This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
CHICAGO -- Seiya Suzuki stepped to the plate on Tuesday night with the bases loaded and the Cubs trying to mount a rally against the Brewers. The right fielder made hard contact -- 108.6 mph off the bat, per Statcast -- and third baseman Luis Rengifo was unable to corral the sharply hit grounder.
Suzuki’s hit went in the book as a run-scoring infield single -- a positive sign for a batter searching for more success with runners in scoring position this season. But it was still a snapshot of the Cubs’ recent issues in such situations. Chicago needed more in its 5-2 loss, but the “big hit” breakthroughs have been elusive in recent weeks.
“It’s not going to be like that all year,” Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said. “The tide’s going to turn. We’re going to get a bunch of base hits with runners in scoring position. That’s coming.”
The traffic has certainly been coming steadily for the Cubs all season. In fact, heading into Wednesday’s action, the North Siders led the Major Leagues with 579 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. The next-closest team was the Pirates at 572, followed by the Nationals (556) and the rival Brewers (550).
In Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to the Brewers, Chicago ended the evening 0-for-1 with runners in scoring position, as lefty Kyle Harrison overpowered the lineup across his seven innings. It was one of the few nights this season where the Cubs struggled to apply pressure throughout a game.
The way Cubs manager Craig Counsell views things, the volume of baserunners advancing into scoring position is the more important point. In general, offense will ebb and flow throughout a 162-game season, and that is also true when the sample size is diminished to a specific scenario (such as RISP).
“It is an important stat, in terms of who wins or loses. I’m not denying that,” Counsell said. “Another way to not have to be the best at it, is to create a ton of those situations. So, it mitigates some of your, ‘We’re only dependent on this. We have to be the best in the league at hitting with runners in scoring position.’
“We just have to keep getting runners on base and we’re good enough and we have good enough hitters in our lineup. We will produce a lot of runs. And we have, frankly.”
The Cubs’ season to date can be sliced into three parts:
1) The first 14 games, through April 11: Chicago went 6-8 overall and posted a .242 average and a .666 OPS with a 91 weighted runs created plus with runners in scoring position.
2) The next 25 games (April 12-May 8): The Cubs had two 10-game winning streaks and went 21-4 overall, putting up a .258 average, a .773 OPS and 114 wRC+ with RISP.
3) The following 10 games (May 9-19): The North Siders lost eight of 10 and saw the production crater to a .146 average, a .498 OPS and 44 wRC+ with RISP.
“I think you just gave me a really small sample, truthfully,” Counsell said of that most-recent period. “We are going to have 10-game stretches where we don’t hit well with runners in scoring position. The ‘27 Yankees had 10-game stretches where they didn’t hit well with runners in scoring position.”
One thing to note is that the Cubs’ walk rate with RISP has remained relatively stable through each of those three segments (13.6%, followed by 12.1% and 12.5%). Chicago’s hard-hit rate has actually climbed in each time period: 29.3% to 31.7% to 35.6%. So, while the results have not been there consistently, the Cubs have maintained some of their baseline traits as a lineup.
That is often the nature of offense.
“I think there is a skill,” Happ said, “to being able to get the bat on the baseball and make things happen with runners in scoring position. There’s also -- just like hitting in general -- ups and downs of it through a season. Sometimes you feel like every time you’re in a position to be up with runners in scoring position, you get a pitch to hit and you handle it, and you move it forward and good things happen.
“There’s also times where you hit a bunch of balls hard with runners in scoring position or get pitched really, really well. That’s part of the season. That’s why you kind of wait until the end of the season to look back at that stuff.”