Can Peterson pitch his way into 2024 rotation?

August 22nd, 2023

ATLANTA -- Earlier this month on an SNY appearance, Mets legend David Wright was asked how he would view the remainder of this season if he were one of several young players on the roster.

Wright’s answer: Don’t be a “question mark.” Enter the offseason with such a flourish that the team won’t need to insure against you this winter.

For infielders and , that can’t happen quite yet; the former is in the Minors, while the latter is on the injured list. But for pitchers and , it can.

Heading into Spring Training as the Mets’ clear No. 6 starter, Peterson scuffled to such an extent that he spent large swaths of this season at Triple-A Syracuse and in the Major League bullpen. But with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander gone elsewhere, the left-hander is back to starting every fifth game with a chance to restore his reputation.

So far, the results have been mixed, with reason to believe they can soon improve. Peterson allowed four runs over 4 2/3 innings on Monday night to take a no-decision despite a rare Mets offensive outburst in a 10-4 win over the Braves -- New York’s first win at Truist Park in more than a year.

Still, it was Peterson’s deepest outing since returning to the rotation, and it came against an historically good offense at a hitter-friendly ballpark. From this one, Peterson drew mostly positives.

“Tonight kind of felt like the first night that I was really back to starting -- no pitch count, no limits, nothing like that,” Peterson said. “Going in with a mindset of going as far as I can. … I think that’s kind of the goal. Continue to build off the things I’m doing well.”

Half the damage against Peterson came on a pair of solo homers from Marcell Ozuna, including one on a slider outside the strike zone. Michael Harris II also tagged Peterson for a two-run double in the third inning, and the left-hander issued a two-out walk to Matt Olson in the fifth to ensure he wouldn’t last deep enough to qualify for the win.

Even so, manager Buck Showalter lauded Peterson’s ability to “compete,” specifically referencing his strikeout of Ronald Acuña Jr. with two runners on base and two outs in the fourth.

“That gave us a chance,” Showalter said. “The game doesn’t always follow a script, and things don’t always work out. He gave up two infield hits that really made his outing look a lot more challenging than it was.”

Much of the rest of what the Mets accomplished in the opener of a three-game set against their rivals mattered little when viewed through the lens of 2024.

Francisco Lindor, who hit a three-run homer, will be the starting shortstop no matter what happens in September. Rafael Ortega and DJ Stewart, who hit two-run and solo shots, respectively, probably won’t play major roles on the 2024 team.

Peterson could. Among current rotation members, only Kodai Senga and José Quintana are guaranteed spots in next season’s starting five. While it’s true that the Mets will sign multiple free agents to fill out their rotation, they won’t spend as wildly as they did the past two offseasons.

As such, even if Peterson enters next season back in a depth role, he’s still likely to be a significant piece -- provided he shows the Mets enough down the stretch.

Wright knows a thing or two about that. In 2004, he debuted in late July for a New York team not quite ready to compete for playoff position. The Mets didn’t have to commit to a 21-year-old prospect at that point, and they certainly didn’t need to name him their Opening Day third baseman in 2005.

But Wright hit so well -- an .857 OPS in 69 games -- that he made the question moot. Third base would belong to him for the next decade-plus.

Peterson’s accomplishments have been subtler, but he has still pitched to a 3.05 ERA over his past 13 games (including seven starts). Now that he’s fully stretched out once again, he has a six-week runway to show the Mets what he can do.

“If I’m one of those guys, I am doing everything in my power to show the front office and ownership that you can count on me for next year,” was how Wright put it. “‘You can pencil me into this rotation because I am reliable, and I’m going to get the job done.’”