Digging into standings in early May can often be a fool’s exercise. With more than three-quarters of the season remaining, even struggling teams are one winning streak away from catapulting themselves over .500, erasing the sting of their early adversity.
But the standings page – one column, in particular – can teach us a thing or two about what to expect over the rest of the season.
The formula is simple. Has a team scored more runs than it has allowed? A positive run differential is good. A negative one? Not so much.
But does run differential always equate to wins and losses? One would think so, but if there’s anything to be gleaned from the first 35 or so games of the 2026 season, that isn’t necessarily the case.
“You can see where teams are trending and where they are,” one National League executive said. “That said, there are some things that are tougher to explain.”
One or two lopsided losses early in a season can skew a team’s run differential quite a bit, which is why many front-office types don’t read much into the statistic until Memorial Day, when approximately one-third of the season is already in the rearview mirror.
With the help of standout researcher Thomas Harrigan, we dove into some of the oddities the first part of 2026 has brought us and tried to make sense of them.
The American League hasn’t been very good
Only five of the AL’s 15 teams currently hold a positive run differential, and four of those were barely on that side of the ledger.
The Yankees have clearly been the best team in the AL, evidenced by their 25-12 record and +74 run differential. The Rays (24-12) are the only other AL team with at least 20 victories this season despite a +15 run differential.
The other three teams in the positive? The Tigers (18-20, +6), Mariners (18-20, +4) and Rangers (17-19, +1).
Detroit is one game behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Neither team is above .500, and the Guardians have a -7 run differential. The AL’s other first-place team – the Athletics – is also at .500 at 18-18, though their -21 run differential is the fourth-lowest in the league.
Only four AL teams had a positive run differential through their first 35 team games this season. That’s the fewest teams in one league with a positive run differential through 35 team games in the Divisional Era (since 1969).
“I think [run differential] can be more predictive of how a team ends up,” an AL executive said.
As of Wednesday night, every team in the AL has played 36 games, with every AL team other than the Yankees and Rays at .500 or worse. In the Divisional Era, there have only been two seasons in which one league has had fewer than four teams above .500 through 36 games: the 1990 NL (only the Reds, Pirates and Phillies had winning records) and the 1974 AL (White Sox, Brewers and Athletics). Until this season, neither league had only two teams above .500 through 36 games in the Divisional Era.
Unsurprisingly, those two teams have the best run differential in the AL, even if the Rays are barely in the positive.
National League nonsense
Although the NL isn’t quite as bad as the AL in terms of run differential, fewer teams (six) had positive marks than negatives (nine) as of Wednesday.
The Braves lead the Majors at +79, barely edging the Yankees in both run differential and record (26-12). Their 8 1/2-game lead in the NL East isn’t all that surprising given the performance of the other four teams: the Nationals (17-20, -12), Phillies (17-20, -31) and Mets (14-22, -24) are among the bottom five in the NL in run differential.
The NL Central, on the other hand, is a marvel.
Four of the five teams had positive run differentials entering play on Wednesday, but the Cardinals' 6-2 loss to the Brewers dropped St. Louis to -1. The first-place Cubs (25-12, +45) lead the way after their third straight walk-off win. The other team in the red, ironically, is the Reds, who are at -25 through 37 games – yet are 20-17.
“It’s a little baffling,” an NL executive said.
Cincinnati’s negative number is easier to understand than most. Just in the past week, the Reds have losses of 13-2, 9-1 and 17-7, accounting for a -29. Had those all been one-run losses – which would have counted the same in the standings – their run differential would be +1. Cincinnati’s 7-4 record in one-run games certainly helps their record (though not their run differential), while their 5-9 mark in games decided by five or more runs can help explain their overall numbers.
In the Modern Era (since 1900), the Reds’ -24 run differential through their first 36 games is the worst of any team to win 20 of those games. It should be noted: Cincinnati has already used position players to pitch four times (Jose Trevino has accounted for three of those appearances, including two games in a row last week), giving up seven runs in those four innings.
Entering this week, the Padres and Reds had identical 20-14 records despite negative run differentials through their first 34 games, tying them for the second-best winning percentage in the Divisional Era for teams being outscored in that stretch. Only the 1997 Giants, who were 21-13 despite a -3 run differential, had a better winning percentage than those two clubs, while only six other teams had matched San Diego and Cincinnati’s mark.
What does any of this mean for the rest of the season? Only time will tell.