10 undervalued SPs in Yahoo fantasy drafts

Severino among hurlers being selected later than they should

March 12th, 2018

In today's fantasy landscape, reliable starting pitchers are at a premium.
Owners who rely heavily on the waiver wire for starters may unearth a gem or two but are likely going to lag behind the pack in most pitching categories, making the draft incredibly important for building a rotation.
Fantasy owners can find nice value-grabbing opportunities by comparing the MLB.com Player Preview rankings with the Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers on Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball, the Official Commissioner Game of MLB.com. The following 10 hurlers seem to be going later than they should.
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(Yankees): While owners are often wise to be skeptical of post-breakout players, Severino (2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 2017) is an exception. The hard-throwing righty showcased an outstanding skill set last year, posting a 10.7 K/9 rate with a 2.4 BB/9 rate and a 50.6 percent ground-ball rate. The 24-year-old could be set for a lengthy run as one of the game's top aces, but he can currently be drafted much later than some of the other elite fantasy starters.
MLB.com ranking: 31
Yahoo ADP: 48

(Yankees): Although he struggled with the long ball (1.8 HR/9 rate) while posting a 4.74 ERA last year, Tanaka still owns a solid 3.56 ERA alongside a 1.10 WHIP after four seasons with the Yankees. Like his teammate Severino, the 29-year-old could win plenty of games with the support of a potent lineup and a relief corps that could be one of the best in big league history.
MLB.com ranking: 69
Yahoo ADP: 93
(Cubs): The Major League ERA leader in 2016 (2.13), Hendricks bounced back from a slow start last season to post a stellar 2.19 ERA across 13 outings after returning from the disabled list on July 24. Detractors may lament the righty's lack of strikeouts (career 7.7 K/9 rate), but wise owners will be happy to choose a starter who has held opposing hitters to a lowly 26.7 percent hard-hit rate while posting a 2.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP across 590 career innings.
MLB.com ranking: 77
Yahoo ADP: 91
(Cardinals): The owner of a lifetime 4.56 ERA across 96 2/3 big league innings, Weaver is definitely a risky pick during the initial 10 rounds of a 12-team draft. But after dominating in the Minors (career 1.99 ERA) and flashing exciting potential last year when he posted a 1.49 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9 rate across a six-start stretch from Aug. 23 to Sept. 20, the righty has considerable upside.
MLB.com ranking: 93
Yahoo ADP: 131

(Rockies): Some drafters may be deterred by Gray's lifetime 4.40 ERA and connection to Coors Field, but wise owners can use that to their advantage and pick up the emerging ace at a discounted rate. The righty has the swing-and-miss stuff (career 9.5 K/9 rate) to overcome the challenge of regularly pitching at a hitters' haven, and he could take a major step forward with better fortune in the BABIP (lifetime .329) and strand-rate (career 69.4 percent) departments this year, as portended by his lifetime 3.46 FIP.
MLB.com ranking: 110
Yahoo ADP: 162
Jeff Samardzija (Giants): Although Samardzija did not help fantasy owners in the ERA department last season (4.42), he was a major asset in the WHIP (1.14) and strikeout (205) categories. Likely to post a better strand rate than the 67.5 percent mark he had a year ago, the durable right-hander -- who ranks second in baseball with 1058 1/3 innings pitched across the past five campaigns -- could see his ERA trend in the right direction.
MLB.com ranking: 101
Yahoo ADP: 173
(Dodgers): Although Maeda posted a 4.22 ERA last season (3.48 in 2016), he logged an impressive 4.1 K/BB ratio and held opposing hitters to a lowly average exit velocity of 86.2 mph, per Statcast™. If he can find a way to lower his HR/9 rate (1.5 in 2017 vs. 1.0 in 2016), the righty could be a significant fantasy asset while pitching for a Dodgers squad that should provide him with plenty of chances to earn wins this year.
MLB.com ranking: 121
Yahoo ADP: 178

Charlie Morton (Astros): Morton was among baseball's most surprising breakout performers during his 10th big league season, posting a 3.62 ERA with a 10.0 K/9 rate after logging 4.54 and 6.3 marks, respectively, over his first nine years. Fantasy owners will surely have some concerns about Morton's durability, as the righty has exceeded the 160-inning mark only once in his big league tenure. But with a four-seamer that now regularly touches the mid-to-upper 90s and a curveball that had an elite spin rate of 2,874 rpm in 2017, per Statcast™, the veteran could be primed for continued success.
MLB.com ranking: 125
Yahoo ADP: 195
J.A. Happ (Blue Jays): Consistency has become Happ's calling card, as the lanky lefty has started at least 25 games and recorded an ERA no higher than 3.61 in each of the past three seasons. For the cost of a late-round pick, Happ should be a valuable fantasy rotation option even if he can't maintain the strikeout gains he made last year (8.8 K/9 rate vs. 7.6 from '07-16).
MLB.com ranking: 158
Yahoo ADP: 238
(Blue Jays): Estrada revealed during the offseason that he had experienced trouble sleeping in the middle of the 2017 campaign but solved the problem by September, which may explain why he posted a 3.68 ERA in the season's final month after logging a 6.85 mark from June through August (3.15 over April-May). The righty also saw his BABIP (.295) and HR/9 rate (1.5) spike last season (.239 BABIP, 1.3 HR/9 from 2013-16) despite notching a 27.2 percent hard-hit rate (31.8 percent from 2013-16), so fantasy owners have multiple reasons to expect a bounceback.
MLB.com ranking: 185
Yahoo ADP: 247