How E-Rod's opt-out complicates Deadline scenarios

July 19th, 2023

When takes the mound for the Tigers on Wednesday, talent evaluators throughout the sport will watch closely.

Rodriguez is making his third MLB start since missing more than a month due to a pulley rupture in his left index finger. The 30-year-old left-hander is one of the top starting pitcher trade candidates, thanks to a 2.70 ERA that ranks fourth in the Majors among those who have thrown at least 70 innings.

But Rodriguez’s trade value remains difficult to assess, due to an opt-out clause he can activate following the 2023 World Series.

Rodriguez is in the second season of a five-year, $77 million contract. At the end of this season, three years and $49 million will remain. If Rodriguez pitches as well in the second half as he did in the first, he’ll likely exercise the opt-out and sign a larger contract on the open market.

That’s a potential complication for teams interested in Rodriguez ahead of the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline.

As one executive observed this week, there’s downside risk in trading for Rodriguez: If he pitches well, you’ll probably lose him; if he struggles or returns to the IL, the acquiring team may have added $49 million in future payroll.

To navigate the uncertainty, MLB’s collective bargaining agreement provides teams with a limited amount of flexibility.

Teams are permitted to include contingent cash considerations in a trade, dependent on if the opt-out is exercised. In other words, the Tigers could say to an acquiring team, “If E-Rod stays with you beyond this season, we will pay a specific dollar amount of the $49 million.”

That strategy would help Detroit obtain a higher quality package of prospects in return.

However, teams cannot make players to be named later contingent on whether a player opts out.

Thus, no matter what, Rodriguez will be a more nuanced Deadline case than starting pitchers on straightforward, expiring contracts like his Tigers teammate Michael Lorenzen or White Sox right-handers Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn.