DUNEDIN, Fla. -- Somewhere in that right arm of Dylan Cease, there’s a Cy Young Award.
We know this already because we’ve seen it already. In 2022, only Justin Verlander’s remarkable season kept Cease from the American League Cy Young. If someone makes 32 starts in a season with one of the highest strikeout rates among starters, he’ll always have a shot.
Cease’s Spring Training debut on Saturday at TD Ballpark was the appetizer. He was overwhelming hitters already, blowing 98 mph past Phillies hitters while the calendar still reads February.
“You always want to make a good, strong first impression,” said Cease, who allowed one run, one hit and one walk and notched three strikeouts over 1 2/3 innings in Toronto's 7-5 win. “This isn’t as important as a regular-season game, but I definitely wanted to make a good impression.”
His finest pitch of the afternoon was a 97.5 mph heater to get Bryce Harper swinging. And while this is still 1 million miles from the regular season, it’s a glimpse of why the Blue Jays handed Cease their largest free-agent contract at seven years and $210 million.
Over seven big league seasons, Cease has worked through ups and downs. Granted, his ups are truly elite seasons and his downs are still solid. The Blue Jays are chasing that true top-end potential, though, which is exactly why Cease signed in Toronto. He’s good enough already and everyone knows it, but Cease craves consistency, and he wants elite seasons every time.
It’s a fine line for a pitcher this talented, but Cease can get there.
What Cease really cares about
Like any veteran, Cease just wants to ramp up and be ready for the games that matter, but this is where the groundwork is laid for another run at those elite seasons. He and his manager agree on the big ticket item here.
“Delivery is a big thing for him,” John Schneider said. “Staying in his delivery is a big thing. The really good outings and seasons you’ve seen from him, that has been on point very consistently.”
Cease says his delivery feels 80% of the way there, and he called himself “really optimistic.”
“This is about fine-tuning and finding the feel in high intensity. For instance, maybe you bounce a couple breaking pitches and go, ‘OK, I need to aim that higher,’ and you take a mental note of that,” Cease said. “You just figure out what creates the best shapes and the best command.”
Cease’s velocity is already the best on the staff, but his slider gives hitters fits. That has the potential to be one of the best pitches in the sport, and he has also been toying with a changeup, which we could see later this spring.
One big upgrade: Team defense
Cease won’t lean on his defense as much as Chris Bassitt did in his time with the Blue Jays, but this still matters. The simple version is that Cease is going from a career of pitching in front of below-average defenses to pitching in front of an elite one.
“I think it will only help him,” Schneider said. “There are a lot of other things that will help him, too, in terms of his sessions with [the pitching coaches] and pitch shape. I think he’s a guy who is a little bit of an outlier, where you already have elite swing-and-miss stuff. How can we capitalize and make that better? If we happen to make some good plays behind him, that’s an added bonus.”
Let’s frame this broadly first. Using fielding run value, the Blue Jays have been the best defensive team in baseball for each of the past two seasons. Here’s a comparison for how the Blue Jays’ defense has compared to Cease’s teams (Padres, White Sox), going back to that great 2022 season:
Blue Jays: 1st, 1st, 7th, 6th
Cease’s teams: 18th, 20th, 23rd, 21st
Cease is more of a fly-ball pitcher, so outfield defense is particularly important. In 2022, the White Sox ranked 28th among 30 MLB teams in outfield fielding run value, so he wasn’t getting much help. Ground balls will be swallowed up by Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement, too, each of whom carries legitimate Gold Glove Award potential into ‘26. No matter which angle you look at this from, the Blue Jays offer Cease a significant defensive upgrade.
This won’t be noticeable in all 32 of Cease’s starts, especially given how many bats he misses, but it will add up over the course of a season. This is how 180 innings becomes 187 innings and how a 3.04 ERA becomes a 2.97 ERA, one play at a time.