After latest stumble, what is Peralta's Deadline value?

TORONTO -- In theory, Freddy Peralta is the Mets’ most valuable Trade Deadline asset -- a two-time All-Star smack in the middle of his physical prime, with three months left on his contract with a last-place team that loathes handing out long-term deals to pitchers.

In reality, Peralta has been statistically one of the league’s worst pitchers. Among this year’s most pressing Deadline questions, then, is the extent to which buyers will ignore Peralta’s current form in favor of his past performance.

Wednesday, Peralta allowed five runs over four innings at Rogers Centre to raise his ERA to 4.81, which was sixth-worst among qualified MLB starters pending the night's slate of games. He battled traffic all afternoon in front of a lively, sold-out Canada Day crowd, allowing seven hits -- including a three-run homer from Long Island native Sean Keys -- and three walks in a 9-3 loss to the Blue Jays.

“Not good,” Peralta said. “I don’t feel good. But just trying to come back and make the adjustments.”

This was not merely a blip for Peralta, who has given up at least five runs in three of his last five starts. President of baseball operations David Stearns recently chalked the right-hander’s struggles up to some nagging mechanical flaws. Peralta himself called it “probably” the worst stretch of his career. While Peralta has also consistently said that he will figure things out, his struggles have persisted.

So what will become of Peralta if the Mets decide to sell? Given how many teams remain in contention about a month out from the Aug. 3 Deadline, there are a dearth of obvious sellers around the league. The Mets are one of them. While Detroit’s Tarik Skubal still looms as the most enticing starting pitching option purportedly available, his projected astronomical price could have many teams looking for the next-best thing instead.

That next-best thing, on paper, should be Peralta.

It’s not as if Peralta’s under-the-hood metrics suggest he should be better, though. His fastball velocity is down close to a mile per hour from last year, while his strikeout rate is significantly reduced. His arm angle is lower, which could be contributing to his struggles on fastballs up in the zone -- his bread and butter throughout his career. Last year, opposing hitters had a .219 expected slugging percentage off Peralta’s slider. This year, even before Wednesday’s loss, that mark was at .601.

“It happens,” Peralta said. “I just need to be better.”

Then there’s the matter of Peralta’s postseason track record. Over eight years in Milwaukee, the Brewers lost eight of the nine playoff games in which he pitched. Since 2023, Peralta has started five playoff games, going 1-3 with a 5.55 ERA in those outings while averaging fewer than five innings per start. That’s not exactly the type of profile contenders want to see.

To back things up just a bit here: The Mets, despite firing manager Carlos Mendoza and dealing David Peterson to the Cubs last week, are not in full fire-sale mode. There’s a chance they may never be, if they can go on an unexpected run up the National League standings between now and the All-Star break. Stearns has said on multiple occasions, including last week, that he doesn’t intend to entertain trade discussions in a targeted way until mid-July. The Mets, for all their foibles, still have a chance to avoid that fate.

But reality is what it is. The Mets are 36-51 through more than half a season, with less than a 3% chance to make the playoffs, according to Fangraphs calculations at the time of final out. They profile as classic sellers. Among those players that would make sense to deal are relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter, starting pitcher Clay Holmes and of course Peralta.

But to sell Peralta, the Mets would need a return better than the compensatory pick they would receive if he rejects a qualifying offer. (Because the Mets are Competitive Balance Tax payors, that pick would be granted after the fourth round of next year’s Draft. Even despite Peralta’s struggles, extending him a qualifying offer would be a no-brainer.)

Peralta should still have five more starts before the Trade Deadline. At this point, it’s become five more chances to increase his stock.

“He’s a competitor who’s won his entire career,” interim manager Andy Green said. “Those guys don’t always react to struggle in the way that everybody else would like them to sometimes, but he’s not used to it. He doesn’t want to accept it. Love that. Love the fact that he’s going to get out there and compete again.”