Daily picks, predictions, odds for Sept. 15

September 15th, 2021

A version of this article originally appeared on DraftKings. For more betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

We crushed it with our plays in this article last night, writing up Nathan Eovaldi (23.65 DKFP), Aaron Judge (18 DKFP) and Ryan Zimmerman (14 DKFP). Let’s see if we can make it two days in a row.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Julio Urías, $10,500, Los Angeles Dodgers (-350) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+270) --Not only is Urías the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, he’s also the most expensive pitcher on the DFS slate. It’s completely justified with the way he’s been pitching, especially in two prior starts against this Diamondbacks team. Through 11 2⁄3 innings, Urías has allowed just one run on seven hits with 15 strikeouts. Those numbers give him a very appealing 0.85 FIP, an 11.6 K/9 and a .168 wOBA. Urías hasn’t allowed more than two runs in nine of his last 10 starts and has gone at least five innings in all of them. While he doesn’t go very deep into games, he’s still posting some solid fantasy points, going over 20 DKFP in four-straight starts.

The Diamondbacks continue to just, ya know, tread water. Oddly enough, this offense actually posts some solid numbers against lefties. A .336 wOBA, a .178 ISO and a 108 wRC+ as a team is nothing to brush off. That said, they simply cannot figure out Urías. Even when they’re making contact, it hasn’t been hard contact, as he’s allowed just a 29% hard-hit rate. Urías should once again dominate this team, making him one of the most sought-after players in DFS and betting wise tonight.

Highest Projected Total

Cleveland Indians (-110; 4.5 runs) at Minnesota Twins (-110; 4.5 runs) 9 runs -- The Indians and Twins game had the highest line on the over of nine runs, getting -120 as of this morning. Both teams have a projected run total of 4.5 runs but it’s the Indians getting -120 on the over while the Twins are at +100. The Twins remain the best team in the league at hitting the over on the game total, doing it 58.3% of the time. The Indians have also been a strong team at doing so at 53.6% of the time.

I side with the Indians hitting the over on their team total going up against Griffin Jax ($5,700), who despite his poor pitching performances, still has the best name in baseball. Jax has seen the Indians twice already and has now found much success, allowing seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits through just 10 1⁄3 innings. Statistically, Jax has some of the worst numbers amongst the starters on this slate with an overall 6.43 FIP (yikes) a 2.52 HR/9 and a 40% hard-hit rate allowed. Even with the Indians offense scuffling as of late, it’s hard to not like them going over the 4.5 total against Jax. In fact, in his last five starts, Jax has allowed at least four runs in four of them, including nine against the Red Sox. This game very well could hit the over of nine runs but at the very least, I’ll be very interested in taking over 4.5 runs for the Indians.

Weather Notes

A number of games have a slight chance of rain but nothing overly significant. It’s worth checking on these closer to first pitch.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffin Jax, .359, 6.46
Tylor Megill, .408, 6.31
Alec Mills, .381, 5.24

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ranger Suárez, .154, 1.97
Huascar Ynoa, .224, 2.37

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP

Griffin Jax, .359, 6.40
Jon Lester, .376, 5.86
Dallas Keuchel, .345, 5.50

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tylor Megill, .225, 2.60
Joe Musgrove, .228, 2.89
Julio Urías, .269, 3.10

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Julio Urías, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $10,500 -- Hate to beat a dead horse here but yeah, it’s Urías tonight and I don’t think it’s very close. I do think if you wanted to consider someone else, Sean Manaea ($9,800) would be the next name on my list but I’m making a point to go out of my way to use Urías.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, $5,000 -- Alvarez has been blasting the ball lately and has a great matchup on tap against Kohei Arihara ($5,500). Against lefties, Arihara has a 4.95 FIP and just a 4.1 K/9. As for Alvarez, he posts big power numbers against anyone but particularly has a .365 wOBA, a .246 ISO and a 137 wRC+ against righties. Alvarez has collected a .263 ISO in the month of September with six extra base hits. The Astros lineup should be able to do some damage against Arihara and with Alvarez batting in the heart of the lineup, should be in a great position to knock some runs in.

Save Big by Drafting

Brad Miller, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs, $3,400 --Miller has been hitting high in the Phillies lineup, batting either cleanup or fifth most recently. If he’s in one of those spots again, he’ll have a great matchup against Alec Mills ($6,300). Against lefties, Mills has some really poor numbers, which include a .381 wOBA, a 5.24 FIP and a 1.4 HR/9. For this cheap price tag, he’s a great source of power against righties with his .255 ISO and a 129 wRC+.

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