CLEVELAND -- Numbers don’t always tell the story of a baseball game, but sometimes they help.
The Royals mustered just one hit on Tuesday afternoon in their 2-1 walk-off loss against the Guardians at Progressive Field. It helped that the one hit was a home run, but not that it was the only ball that fell for a hit all game.
It also helped that the Royals walked eight times, but not that they struck out 14 times.
Two other numbers give important context, though: 33 and three.
At 33 degrees, Tuesday was the third-coldest documented first pitch temperature in Royals history, following April 7, 2007, at Detroit (29 degrees) and April 8, 2018, at Cleveland (32 degrees).
Neither team was hitting much in that sort of bitter cold that reminded players -- at least those from the Midwest -- more of their Little League games than Major League games. The Guardians were just able to take advantage of the few opportunities they had, and they had the final one in the ninth inning to set up an important rubber match Wednesday for the series.
With one out, CJ Kayfus lined a ball through the right side of the infield, followed by Bo Naylor’s pinch-hit walk that put Kayfus in scoring position. Royals reliever John Schreiber got to two strikes on No. 9 hitter Brayan Rocchio, but Rocchio snuck a ball through the right side for a walk-off hit.
“Walking guys -- I’m not trying to give away free bases,” Schreiber said. “But got two guys on there, trying to get a ground ball. Couple got through. It is what it is.”
Schreiber was in the game in the ninth because high-leverage lefty Matt Strahm and closer Lucas Erceg were unavailable after they both pitched back-to-back days with a heavy workload Sunday. The Royals were also trying to stay away from Steven Cruz and give Luinder Avila more time before rejoining the bullpen after his 73-pitch start on Saturday. Nick Mears had thrown a scoreless eighth inning against the heart of the Guardians’ order.
“Johnny puts the ball on the ground a lot,” manager Matt Quatraro said. “It’s really the walk that hurt us, putting the runner in scoring position. We knew it was going to be all lefties. That’s not the ideal situation, but we have a lot of faith in him.”
Schreiber has allowed three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to start the year, but the Royals need him to perform in important innings for them, especially with their bullpen shorthanded. With Carlos Estévez on the injured list, all the relievers shift up on the leverage depth chart.
Despite the ending, Tuesday was a well-pitched game, probably in part because pitchers get the advantage over hitters in the cold. Royals starter Noah Cameron allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out five.
“I was warm the whole time,” Cameron said. “Kind of one of those days, just kind of grind through it. Obviously, just hope to break some bats, hope to get some weak contact because they’re obviously uncomfortable up there -- a lot more than I am.”
Cameron’s batterymate, Carter Jensen, gave the Royals an early lead with his second home run in as many days, this one a 112.5 mph rope in the second inning. That’s the second-hardest hit of Jensen’s young career (his 112.7 mph home run against the A’s last September is the hardest). And coupled with his 111.2 mph home run on Monday night, Jensen became the only player so far this season with multiple 111-plus mph home runs -- and the first Royals player with multiple in a calendar month since Salvador Perez in September 2021.
In the eighth, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino walked with one out. Lane Thomas pinch-ran for Pasquantino, and he and Witt executed a double steal to have runners on second and third with two outs for Jensen.
But Jensen struck out swinging on reliever Shawn Armstrong’s cutter.
“I’m still kicking myself in my last at-bat about striking out with runners in scoring position,” said Jensen, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Royals' No. 1 prospect. “Have to go back to the workshop and continue trusting in myself.”
Underlying numbers suggest the Royals’ offense is starting to click. They rank fifth in the Majors in hard-hit percentage (44.3%) and fourth in barrel percentage (11.1%), with the eighth lowest chase percentage (27.8%).
Like on Tuesday, there are ingredients for success -- the Royals just have to make sure results follow.
“We didn’t do enough to move the ball at times,” Quatraro said. “We had the baserunners, we had opportunities -- obviously, the hits eluded us.”