ST. PETERSBURG -- Just one game in, we’re already looking at a different ALCS landscape than most expected after the Guardians came back to beat the Rays, 7-3, in their own house.
Now, the Rays need to come up big in Game 2 behind Freddy Peralta to avoid travelling to Cleveland down 0-2, where the Guardians’ fans at Progressive Field will be a factor just like they were during that incredible ALDS run.
Cleveland’s Game 1 win came on the back of its excellent bullpen, which held the game within reach behind Foster Griffin on Monday night, but its offense showed some encouraging pop later in the game, too, with home runs from Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey. It all comes back to José Ramírez, though, who surely has a few big moments hidden up his sleeve, waiting to unleash them on a new series.
“José is our guy,” said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. “When he gets going, when he gets on base, we know he's going to make some things happen. He puts pressure on the defense. The pitchers have to be quicker to the plate. It affects everything.”
The Rays will need more from their offense, starting with the top of their lineup with Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and the great Junior Caminero, but they’ll also need Peralta to control this game. In the ALDS, Peralta gave Tampa Bay 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees, and he’s been one of this organization’s best stories since he was acquired from the Mets at the Trade Deadline. Countering for the Guardians will be Parker Messick, who’s looking to bounce back after a couple of ALDS appearances that weren’t quite as sharp as his regular season.
Given how these teams are built and how they’ve played one another in the past, Monday’s score might be one of the biggest offensive outputs we see. Given how close the game was until the Guardians broke through in the later innings, it felt even tighter than the score suggests, and Rays manager Kevin Cash believes his team will bounce back quickly after their first loss since Sept. 27, the final day of the regular season.
“They're a very good team,” Cash said. “There will be some tight ball games, one swing of the bat here, one big pitch or one big play. I know we got separated there at the end [in Game 1]. It felt like we were, ourselves, a big swing of the bat away multiple times throughout that game.”
There’s history on the line in this ALCS, too. The Rays have never won the World Series since entering the league in 1998 and the Guardians haven’t won the World Series since 1948, the longest title drought in Major League Baseball.
When is the game and how can I watch it
First pitch for Game 2 of the Guardians-Rays American League Championship Series is set for 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Tropicana Field. The game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and HBO Max.
Spanish-language game broadcasts will be available on UniMas for the ALCS, and Spanish-language radio broadcasts will be available on Univision’s TUDN Radio.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Guardians: Parker Messick, LHP
Key Stats: Messick allowed one run on six hits with six strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings at Tropicana Field on July 26.
Messick frequented Tropicana Field as a kid while growing up in nearby Plant City, Fla. He expects to have a large contingent of loved ones in the house on Tuesday as he aims to get the Guardians two wins away from a trip to the Fall Classic.
Messick made two starts in the ALDS against the White Sox. He was better in Game 1 (two runs over 4 1/3 innings) than Game 4, when he issued a career-high-tying four walks and threw 65 pitches over 2 1/3 innings before Vogt pulled the plug on his outing.
Messick is a key reason the Guardians have gotten this far this season. He said Monday he’s feeling good physically, and a bit of home cooking could be just what he needs to bounce back from his outing in Chicago.
Rays: Freddy Peralta, RHP
Key Stats: 5-0, 0.93 ERA in last seven starts since Aug. 26.
The Rays will turn to Peralta in Game 2, as they did in the AL Division Series, trusting the veteran right-hander’s combination of stuff, experience and renewed confidence along with his performance inside Tampa Bay’s ballpark. He was disappointed he couldn’t get through five innings in his ALDS outing, but he was still effective as he held the Yankees to one run on three hits and a walk while striking out three over 4 2/3 innings. And his stuff looked electric, especially his signature four-seamer. “Fastball Freddy” threw his heater 65% of the time, and his average velocity was up 2.5 mph, from 94.3 to 96.8.
The Rays have not announced their rotation beyond Peralta and likely won’t confirm a Game 3 starter until Wednesday’s off-day in Cleveland.
What might the starting lineups look like?
