Which free agents could teams snatch from division rivals?

December 10th, 2023

In the aftermath of Shohei Ohtani agreeing to terms on a record-breaking deal with the Dodgers and Juan Soto getting traded to the Yankees, the floodgates could open for the rest of the free-agent and trade markets in the coming days.

While some free agents -- such as Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez -- have already signed deals, there are still plenty of quality players available on the market. Twenty of MLB.com's Mark Feinsand's top 25 free agents are still unsigned, including three of the top five players on his list.

While some of these remaining free agents could follow Nola’s lead and re-sign with their clubs, others might deliver a double-whammy of sorts: not just leaving -- but leaving for a division rival. While we’re sticking with matches that appear realistic, there are quite a few players on the market who would fit well with an intradivision competitor.

With that in mind, here are the six free agents (one for each division) that could be signed away from division rivals.

NL West: LHP Blake Snell (SD to SF)

Snell might be the top free agent who could realistically find himself playing in the same division in 2024 and beyond. After winning the 2023 NL Cy Young Award -- thanks to a 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts in 180 innings -- Snell is a two-time winner of the award (2018 with the Rays). The timing of another Cy Young Award-winning season couldn't have been better, as it's widely expected that the 31-year-old lefty will secure a deal upwards of $100 million.

After seeing Ohtani join their division rivals, the Giants will need to respond with a move of their own to remain competitive in the NL West. While he's not on the level of Ohtani, Snell would bring another frontline starter to pair with Logan Webb -- who finished second in Cy Young Award voting behind Snell in '23. While Snell isn't known for his durability, he's averaged 145 innings a season since 2021 and owns a career 127 ERA+ and 29.7% strikeout rate.

NL Central: RHP Marcus Stroman (CHC to PIT)

Stroman was having a career year in the first half of 2023 for the Cubs, earning his second All-Star selection thanks to a 2.96 ERA and 3.38 FIP. After looking like he was in line for a big payday this offseason, Stroman pitched poorly right out of the gate in the second half, spent roughly six weeks on the injured list late in the season with right hip inflammation and saw his ERA balloon to 3.95 by season's end. Despite the tough ending, Stroman opted out of the final year and $21 million on his contract to become a free agent.

Owner of a career 3.65 ERA and 3.63 FIP, the 32-year-old Stroman will still be plenty enticing for teams looking for quality starting pitching. In Pittsburgh, the Pirates have questions aplenty in their rotation outside of 2023 breakout starter Mitch Keller. In Stroman, the Pirates could reliably expect a sub-4 ERA in well over 100 innings. Outside of the 2020 season that he opted out of, Stroman has averaged 160 innings in the last four seasons. The Pirates increased their win total to 76 last season, and if they are going to make a serious charge in a winnable NL Central, stabilizing their rotation with someone like Stroman would be a significant step

NL East: DH/OF Jorge Soler (MIA to NYM)

After bopping 48 home runs for the Royals in 2019, Soler regressed to a league-average hitter over the next three seasons, outside of his outstanding late-season stint with the World Series-winning Braves in 2021. After a tough first season with the Marlins in '22, Soler bounced back with a strong season at the plate last year, crushing 36 home runs with a 128 OPS+. Put it all together and you have a hitter with a career 113 OPS+ who has essentially transitioned into a full-time DH.

So why the fit with the Mets? Mainly, they need another legitimate bat to plug somewhere in the middle of their order. It's a top-heavy lineup with plenty of questions once you get past guys like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Even with Soler's fluctuating track record, there's reason to believe that his '23 performance might be legitimate -- for good this time. Soler whiffed a career-low 27.6% of the time while his .374 expected wOBA -- based on the quality and quantity of contact -- was the second-best of his career.

AL East: OF Kevin Kiermaier (TOR to BOS)

It was a tough 2023 season for the Red Sox, who finished last in the AL East with 78 wins. While pitching was Boston's clearest weakness, the Red Sox defense did no favors to help their pitching staff. By outs above average (minus-50), the Red Sox were by far the worst defensive unit in the Majors, with the second-worst team (Reds) finishing with minus-37. Yes, most of that was due to infield defense (minus-39 OAA) but Red Sox outfielders were responsible for minus-12 OAA. One way to fix that defense is signing one of the best defensive players of all time.

Kiermaier won his fourth career Gold Glove Award in his first year with the Blue Jays, racking up 13 OAA. He even had a resurgent year at the plate with a 104 OPS+, which was his best since 2017. The Red Sox have enough outfield options -- including Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and the recently acquired Tyler O'Neill -- but there's enough uncertainty in that mix to warrant signing Kiermaier on a one- or two-year deal. Perhaps, Boston could have Rafaela -- who himself is a great defender with offensive question marks -- start the year in the Minors and use the remaining five outfielders for three outfield spots and an open DH position.

AL Central: RHP Lucas Giolito (CHW/CLE to DET)

It was a turbulent contract year for Giolito, who was traded from the White Sox to the Angels at the Deadline, then placed on waivers at the end of August and plucked by the Guardians. In full, Giolito posted a 4.88 ERA and a 5.27 FIP, while allowing the second-most home runs (41) in the Majors. While it was undoubtedly a down year, there's reason to expect a better '24 season and it would make sense to see it in a Tigers uniform.

Giolito is still just 29 years old and isn't that far removed from a stretch of seasons (2019-21) when he posted a top-20 ERA (3.47) and fWAR (11.3) among qualified starters. While those peak days might be behind him, his underlying numbers suggest that he's something closer to a league-average starter for '24. The FanGraphs' Steamer projections peg Giolito for a 4.31 ERA and 2.3 WAR in 164 innings. After the Tigers signed veteran starter Kenta Maeda -- also away from a division foe, the Twins -- Giolito would round out the rotation as an innings-eating No. 4 starter with the upside to revert to his old form. Giolito would also represent important insurance for a rotation filled with younger starters who've battled injuries in recent years.

AL West: DH/C Mitch Garver (TEX to SEA)

Garver found himself as the everyday DH and frequent No. 3 hitter for the 2023 World Series champions during the playoffs, posting a .751 OPS and hitting three home runs for the Rangers. A reunion with the Rangers is certainly possible, but multiple teams in the AL West could be obvious fits for Garver. The Mariners, for example, don't have a legitimate everyday option at DH and currently have the fourth-worst projection according to the FanGraphs depth charts.

In Garver, the Mariners would acquire a hitter with a career 123 OPS+ that demolishes lefties (career .509 SLG) and fastballs (.982 OPS). Frequent injuries have limited him to playing 100-plus games in a season just once -- which has led to less time behind the plate -- but he's still a powerful bat when healthy. Notably, the Mariners are reportedly interested in Garver, according to MLB Network insider Jon Paul Morosi. Garver would also fit with the Angels with Ohtani leaving for the Dodgers.