Inbox: Digging into the new prospect rankings

August 18th, 2022

Nothing generates more questions, and gets people more fired up, than a new set of prospect rankings. Asking for MLB Pipeline Inbox questions right after a full re-rank is definitely going after fish in a barrel.

Not surprisingly, people have had plenty to say about our new Top 100, team Top 30 lists and Top 10 by position rankings. We did some serious breakdown work on this week’s Pipeline Podcast (including answering a question about a player who didn’t make the Top 100, but was asked about quite a bit, Angels catcher Edgar Quero), so be sure to check that out. Here are some other queries about the rankings that have come across the ol’ virtual desk.

Where is Oscar Colas? Was he close to being on the Top 100? – A whole lot of people

Colas may have been the prospect asked about the most since we launched our new lists. He’s currently No. 2 on the White Sox list, behind their lone Top 100 representative, Colson Montgomery and the Cuban outfielder certainly has performed well enough to warrant consideration.

The 2022 Futures Gamer carried a .321/.386/.538 line into Wednesday’s games and he’s hit even better (.348/.431/.708 in 23 games) since he got bumped up to Double-A. The fact it’s just 23 games is part of the reason why he didn’t make the list. When we started our process in lining up the new Top 100, Colas had spent very little time in Double-A, and even the games he has now under his belt are a little bit of a small sample size. A 23-year old with his level of international experience hitting well in High-A is worth noting, but not something that automatically rings the Top 100 bell.

Colas is all about the bat -- he’s not super-athletic or speedy -- and he’s definitely on the radar for eventual inclusion given how good that bat has been. Assuming he keeps raking with Birmingham, I think he’ll definitely be in the conversation if and when we need replacements down the stretch of the season.

Why the drop in the Top 100 rankings for Cade Cavalli? His performance the past few months has really demonstrated improved control and use of the changeup. -- @PJLeesburg

Cavalli, the Nationals’ No. 4 prospect, did indeed move from No. 39 on the preseason Top 100 to his current spot at No. 58. And it’s true he’s been very good of late, with a 2.08 ERA and .194 batting average against in his last seven starts. But that’s really only looking at part of the story for the right-hander.

In general, we try not to veer too wildly in one direction or another over such a small sample, good or bad. Had Cavalli been as good as we thought he’d be entering the year, he’d have graduated to the big league rotation long ago. But April and May were really rough (5.58 ERA, 4.0 BB/9) and he moved down a little bit when we did our in-season “market corrections.” He was at No. 43 right before our re-rank, so it’s not as big of a drop as it seems compared to the preseason rank. His inconsistency is definitely part of the story.

Additionally, he got nudged down because of the addition of 2022 draftees and other players outperforming him all year. There are seven members of the most recent Draft class who we slotted in ahead of Cavalli alone, accounting for a good chunk of that drop. If Cavalli finishes out like he has pitched of late, he’ll get his chance in Washington soon enough, which is the whole point, after all.

Which prospects were the hardest to rank on the Top 100 Prospects List? -- @StevieDAles97

Feels right to close with a question from Stevie D. I think I can answer this best by putting the “tough to rank” into three categories: Out of nowhere/fast risers, Strugglers and Injured.

The first one is obviously the most positive one as it pertains to guys who got really good, really fast. The poster guy for this group in this re-rank is obviously Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, who is now our No. 11 overall prospect. Not only was he not in the Top 100 at the start of the season, he was the Brewers’ No. 10 prospect. That’s not completely “out of nowhere,” but let’s just say he was not on a Top 100 radar at all. He didn’t play in the United States until this year and he’s only 18, so we knew he had exciting tools, but hadn’t really seen him in action yet (He was good, but not earth-shattering, in the Dominican Summer League in 2021). But not only did he put up monster numbers in Single-A and earn a promotion up a level, not only did he go to the Futures Game, but we started hearing from scouts of other teams that we needed to rank this guy. Figuring out where was tough since we had some scouts who said things like, “You can go as high as you want to with this guy.” There’s a TON of excitement about him, but we’re mindful of how young he is and his limited track record.

Plenty of guys on the Top 100 (and now, off of it) have struggled this year. The one who comes to mind for me is Pirates infielder Nick Gonzales. He got hurt in 2021 and had a terrible first half, then might have been one of the best hitters in the Minors in the second half before looking like the advanced college hitter who was taken No. 7 overall in the 2020 Draft in the first place. We expected him to keep on raking with the move to Double-A this year, but he just hasn’t hit consistently (.742 OPS), with a strikeout rate higher than we expected to see and injuries have once again hurt his development (just 49 games as of Wednesday). We didn’t want to quite give up on the bat on the Top 100 just yet, though we came close, deciding in the end to put him at No. 99. I, for one, wouldn’t mind seeing him in the AFL again this fall.

Finally, there are the injured guys. Right or wrong, we’ve tended not to ding pitchers too much if they have Tommy John, though that’s always up for debate. But for me, the toughest one was a hitter, Royce Lewis. The former No. 1 pick in the Draft is one of our favorites, an easy guy to root for, and we were all very encouraged with how good he looked upon his return in 2022 from after coming back from a torn ACL suffered during Spring Training in 2021. He hadn’t played in two years because of the injury and the pandemic, but he hit well in Triple-A and he was on the cusp of really establishing himself in the big leagues. But then he tore the same ACL crashing into the center field wall, ending another season. Two major knee surgeries, for a guy whose speed is one of his best tools, is concerning. Lewis came back from the first injury stronger and, by some reports, faster than he was. Can he do that again? We’re banking on his makeup here, and perhaps bumping him down only to No. 61 is giving him the benefit of the doubt.