When it comes to Henry Davis, no one should ever question the work. Or the amount of care with which the Pirates catcher operates. But as far as results, Davis knows they’ve lacked.
Davis has done his part by putting in the time and being a good teammate, but it's that next step where things get interesting. The latest bit of evidence arrived Monday, as Davis’ home run in the seventh inning carried the Pirates to a 2-1 victory over the Cubs at PNC Park.
Despite hitting .111 in May prior to the Pirates’ Memorial Day game — they won at home on the holiday for the first time since 2017 — Davis feels like he’s had his best month of work at the Major League level.
He simply hasn’t gotten the results to show for it.
“It’s been super frustrating,” Davis said. “Just trying to stay diligent, work hard and be prepared.”
There are certainly some interesting numbers attached to Davis this month, indicators that a breakout might be near.
1. Among Pirates hitters with at least 30 plate appearances in May, Davis ranks second on the Pirates with a .378 expected weighted on base average (xwOBA).
(Weighted on-base average, for anyone who doesn’t know, is almost a cousin of on-base percentage in that it aims to quantify HOW a player reached based.)
Furthermore, when examining the entire season, Davis ranks in the 71st percentile in average exit velocity, the 67th in whiff rate, the 70th in strikeout percentage and the 53rd when considering the rate of walks drawn.
In other words, statistics that paint the picture of better performance, along with a BABIP (.037) this month that’s the lowest among all MLB with at least 30 plate appearances.
“It’ll go,” Davis insisted. “The stuff I’ve done, hitting the ball harder, hitting the ball well, taking my walks, striking out less, that’s an indication of stuff in the future.”
2. The reaction to Davis’ homer throughout the home clubhouse took on a familiar tone. While he’s certainly been criticized by fans, the Pirates appreciate everything Davis does behind the scenes, how much he helps pitchers and how he has refused to let the offensive struggles carry over.
“He works his ass off,” Carmen Mlodzinski said. “He’s here early every day. To see him get rewarded is a good feeling, for sure.”
“He’s worked extremely hard to get his swing to a much better place,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said. “Unfortunately, he hasn’t had the results. But the approach, the process, has been so good. It’s really great to see him have a moment like that in such a big situation.”
The home run itself was impressive. It came on a 1-1 cutter at the bottom of the zone, and Davis lofted it to left for a 413-foot solo shot. Davis now has five hits in May. Four have been homers.
What stood out about this particular swing, though, was how Davis pulled the ball without really trying to do so. He’s been prone to that in the past, plenty of foul balls driven into the seats. But Davis has been working on staying more up the middle.
That has enabled him to turn on something like he did against Cubs reliever Trent Thornton.
“Squared it up. I was pretty pumped,” Davis said. “Offspeed pitch, down and away. Just tried to keep it fair.”
3. Where this goes will be interesting. Joey Bart has a doctor’s appointment Thursday and is probably still a month out from returning from a left foot infection.
Endy Rodriguez, meanwhile, has hit .316 with an .848 OPS in seven Major League games. He’s done enough to at least warrant an equal split, if not more, depending on what happens with Davis.
Davis, the first overall pick in 2021, has been solid defensively but obviously wants more out of his career. He wants swings like the one he delivered Monday.
What if the work he’s been doing in May actually translates? Can you imagine what that would mean for the Pirates offense?
4. Don’t look now, but the Pirates bullpen appears to be in far better shape.
The headliner in this one was Wilber Dotel, who worked three scoreless innings, giving up one hit and striking out four to earn his first MLB win. Dotel has cleared triple digits with his fastball. But against the Cubs, his wipeout slider was his best pitch.
It netted half of his six whiffs. Meanwhile, Dotel’s changeup is legit, and he gives the Pirates a terrific chess piece, a converted starter who can work multiple innings.
Mason Montgomery has been solid. Gregory Soto closed this one out. If the Pirates can get Dennis Santana, Isaac Mattson and maybe Justin Lawrence back on track, this group could turn it around.
“To be able to bridge from the sixth inning to the ninth is huge,” Kelly said.
5. This represented a much more aggressive start for Mlodzinski, who lowered his season ERA to 3.76 with five innings of one-run ball. He threw his four-seam fastball 48% of the time Monday compared to 27% on the season.
“We recognized pretty quick that I was executing it well,” Mlodzinski said. “The velocity was good. I think the usage was higher because I was executing it better throughout the game.”
It came at the expense of his sinker and curveball, which Mlodzinski used a combined 12%. Mlodzinski also had more bite and velocity to his slider.
6. Mlodzinski has prevented home runs with the best of ‘em this season, giving up just two in 50 innings prior to Monday. Among NL pitchers who’ve worked at least 40 innings in 2026, nobody had allowed fewer.
But first baseman Michael Busch tied the game in the fifth inning with a rare long ball off Mlodzinski, one the Pirates starter will certainly want back.
After falling behind in the count, 2-1, Mlodzinski left a sinker out over the plate, and Busch made him pay, driving it 409 feet at 105.5 mph over the center-field fence to tie the game at 1.
7. This recent run by Mlodzinski has been impressive. Since allowing five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings May 2 against the Reds, Mlodzinski has worked 21 innings over four starts, producing an ERA of 2.14.
Furthermore, when looking at the entire season, the Pirates improved to 8-3 in games when Mlodzinski pitches.
Whether he moves to the bullpen when Jared Jones returns or remains in the starting rotation, Mlodzinski has been very valuable to the Pirates pitching staff.
“There are tough decisions,” Kelly said, “and sometimes it's a really good thing when you have tough decisions to make."
8. Scoring first has been a hallmark of the Pirates’ season. They’ve now done it 36 times or in two-thirds of their games.
Brandon Lowe did the honors Monday, crushing an 0-1 changeup from Cubs starter Ben Brown 401 feet to center field for a double, scoring Spencer Horwitz. The Pirates improved to 25-11 this season when scoring first.
9. A baseball oddity occurred in the first inning, something explainable given the dimensions of PNC Park but quirky nonetheless.
This past Thursday, Lowe hit a home run at Busch Stadium that measured 342 feet. Lowe hit one the same distance against the Cubs … yet he wound up with a single after it hit the Clemente Wall.
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.