Could Tatis Jr. put up Gwynn-like average in '20?

July 7th, 2020

SAN DIEGO – This list of the Padres' top 10 single-season batting leaders unfolds pretty much exactly how you'd expect it to:

  1. 1994 Tony Gwynn: .394
  2. 1997 Tony Gwynn: .372
  3. 1987 Tony Gwynn: .370
  4. 1995 Tony Gwynn: .368
  5. 1993 Tony Gwynn: .358
  6. 1984 Tony Gwynn: .351
  7. 1989 Tony Gwynn: .336
  8. 2004 Mark Loretta: .335
  9. 1992 Gary Sheffield: .330
  10. 1986 Tony Gwynn: .329

Naturally, Gwynn's name is plastered across the franchise leaderboards in every major offensive category. But there has always been a special place in Padres lore for his absurd yearly batting averages. Gwynn's career .338 average is better than any non-Gwynn single season in franchise history.

As the league-wide average has fallen over the past 20 years, it was reasonable to assume no Padres hitter would ever come close to Gwynn’s ridiculous batting averages from the 1980s and ‘90s.

But that brings us to and 2020.

To be clear: Individual numbers posted this year will absolutely be viewed through the lens of a shortened season and the COVID-19 pandemic. But if there's anyone capable of using that shortened slate to thrust himself into the Padres' record books, it's probably Tatis.

A season ago, a 20-year-old Tatis batted .317 before he was shut down in mid-August due to a lower-back injury. At the time, he was mounting a charge to become the youngest batting champion in Major League history.

Now, Tatis has been handed a 60-game slate as an encore to his outstanding rookie campaign. In his best 60-game stretch last year, from April 18 through Aug. 7, he batted an absurd .336/.397/.607 with 16 home runs and 13 steals.

So what kind of numbers might Tatis be capable of in a shortened season? Publicly, he won’t get specific. But it sounds like he has lofty goals.

"I always like to aim high," Tatis said on a Zoom call with reporters Monday, sporting a mask, as he's done all week during drills. "I always like to aim for crazy, crazy numbers and stats like that. But the most important thing is preparing myself every single day, so I can be out there for those 60 games."

Can Tatis join Gwynn as the only Padres in history to reach the .350 mark? Based on his rookie performance, it seems possible. What about .400, the number Gwynn spent most of his career assailing but never quite reaching (coming closest with his famed .394 mark in 1994)?

That seems unlikely. MLB.com's Andrew Simon recently took a look at the best 60-game stretches over the past 10 years in each major category, and Cody Bellinger and Robinson Cano came in tied at .376.

Still, it's hard to say what kind of numbers hitters might post in a season unlike any in history. But Tatis' all-out playing style might fit nicely into a shortened campaign.

"I'm anticipating to be out there every day," Tatis said. "I feel like I've prepared my body for that. It's that mindset of winter ball, where it's a shorter season around the same number of games."

After Tatis' back injury last season, questions arose as to whether his all-out playing style might need to be dialed back a bit to accommodate for the grind of a long season. It was Tatis' third significant injury in a 13-month span.

The Padres answer those questions emphatically in the negative, saying they don’t want to put any constraints on their budding superstar. Still, it's easy to envision Tatis’ style fitting nicely into the confines of 2020 baseball.

"Whether it's 162 or it's 60, anybody that plays with that passion and energy and athletic ability and all the things that he brings to the table is great," said Padres manager Jayce Tingler. "Naturally, he just has that 'it' factor."