Of all the annual Baseball Writers' Association of America Awards, each league's Rookie of the Year honor gives us the best glimpse into the future of the game. Many Rookies of the Year past have gone on to multiple All-Star selections and even Hall of Fame careers.
What's in store for this year's winner in each league? Well, first we need to find out who the winners are, and with the announcement coming on Monday at 7 p.m. ET on MLB Network, it's a good time to look at why each finalist has a case to win:
American League
Kevin McGonigle, 2B, Tigers
What McGonigle did in his rookie season, having bypassed Triple-A ball to make the Tigers’ Opening Day roster, was impressive for any player of any experience level. McGonigle led all AL players, not just rookies, with 7.1 bWAR. He became the first rookie to post at least 97 runs, 28 doubles, 18 home runs, 72 RBIs and 95 walks since Ted Williams in 1939. He was second among AL players with 6.0 offensive bWAR, trailing only Astros slugger and MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez, and sixth with 1.9 defensive bWAR.
McGonigle is the fifth rookie to post at least 95 walks and 95 runs scored since the Rookie of the Year Award was established in 1947, joining Aaron Judge (2017), Hall of Famer Joe Morgan (1965), Jim Gilliam (1953) and Al Rosen (1950).
With 168 hits, 95 walks and three hit-by-pitches, McGonigle is the fourth player this century to reach base safely at least 266 times in his rookie season, joining Judge (286 in 2017), Ichiro Suzuki (280 in 2001) and Albert Pujols (272 in 2001). All three won Rookie of the Year honors in their respective leagues. Judge and Pujols won unanimously. Ichiro pulled off the MVP/Rookie of the Year double play.
More than the raw numbers, however, McGonigle was a grinder, a tough at-bat on a consistent basis, a surprising baserunner who led the Tigers in steals and a stingy defender who never took a play for granted. Thrust into an everyday role at shortstop by injuries, he led all AL players in plate appearances and started 155 games, yet pushed through the rookie wall. -- Jason Beck
Parker Messick, LHP, Guardians
With respect to Tolle’s strong season, this may be a debate between Messick and McGonigle, and a fascinating one between a player who took the mound once every five days and an everyday position player.
Messick made 32 starts, tossed 186 1/3 innings (seventh in MLB) and recorded a 2.56 ERA (sixth among qualified starters). He logged 193 strikeouts and a 6.3 WAR (per Baseball Reference), which ranked second among AL rookies behind McGonigle (7.1). For comparison, Tolle had a 2.9 bWAR over 26 starts.
Messick was both one of the game’s best rookies in 2026 and one of its top starters; he’s also an AL Cy Young Award finalist. But what he did carried great weight in the history books, too.
Among rookie pitchers in Cleveland franchise history, only Vean Gregg (9.1 in 1911) had a higher bWAR than Messick, and only Herb Score had more strikeouts (245 in 1955). Messick also became the fourth rookie starter in MLB history (minimum 150 innings pitched) to record a 2.60 ERA or below and a 9.0-plus K/9 rate, following Dwight Gooden (1984), Hideo Nomo (‘95) and José Fernández (2013).
Manager Stephen Vogt noted that even on the Spring Training backfields, Messick operated as if he was pitching in the AL Championship Series. That demeanor came to define his 2026 campaign, as the lefty routinely gave Cleveland a chance to win through a competitiveness beyond his years.
It could net him some hardware soon enough. -- Tim Stebbins
Payton Tolle, LHP, Red Sox
It's hard to believe that Tolle was a late cut for the Red Sox in Spring Training. By the end of the season, he was the team’s co-ace along with Sonny Gray while Garrett Crochet missed five months with a left shoulder injury. Tolle brought dominance and joy to the Red Sox every time he pitched, and in the days in between.
Rushed to the Majors for a seven-appearance, three-start cameo when the Red Sox ran short on pitching late in 2025, Tolle took his game up several notches in ‘26. It started the night of April 23, when he was recalled for a start against the Yankees at Fenway. Over six innings, Tolle allowed three hits and one walk while punching out 11. He remained in the rotation for the rest of the season.
It has been a fast rise for Tolle, who was the 50th overall pick by the Red Sox out of TCU in the 2024 Draft. The key to his breakout rookie season was improved command of his secondary pitches. Without question, Tolle leads with his heat. But having other pitches to keep the opponent off-balance proved to be huge.
