Breaking down tonight's DFS starting pitchers

May 11th, 2021

After a majority of teams had an off-day Monday, Tuesday's full schedule brings with it one of the most fascinating pitching slates of the young 2021 season.

John Means makes his first start since throwing his no-hitter. Walker Buehler looks to keep rolling against a struggling Seattle offense. Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound against the rival Astros. If that somehow wasn't enough, this is just a sampling of some of the other starting pitchers set to go on Tuesday: Freddy Peralta (the best strikeout-per-inning pitcher in the Majors), Lance McCullers Jr., Madison Bumgarner, Kenta Maeda and Pablo López.

You'll notice we haven't even mentioned Shane Bieber yet, but with Cleveland's first pitch set for 6:10 p.m. ET, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner unfortunately won't be an option on standard daily fantasy slates.

With that in mind, let's try to sort through the plethora of options for your pitching slots (tiers are based on highest-priced options):

TOP TIER

Walker Buehler, RHP (vs. Mariners)
The stat(s): 36.0 K% in last three starts

The matchup: After racking up just four strikeouts in each of his first three starts, Buehler seems to be back to his usual self, striking out 27 over 19 1/3 innings in his last three outings. He's gone at least six innings in all six starts this season -- and he's allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of those games. As for Tuesday night, it's hard to find a better matchup than this one. Buehler is facing a Mariners team that is hitting .210 (29th in MLB) with a .288 on-base percentage (.288). Toss in the fact that the game is at Dodger Stadium -- and thus, Seattle's already struggling offense will be without a DH -- and it's a prime spot for Buehler.

Lance McCullers Jr., RHP (vs. Angels)
The stat(s): .172 opponents' batting average

The matchup: McCullers has proven he simply isn't going to give up many hits. The Astros right-hander has allowed just 20 hits in 32 2/3 innings this season, holding opponents to a .172 batting average (fourth-best in the AL). The only problem for McCullers has been his command. He's issued 18 walks and hit four batters for a total of 22 free passes. Though he's had trouble with his command in the past, his 13.0% walk rate would be a career high (surpassing his 12.8% mark from 2016 that was the highest among all pitchers with at least 80 innings). The good news for McCullers is that no team walks less than the Angels. Their 6.8% walk rate is the lowest in the Majors, though their 21.9% strikeout rate is good for the fourth-lowest.

John Means, LHP (vs. Mets)
The stat(s): .187 opponents' OBP (second-best in MLB)

The matchup: Means finally caught everyone's attention his last time out, when he tossed a 12-strikeout no-hitter in which the only baserunner he allowed reached on a dropped third strike. But make no mistake, he's been dominant all season. The no-hitter lowered Means' opponents' batting average to .135 and his opponents' OBP to .187 -- second in MLB only to Jacob deGrom. Means has allowed one run or fewer in five of his seven starts, and no more than three in any one outing. As for this matchup, he's facing a Mets team that ranks 29th in the Majors in runs per game (3.4) and slugging percentage (.349), though they aren't the easiest team to strike out (22.4 K%, sixth-lowest in MLB).

Freddy Peralta, RHP vs. Cardinals
The stat(s): 14.9 K per nine innings (best in MLB)

The matchup: No pitcher strikes out more batters per inning than Peralta. Not deGrom, not Shane Bieber, not Tyler Glasnow -- nobody. The right-hander has 53 strikeouts in just 32 innings this season, and that comes after racking up 47 K's in only 29 1/3 frames in the abbreviated 2020 season. The concern with Peralta is that he's complated six innings in only two of his six starts. In fact, he's been just as likely to pitch four frames (twice) as he is to pitch six. Matchup-wise, the Cards rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories, though their 22.9% strikeout rate is the 10th-lowest in the big leagues.

BEST OF THE REST

Madison Bumgarner, LHP (vs. Marlins)
Bumgarner's first three starts this season couldn't have gone much worse. His last four couldn't have gone much better. The veteran southpaw has allowed no more than one run in each of his last four starts, including his seven-inning no-hitter on April 25. He has a 1.17 ERA with 25 strikeouts over 23 innings in that span, and he just held this same Marlins club to two hits over six frames on Thursday. Bumgarner certainly looks like a different pitcher than the one who had an 11.20 ERA through three starts, and it doesn't hurt that the Marlins rank 23rd in runs per game (4.0) and 26th in strikeout rate (26.6%).

Dylan Cease, RHP (vs. Twins)
Cease's control issues can lead to elevated pitch counts -- and thus, shorter outings -- but he could be an absolute steal if his command is on. The right-hander is one of the better bargains on the slate Tuesday night, and he's coming off back-to-back scoreless outings in which he's allowed only four hits and racked up 20 strikeouts over 13 innings. The concern, of course, is that he's walked exactly three hitters in five of his six outings, and he failed to complete five frames in each of his first four starts this year. The Twins rank near the middle of the back in terms of both walk rate and strikeout rate, but they do have the third-best slugging percentage in the Majors.

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP (vs. Athletics)
This would be an ultimate roll-of-the-dice move, given Eovaldi's performance of late. The right-hander has a 6.65 ERA over his last four starts, a stretch that has included rocky outings against two of the league's least productive offenses. He allowed five runs in five innings vs. the Mariners on April 24, and more recently, he was tagged for six runs in just 4 1/3 frames on Thursday vs. Detroit. Until he rediscovers his early-season form (2.08 ERA through three starts), it'll be hard to trust Eovaldi in your lineups.

Pablo López, RHP (vs. D-backs)
Miami's 25-year-old righty will be squaring off with Bumgarner for the second straight start -- and he more than held his own on Thursday. López has allowed just one earned run over 24 innings in his last four starts. He's pitched to a 2.04 ERA in seven starts overall, despite the fact that he allowed six runs in just four innings in a disastrous April 13 outing vs. Atlanta. Outside of that performance, he has a remarkable 0.76 ERA in his other six starts.

Kenta Maeda, RHP (vs. White Sox)
Maeda has struggled in 2021 after leading the Majors with a 0.75 WHIP last season -- but he showed glimpses of that 2020 version in his last outing. Maeda struck out a season-high eight batters while allowing only two hits over 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. the Rangers in his last start. If you believe that's a sign of things to come, this could be one of your last chances to roll with Maeda at a lower cost -- and before everyone else jumps back in. Of course, it's hard to blame you if you want to see him do it once more before taking the plunge.

Shoehi Ohtani, RHP (vs. Astros)
Ohtani is must-watch TV, especially when he's on the mound, but he's not the easiest pitcher to roll with in fantasy. His splitter is one of the nastiest pitches in baseball -- opponents are 0-for-27 against it, with 22 strikeouts -- and hitters are batting just .113 against Ohtani overall, but walks continue to be an issue. Though he's struck out 30 and allowed only seven hits over 18 2/3 innings, Ohtani has also handed out 19 free passes. That's led to him being unable to pitch beyond five innings in any of his four starts to this point.

Marcus Stroman, RHP (vs. Orioles)
The attention will understandbly be on the opposing starter in this one, with Means coming off his no-hitter -- but don't sleep on Stroman. The Mets right-hander hs allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts this season, and no more than one earned run in four of those games. He's also facing an Orioles team that averages just 3.9 runs per game (25th in MLB)