5 key questions about Bellinger’s market

December 20th, 2023

Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers was supposed to unlock the market for , yet here we are more than a week later, and the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year remains on the open market.

Bellinger, considered by most to be the second-best position player in this year’s free-agent pool, has seen his market altered during the past few weeks based on other moves. But the 2019 NL MVP continues to draw interest around the league.

What can we expect in the coming days (weeks? months?) for Bellinger’s free agency? Let’s take a look, with five questions and answers:

As we stand here in the third week of December, what teams are still “in” on Bellinger?

It’s difficult to project the number of teams that are still in play for Bellinger, but the Blue Jays and Cubs appear to be the two favorites for his services.

The Cubs were the beneficiaries of Bellinger’s rebound season in 2023, and if Chicago watches him sign elsewhere, it will have to find a suitable replacement for his bat in the lineup. His defensive versatility is also a plus for the Cubs, who used him extensively at both first base and center field last season.

is expected to be a fixture in Chicago at some point in 2024, so Bellinger’s return would give the Cubs a chance to pace Crow-Armstrong’s development – and then shift Bellinger to first base once the prospect arrives to claim center field.

All of that said, the Blue Jays still feel like the favorites here. Toronto took a big swing on Ohtani, so we know the Jays have the money to sign Bellinger, who is believed to be seeking a deal well north of $200 million.

With Daulton Varsho in left field and George Springer in right, the Blue Jays could use Bellinger in center, while also playing him occasionally at first base in order to give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. some days at DH.

Two of Bellinger’s early suitors already have added outfielders, potentially taking themselves out of the running. The Yankees, who have added Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham via trades, are no longer in the mix for Bellinger. Yet the Giants, who signed Jung Hoo Lee, could still make a run at him. And speaking of San Francisco ...

What effect does the Giants signing Lee have on Bellinger’s market? It still seems like there is a fit there given the Giants’ need for high-end talent.

Even with Lee, Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto penciled in as their starting outfield, the Giants could still use Bellinger, who could rotate between first base and the outfield, allowing manager Bob Melvin to use multiple players in the DH spot.

But the Giants – who gave Lee $113 million – are in dire need of rotation help. With high-end starters such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still available in free agency, San Francisco might opt to use its financial wherewithal to pursue them before writing a big check to Bellinger.

In the past, agent Scott Boras has been known to advise his clients to hold out into Spring Training to try and find the best deal. Are we at the point where we think that might be a possibility for Bellinger?

No. Not yet, anyway. We’ve seen plenty of Boras’ high-profile clients wait until January, February or even later before signing free-agent deals, the most famous of which was Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason.

But when Boras gets the deal he’s looking for, he’s been more than willing to guide his clients toward a pre-holiday signing. Just one year after Harper’s free agency dragged into late February, Boras clients Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon signed on back-to-back-to-back days during December’s Winter Meetings, getting a total of $814 million between them.

Bellinger’s market has been slow, but then again, many other free agents have been in the same boat as the baseball world waited for Ohtani to sign and now waits for Yamamoto to do the same. Once Yamamoto decides where he wants to sign, the market for other high-profile free agents – led by Bellinger – should begin to pick up speed.

Of course, if Bellinger and Boras aren’t finding the type of deal they’re seeking, we could find ourselves answering more questions about his free agency a month from now – maybe even two months.

Bellinger’s ability to play center field is one of his best assets as a free agent, but does his experience at first base expand his market all?

Absolutely. One of the most desirable traits a player can have these days is versatility, and Bellinger certainly possesses that, with the ability to play first base and all three outfield positions.

His best position is center field, and while most of his suitors figure to play him there to maximize that defense, the fact that he can move around gives a manager flexibility. That’s extremely valuable. It’s unlikely that any team would view Bellinger purely as its first baseman, but when it comes to signing a player to a long-term deal, it’s always a comfort to know there will be options down the line.

If you had to guess, where will he eventually sign?

The Blue Jays feel like the team that’s most likely to give Bellinger what he wants. After missing out on Ohtani and watching the Yankees trade for Juan Soto, Toronto is still looking for an impact lefty bat to add to the lineup.

Bellinger is the best left-handed hitter remaining in free agency and probably the best overall position player still available, making him a good fit for the Blue Jays. The Cubs shouldn’t be counted out, but Chicago has had ample opportunity to re-sign Bellinger. The guess here is a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Blue Jays.