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Giants vs. Padres Odds

Giants Odds: -105

Padres Odds: -115

Over/Under: 7.5 (-105 / -115)

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Giants and Padres continue to defy the odds in every way. San Francisco has somehow managed to fend off the 96-54 Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West through most of September, while the Padres have slipped to four games out of the Wild Card despite having one of the most talented rosters in the league.

We’ve got a near-pick ’em in San Diego with two solid pitchers on the hill in Joe Musgrove and Kevin Gausman. Do we buy the recent success at the dish for the Giants and sell the ice-cold Padres, or is there more to this one? Let’s have a look at the matchup.

Giants Trying To Fend Off LA

The aforementioned bats for the Giants have been unstoppable of late. They stand second in the league with a 140 wRC+ over the last two weeks, sporting a superb .238 ISO and walking 11.8% of the time against just a 21.6% strikeout rate. While their .329 BABIP seems to clash with their season-long .294 BABIP, there have been many bigger discrepancies, and the Giants still have an 8.9% barrel rate with 21 homers in the last 14 days.

There’s certainly a lot to believe in with this offense, which is a good thing considering Gausman’s struggles of late. The righty is still striking out hitters left and right, carrying 32 strikeouts in 23 September innings into this one, but his ERA this month is a lofty 4.70. That’s due to an influx of hits allowed (16 in his last two starts), and three homers in his last three starts.

As it stands so far, San Francisco currently leads the season series 7-6 over San Diego, with the two sides set to play two three-game series to round out the season. Gausman has faced the Padres four times in 2021, going 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 9.4 strikeouts per nine. He’s yielded just two homers in those games.

San Diego's Offense Is Scuffling

One player who’s taken no joy in this divisional rivalry is Joe Musgrove, who has seen the Giants three times and has been shelled in all of those outings. He carries a 6.75 ERA against the Giants into this one with a whopping five round-trippers allowed in just 16 innings. While the strikeouts have still been there for the most part, Musgrove has had issues with walks.

That’s essentially been the story of the season for Musgrove, whose 27.1% strikeout rate sparkles but whose 7.1% walk rate sits below average. The righty has really found something since joining the Padres, carrying strong exit velocity and swing-and-miss numbers into this one, but his expected ERA according to Statcast is almost a full run higher than his real-life ERA. He’s also had issues with the long ball lately, giving up four homers in his last three starts including two to San Francisco last week.

Don’t even get me started on this offense, either. San Diego has owned one of the very worst lineups in all of baseball since the All-Star break, and ranks last with a 69 wRC+ in the past week.

Giants-Padres Pick

There’s nothing inspiring about these Padres bats at the moment, and even against a pitcher who’s slipped just a bit lately I can’t recommend betting on them. At best, Gausman and Musgrove come into this one evenly matched, at which point the far stronger offense would become the best bet.

I’ll be taking the Giants as road underdogs, and I would continue advising that bet up to -130.

Pick: Giants ML (-105)