TORONTO -- When the Blue Jays run into a pitcher as hot as Ranger Suarez was Monday night, every sentence tends to end in a “but”.
The lineup didn’t do much at all… but Suarez was nearly unhittable. Dylan Cease couldn’t carry his dominant early innings deep enough into his start… but it didn’t matter who was on the mound for the Blue Jays in between Suarez’s innings.
This is what matters from the 5-0 loss, in which Suarez threw eight shutout innings and allowed just one hit.
1. To credit Suarez or blame the Blue Jays?
This is baseball’s “chicken or the egg?” conundrum whenever a lineup is completely shut down. The boring answer is that it lies somewhere in the middle -- an excellent pitching performance that wasn’t adjusted to in time -- but this is one that the Blue Jays would rather forget.
Their first hit didn’t come until the bottom of the sixth, when Jesús Sánchez slapped a double just past third base and into the left-field corner, allowing everyone to exhale a bit.
Of the 17 balls hit 95 mph or harder Monday night, 14 belonged to the Red Sox. Only Kazuma Okamoto (twice) and Daulton Varsho countered for the Blue Jays.
2. THE GOOD: Early Cease
Let’s split Dylan Cease’s start in half, because Monday night perfectly captures his greatness and the challenge that comes along with it.
Cease needed just 35 pitches to breeze through the first three innings, striking out five batters. He was in complete control, as efficient as he was dominant. This is the version of Cease we’ve seen for the majority of 2026, and if that version of him sticks around, he clearly has the talent to land back in the Cy Young conversation. Anyone whose ERA starts with a “2” over a full season of healthy starts with a strikeout rate like Cease’s -- now 49 over 31 1/3 innings -- automatically lands on ballots.
Can Cease find the comfortable middle ground, though, or is this just the Cease experience, flashes of brilliance balanced by what we saw in his later innings?
3. THE BAD: Late Cease
Three innings on 35 pitches? Fantastic. The next 2 2/3 innings on 72 pitches? Not so much.
This is where the Red Sox did all of their damage against Cease. It’s also where all three of his walks came, and in these innings, we saw some very clear examples of why it’s so important for Cease to be working ahead in counts. That applies to every pitcher in the sport, but especially Cease.
Since Cease’s stuff is so good when he’s on, he’s able to force ugly swings on pitches outside of the zone as well as nearly any pitcher in baseball. We measure this with “Out of Zone Swing and Miss” percentage, and in 2025, Cease ranked second in Major League Baseball (54.7%) behind only Sonny Gray.
In fact, in each of the last five seasons, Cease has ranked in the top-10 among qualified pitchers when it came to swing-and-miss rates on pitches outside of the zone. Cease gets these swings when hitters are up against the wall -- something like a 1-2 count -- and bit early on his devastating slider. When hitters are in advantageous counts, though, like a 3-1 count, they don’t need to bite as early, which limits Cease’s superpower.
Talent isn’t the issue here, and with Cease, it never will be. Every pitcher in baseball is better when they’re ahead in the count, but when Cease is ahead in counts, he’s one of the best pitchers on the planet.