PHILADELPHIA -- The Phillies' roster figures to look a bit different next season.
It's unclear who will be the club's starting third baseman. There will almost certainly be a shakeup of some sort in the outfield. There will likely be a couple of new arms in the bullpen. Trea Turner is the shortstop ... for now.
But one area the Phillies don't have to worry about is the starting rotation. (Well, outside of adding some organizational depth pieces.)
The Phillies are in the enviable position returning all five big league starters to a rotation that has the potential to stack up among the best in baseball next season.
While we wait for the rest of the roster to start taking shape this offseason, let's take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for each starting pitcher:
If it all goes right ...
Sánchez wins his first National League Cy Young Award. The Phillies' co-ace finished as the NL Cy Young runner-up behind Paul Skenes in 2025, and he is once again a finalist this season -- though Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski is expected to win the award, which will be announced on Wednesday. There was a stretch this season in which Sánchez and Misiorowski appeared primed to give us one of the best Cy Young races in recent memory.
Sánchez went the entire month of May without allowing a run in one of the most dominant stretches of starting pitching ever, though he ultimately came back down to earth over the next few months. He has unquestionably established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons, going 31-12 with a 2.71 ERA and 443 strikeouts.
What could go wrong?
No pitcher has thrown more innings (409) over the past two seasons than Sánchez. He's turned into one of the more dependable starters in MLB, making 31 starts in 2024, 32 in '25 and 33 in '26. He hasn't landed on the IL since starting the 2023 season on the shelf with a strained left triceps -- but that's his lone IL stint over his six-year career.
There's nothing to suggest his recent workload will have a negative impact on Sánchez -- and he clearly had no trouble overcoming this same concern heading into last season. Still, it'll be something to monitor with the hard-throwing lefty who turns 30 in December.
If it all goes right ...
Wheeler finally wins his first NL Cy Young Award. The veteran righty exceeded even the loftiest of expectations this season in his return from thoracic outlet decompression surgery. With many unsure what to expect from Wheeler following his scary medical issues the season prior, the 36-year-old co-ace went 14-5 with a 3.00 ERA and 193 strikeouts, all while making 28 starts.
Now another year removed from surgery, Wheeler -- who is entering the final year of his contract -- will have his sights set on two big firsts for 2027: winning a Cy Young Award and a World Series title.
What could go wrong?
While Wheeler gave the Phillies everything they could have asked for in 2026, there's no question that he had some stumbles as the season went on. After going 10-1 with a 2.13 ERA over 15 first-half starts, Wheeler went just 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA over 13 starts following the All-Star break.
Wheeler had a six-start stretch beginning in late July that knocked his season off track before he seemed to settle back in for the stretch run. It'll be interesting to see if a fully healthy Wheeler can maintain his dominant form for the entire 2027 campaign.
If it all goes right ...
Luzardo wins his first NL Cy Young Award. Noticing a trend yet? Yes, the Phillies will enter next season with three legitimate Cy Young contenders in Sánchez, Wheeler and Luzardo.
While Sánchez had his historic scoreless streak and Wheeler put together a remarkable comeback season, it was Luzardo who was not only the Phillies' best starter but the best starter in Major League Baseball for a good chunk of the season. Luzardo had a ridiculous 1.70 ERA and 141 strikeouts over a 16-start stretch spanning nearly half the season from June 10 until Sept. 7. The 1.70 ERA and 141 strikeouts were both the best by any pitcher during that span.
What could go wrong?
Well, there was already a glimpse of this in September. The only thing that slowed down Luzardo last season was left shoulder inflammation that landed him on the IL on Sept. 15. Though he returned to pitch one inning on the final day of the regular season before turning in a solid start in the NLDS, it wasn't the way Luzardo wanted to end his breakout campaign.
While that was Luzardo's first IL stint in his two seasons with the Phillies, he did miss substantial time with forearm, elbow and back injuries during his time with the Marlins from 2022-24.
If it all goes right ...
Nola returns to being one of the more durable veteran arms in the big leagues. For nearly a decade, Nola was one of the most consistent, reliable starters in the Majors before a disastrous 2025 season. He then stumbled out of the gate in '26 by posting a 6.04 ERA in 17 starts through the end of June, leaving some to question his status in the Phillies' rotation.
But over the next three months, Nola put up a 3.39 ERA in his final 16 starts of the season. That 3.39 ERA from July onwards was better than both Wheeler (3.84) and Sánchez (4.10). If the Phillies can get anything close to that version of Nola for a full season, it would be a significant boost to what is already one of the best rotations in baseball.
What could go wrong?
No pitcher has thrown more innings over the past decade than Nola. In fact, nobody else is even close to the 1,702 1/3 innings Nola has pitched dating back to his first full season in 2017. The only other pitchers within even 100 innings of Nola during that span are Kevin Gausman (1,635 2/3 innings) and Wheeler (1,605).
Given Nola's struggles in 2025 and the first half of '26, there will be lingering questions until he proves he can consistently be himself again for a full season.
If it all goes right ...
Painter establishes himself as a bona fide big league starter. After years of anticipation, Painter's long-awaited MLB debut could not have gotten off to a much worse start. The 23-year-old rookie was demoted to Triple-A on June 17 after struggling to a 7.06 ERA through the first 14 outings of his big league career.
But with the Phillies unable to acquire a starter at the Trade Deadline, Painter got another opportunity down the stretch -- and he made the most of it. He posted a 3.65 ERA over 11 starts after returning to the big leagues, but his biggest contribution came in the postseason. Painter tossed three scoreless innings of relief to secure the victory in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Braves.
"That's a career-altering performance, in my opinion," catcher J.T. Realmuto said after that outing. "I'm excited to continue working with him. He's gonna be a stud."
What could go wrong?
Painter certainly showed flashes of his ace-caliber potential at times in 2026, but there is still plenty of room for growth. The Phillies will want to see fewer walks and fewer homers next season. That, in turn, would also help him pitch deeper into games.
The Phillies believe the sky is the limit for Painter, who turns just 24 years old next April.