CLEVELAND -- This has been a roller-coaster summer for the Guardians. But all of their goals remain in front of them with the final week of the regular season upon us.
The Guardians (81-75) hold a one-game lead over the White Sox (80-76) for first place in the AL Central standings with six games remaining. Cleveland is looking to punch its ticket to the postseason for the third straight season.
Here's what you need to know about the week ahead.
What’s at stake
The Guardians lead the Central and also have a three-game lead over the AL West-leading Rangers (78-78) for the No. 2 seed in the AL. The latter comes with a first-round bye in the postseason, which would be massive.
The bye would give the Guards multiple off-days to rest. They could line up rotation anchors Gavin Williams and Parker Messick to pitch the first two games of the AL Division Series, at which point you'd have to like Cleveland's chances to advance past the best-of-five series to the ALCS.
The stakes are high this week. It will be stress-inducing. But the reward is significant.
“This is fun. This is why we play, to play meaningful games in September with a chance to get in October,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “I like waking up each morning with anxiety and wondering what the day's going to bring.
“That's far better than the alternative of just thinking about what next year's going to bring. This is why we do what we do, is to be in these moments.”
The tiebreaker situation
The White Sox own the tiebreaker over the Guardians after winning the head-to-head season series, 7-6. Cleveland must finish with a better record than Chicago to win the Central.
Remaining schedules
Guardians: at Red Sox (3), at Royals (3)
White Sox: at Royals (3) vs. Rockies (3)
How we got here
The Guardians went 10-20 coming out of the All-Star break to fall a season-high five games under .500 (61-66) and 5 1/2 games behind the White Sox in the Central. Cleveland is 20-9 since, which is tied with Milwaukee for the best record in MLB since Aug. 20.
Chicago is 14-16 over that same span, which included the Guardians winning a three-game series at Progressive Field last week.
“The feeling in the clubhouse is pretty awesome right now,” Guardians closer Cade Smith said after a 1-0 win over the A’s on Sunday. “We’ve got some momentum. We've got confidence in the way we're playing. We're playing clean baseball.
“There's this kind of calm focus that we're ready to go out there and play. We're looking forward to taking it one game at a time and finishing strong and setting us up for the postseason.”
The math
The Guardians have to match the White Sox or do better over the final six games. If they both go 3-3, for example, Cleveland would maintain its one-game lead and win the Central.
If the White Sox go 5-1 and the Guardians go 4-2, they would have the same record after Game 162. Chicago would win the division due to the tiebreaker.
According to FanGraphs, the Guardians had a 97.6% chance to reach the postseason as of Monday morning and a 62.7% chance to win the Central.
The alternate path
If not the division, the Guardians could make the postseason through the Wild Card race, likely through the third spot. The Yankees (89-66) and Red Sox (84-72) appear to have a secure hold on the top two spots, though nothing is set in stone yet.
The third Wild Card team will play a best-of-three road series against the division winner with the fewest wins. Right now, that means the Rangers, though the Astros (77-79) are one game behind Texas in the AL West.
Winning the Central would allow the Guardians to avoid the convoluted Wild Card race. The Blue Jays and Astros are both 77-79 and three games back of the final spot. They both hold the tiebreaker over the Guardians.
Cleveland's cleanest path to the postseason is not letting it come down to that, but taking care of business to win the Central.
Probable starters
Against Boston, it’s Messick vs. Payton Tolle (Tuesday), Foster Griffin vs. Sonny Gray (Wednesday) and TBD vs. Ranger Suarez.
For Thursday’s finale, it sounded Sunday like the Guardians were mulling their options, such as Tanner Bibee starting on four days’ rest or Joey Cantillo following an opener on five days’ rest.
Injuries of note
The Guardians hope shortstop Brayan Rocchio will return to action Tuesday. He exited Saturday’s 12-6 win over the A’s due to left leg tightness and did not play Sunday. Reliever Shawn Armstrong (left calf strain) is eligible to be activated off the 60-day IL on Wednesday.