. But if the Cardinals remain in the race, it’s difficult to imagine a dramatic selling spree. It appears likely the Cardinals will do a little bit of both, though, by holding on to their long-term pieces while perhaps moving players who aren’t a part of the team’s future that have a readily available replacement to stay in contention this year. For example, a trade of Nootbaar could open a spot for MLB Pipeline’s No. 47 prospect, Joshua Báez (Cardinals' No. 3). May, if dealt, could open a spot for No. 6 prospect Quinn Mathews.

It may just depend on what offers the Cardinals receive from other clubs. But even with Bloom and company keeping their eyes on the horizon, there’s no question that this team also wants to win now while it has a chance. There is no reason to believe the team won't be given every opportunity to do so.

Biggest need

It’s clearly an innings-eating starting pitcher. Cardinals starters continue to hold up and provide valuable innings despite having one of the lower strikeout rates in baseball. But as we saw in a brutal home series against the Brewers before the break, the Cardinals have no margin for error or injury with a thin pitching staff. Another starter would give St. Louis a little breathing room and ease some pressure on an increasingly overworked bullpen. And if the Cardinals end up selling? Young pitching will be the focus across the board.

Biggest chip

Nootbaar looks healthier than he has in years -- to the point that he can even play center field -- and he is still under team control for 2027. His metrics have long pointed to better results than he has sometimes seen on the field, and there's reason to believe another team would want to unlock that.

Key player for second half

Masyn Winn is the easy answer. His defense remains Platinum Glove-quality, but he has regressed offensively in each of his three full seasons in the Majors. He showed improvement at the plate in June and the first part of July, though, and if he can just get back up to a league-average hitter, he’ll be an All-Star player who could be the next centerpiece the team builds around.

Determining factor

The first road trip out of the break could decide the direction for the rest of the season. Last year, the Cardinals went 1-5 in a trip to Arizona and Colorado, starting a slide that led to the team being sellers at the Deadline. They have another West Coast trip after the All-Star break this year, heading to Arizona and Anaheim. Another 1-5 trip could mean a similar outcome to last season -- but a 5-1 trip? That could make the Cardinals go for it.