There is red all over Tolle’s Baseball Savant page. He was in the 95th percentile for xERA (2.70), 90th in xBA (.199), 96th in chase percentage (36.4), 86th in K percentage (28.4) and 98th in extension (7.4 feet). In his 26 starts, Tolle allowed two earned runs or less 17 times. -- Ian Browne
National League
Carson Benge, OF, Mets
In late September, Mets manager Andy Green called Benge’s Rookie of the Year campaign “well-rounded,” which is as apt a descriptor as any. Benge may not have approached the power production of Sal Stewart nor the eye-popping defensive numbers of JJ Wetherholt, but he did just about everything well on a baseball field -- power, speed, contact ability, glove and arm. Benge was a true five-tool player who grew stronger as the season wore on, resulting in a standout September that gave him a real shot at the Rookie of the Year Award.
The top tool for Benge is his arm, which allowed him to lead the NL with 10 outfield assists as a right fielder. But Benge excelled in other areas, too. If you throw out the first 30 games of his career, he finished with a .302/.366/.462 slash line, along with 20 doubles, 18 homers and 16 stolen bases in 126 games. Of the four Major Leaguers to bat higher than .302 over that same stretch, only Yordan Alvarez finished with more than 18 homers. And Alvarez is decidedly not a rookie.
To be fair, anyone backing Stewart or Wetherholt can cherry-pick statistics to aid their argument. The difference is that with Benge, there are no tradeoffs. Stewart offered elite power but pedestrian on-base skills and little of note defensively. Wetherholt was a defensive whiz but a roughly league-average hitter. Only Benge did it all, which is why he’s such a robust candidate for Rookie of the Year. -- Anthony DiComo
Sal Stewart, INF, Reds
After a one-month cameo in 2025, Stewart opened 2026 in the big leagues and his spot in manager Terry Francona's lineup -- fourth -- provided indication of how confident the Reds were in his abilities. The 22-year-old first baseman batted .263 with a .787 OPS, 32 home runs and 112 RBIs.
Stewart became the first Reds rookie -- and the 15th rookie overall -- to produce a 30-homer/100-RBI season. Each of the previous nine players that did it since the Rookie of the Year Award began (1947) won it. That list includes superstars Pete Alonso (2019), Aaron Judge (2017) and Albert Pujols (2001).
Also on the resume: Stewart led all NL rookies in homers, RBIs, extra-base hits (57) and total bases (285). His 164 hits -- the most by a Reds rookie since Pete Rose's 170 in 1963 -- were tied for second. He was also second in runs (87) and third in walks (63) and went to the All-Star Game.
While Great American Ball Park is viewed as one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the game, Stewart actually hit more homers on the road (17) than at home (15). He also showed an advanced hitters' approach the whole year, with a capability to work deep counts and hit to all fields.
Stewart's 2.0 fWAR trails the other two finalists -- part of that is a function of his playing mostly first base and not being as strong a defender. But besides manning first base, Stewart played third base, second base and designated hitter. He also played all 162 games, with 161 starts. -- Mark Sheldon
JJ Wetherholt, 2B, Cardinals
No NL rookie produced a higher fWAR than Wetherholt’s 4.6 thanks to his 17 home runs at the plate and elite defense at second base for the Cardinals.
Wetherholt’s glove was his calling card in 2026. His +25 outs above average, according to Statcast, were not only tops among MLB second basemen, but second only to MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 26 among all players, regardless of defensive position. The same goes for Wetherholt’s +23 fielding run value.
Offensively, Wetherholt ranked in the 75th percentile or better among qualified hitters in expected weighted on-base average (.347, 82nd percentile), hard-hit rate (44.9%, 76th), squared-up rate (30.1, 88th), chase rate (21.2%, 94th), whiff rate (20.2%, 75th) and strikeout rate (16.8%, 77th). He also posted an .801 OPS with runners in scoring position.
Despite slightly-above-average speed on the base paths, Wetherholt picked his spots well, stealing 14 bases in 15 attempts and producing a baserunning run value of +4, which ranked in the 91st percentile among qualified players.
Wetherholt’s combination of a patient eye at the plate, savvy baserunning and elite defense at the keystone position, as well as his ability to shoulder high expectations with aplomb for a team that needed his production in the lineup makes his NL Rookie of the Year case a compelling one. -- Manny Randhawa