ST. PETERSBURG -- Perhaps the Guardians aren’t supposed to beat the Rays, but don’t tell them that. They weren’t supposed to come back from being down 0-2 to the White Sox in the AL Division Series, either.
For years, the Guardians have built their identity around José Ramírez, the homegrown superstar who has become the face of this franchise and so much more. They’ve reached the ALCS on the back of great pitching, though, and strong defense, which sounds a lot like their opponent in the Rays.
Drill right down to the very foundations of these teams, and all you’ll find are more parallels.
“Most clubs that we're talking about are the opposite, but I feel Cleveland does mirror us or we mirror them,” said Rays manager Kevin Cash. “And I say that with the utmost respect to them, the way they develop pitching, the way they think about the game. As far as developing and acquiring, there's a lot of similarities.”
This is not a clash of styles. This is not power versus speed, pitching versus hitting or veterans versus rookies. The Guardians need to do one of the hardest things in baseball, which is to beat the Rays at their own game.
This is how they can do it and take a run at their first World Series championship since 1948:
1. If José Ramírez outplays Junior Caminero
This isn’t exactly the NBA, where Victor Wembanyama going up against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the headlining battle of a series. These project to be tight games, though, and the biggest star on the field could tilt it all with one swing. Who’s it going to be?
Ramírez’s injury-affected regular season is a distant memory now. His home run in Game 5 of the ALDS still has Cleveland rocking.
“We got our backs against the wall, and he said, ‘All right; I got you,’ and that's what he's been doing for this franchise long before I got here,” said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. “And he's been through a lot this year. We've been through a lot this year, and we cannot wait to play on Monday and I can't wait to keep watching José Ramírez do what he does.”
Caminero is one of baseball’s next big things. Frankly, he’s there already, an AL MVP candidate with back-to-back seasons of 40-plus homers at just 23 years old, but Ramírez has the postseason experience, and it feels like he’s recapturing that magic again in the game’s biggest moments.
“Always in these games, you want to do your best, because it's do or die,” Ramírez said through team interpreter Agustin Rivero. “You don't win, you go home. And this team really wants to do the right things, and for me, that's the [main] thing.”
2. Cleveland’s pair of aces
Gavin Williams absolutely overwhelmed the White Sox in Game 5 of the ALDS, striking out 12 over 5 2/3 innings of scoreless ball. His 3.76 ERA this season really doesn’t capture what Williams is capable of. When he’s really on, Williams can be truly dominant and take over a game. If Cleveland is going to do this, it needs a starter … or two … to win a game all by themselves.
Parker Messick is the next-best option, expected to land on some Cy Young ballots in the AL after posting a 2.56 ERA over 186 1/3 innings. He walked four White Sox over just 2 1/3 innings last time out, though, so what’s left in the tank?
Facing the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen in Game 1 is no easy task, but keep an eye on Games 2 and 3, when the Guardians could line up Messick and Williams. They need each pitcher’s very best, but it might be the best shot they’ve got.
3. Do you believe in momentum?
The Guardians became just the 11th team to lose the first two games of a best-of-five postseason series and then come back to win, and the first since the 2017 Yankees, who did it to them. While the Rays come into the ALCS following four days off, Cleveland is still riding the lightning.
The other 10 teams to do it have gone 3-7 in their next series, but the Guardians have two blueprints to follow here. The 2012 Giants came back from down 0-2 in the NLDS and went on to win the World Series, and, back in ‘81, the Dodgers came back against the Astros in the NLDS before going on to beat the Yankees in the World Series. Can Cleveland join that even smaller club of comeback kings?
“It's about resilience,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “This group has demonstrated that time and time again throughout the course of the season. With their backs against the wall, they never had any doubt and found a way to make it happen.”
If the Guardians fall behind 0-2 in this series, and we all declare the ALCS is over, this team won’t listen. Around Ramírez, Cleveland doesn't just have a blind belief in itself; the Guardians are a rare team with the proof that they can dig themselves out of a serious hole if the other side blinks.