Guardians: Don’t look for the Guardians to make too many changes from Game 1, other than Austin Hedges drawing the start at catcher. He has been the customary battery mate for Messick this season. While Patrick Bailey is swinging a hot bat, it’s very unlikely Cleveland will switch things up on Messick at this stage of what has been a stellar rookie season. Beyond that, perhaps Angel Martínez could work his way back into the starting lineup after sitting the past two days. Before his ninth-inning single in Game 1, he was 0-for-16 with nine strikeouts this postseason. It feels more likely that Vogt will have him as a pinch-hitting option to deploy against a lefty after Peralta exits.
1. Steven Kwan, LF
2. José Ramírez, 3B
3. Chase DeLauter, RF
4. Jo Adell, DH
5. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B
6. Travis Bazzana, 2B
7. Petey Halpin, CF
8. Austin Hedges, C
9. Brayan Rocchio, SS
Rays: The Rays rolled with their right-handers against the lefty Foster Griffin in Game 1, and it’s possible they will do the same against Messick in Game 2. But Messick’s changeup really neutralized right-handed hitters this season, so the Rays could mix in some lefties to make him mix up his offerings.
1. Yandy Díaz, DH
2. Jonathan Aranda, 1B
3. Junior Caminero, 3B
4. Liam Hicks, C
5. Ryan Vilade, RF
6. Chandler Simpson, LF
7. Jonny DeLuca, CF
8. Richie Palacios, 2B
9. Taylor Walls, SS
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Guardians: With an off-day on Wednesday, Vogt could have a full bullpen at his disposal to deploy as needed after Messick exits. He used setup men Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski, and closer Cade Smith in Game 1, and all should be available alongside lefty Tim Herrin in Game 2. Smith only threw six pitches in a 1-2-3 ninth inning Monday.
Rays: The Rays bullpen is still quite well-rested after Game 1 of the ALCS, although they’re a little more bruised than they’ve been in a bit. Right-hander Cole Sulser is likely unavailable after throwing 27 pitches in Game 1, and it’s hard to imagine lefty Ian Seymour working back-to-back days after spending most of the season as a starter. But nobody besides Sulser, including Seymour, threw more than nine pitches out of the bullpen in Game 1. Closer Bryan Baker got the save in all three games of the ALDS, but pitched every game with a day of rest thanks to the schedule and wasn’t needed in the ALCS opener.
Any injuries of note?
Guardians: None.
Rays: Caminero and DeLuca said they were fine after a nasty collision while chasing a foul ball in Game 1. Left-hander Shane McClanahan, who finished the regular season on the injured list due to left forearm tightness, was shut down for the rest of the postseason, Cash said on Sunday. Otherwise, nothing new.
Who is hot and who is not?
Guardians: In six games this postseason, Bailey is hitting .368 (7-for-19) with two homers. Ramírez is batting .348 (8-for-23) with a 1.183 OPS and eight RBIs in six games. Rocchio is 2-for-18 in six games. Smith has a 1.17 ERA with 11 strikeouts and one walk in 7 2/3 innings, and Gaddis has not been charged with a run in 5 1/3 innings over six appearances.
Rays: Pretty much everyone who touched the mound for the Rays in the ALDS performed well, which bodes well for them moving forward, even after a shaky start in the ALCS. It hasn’t been quite so great at the plate, though. Aranda was their best hitter in the ALDS but went hitless in Game 1. Caminero had an RBI single in Game 1, but he hasn’t had a real “moment” yet. Cedric Mullins, Victor Mesa Jr. and Vilade have each homered, but that’s about it. The Rays likely need to get more from the rest of their lineup, though, to keep up with the Guardians in this series.
Anything else fans might want to know?
• Longtime Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who was part of the 2020 club that reached the World Series, will throw out the ceremonial first pitch before Game 2.
• The Rays have combined for 101 wins between the regular season and postseason, tied with the 2021 club for the second-most in franchise history. The 2008 team won 105 games overall.
• Cleveland has won three of its previous six ALCS appearances, with wins coming in 1995, 1997 and 2016 and losses in ‘98, ‘07 and ‘24.
• Ramírez has an RBI in four straight postseason games, which is tied for the longest streak in Cleveland postseason history with Jim Thome (1998-99) and Sandy Alomar (1997).