Comparing 2018-19 free-agent class to past stars

With Harper, Machado, star-studded group arguably among best ever

August 3rd, 2018
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The star-studded 2018-19 free-agent class is shaping up to be arguably one of the best of all time.
Unprecedented? Maybe.
Just look at the historical position-specific free agency comps for the top players in this class and imagine each of these past stars hitting the open market at the same time.

Historical comp: Barry Bonds in 1992-93 (signed six-year, $43 million contract with Giants)
Bonds showed frequent flashes of brilliance during his Pirates tenure, which included two National League MVP Awards, but at the plate, he wasn't yet the fully formed force of nature he would become after signing with the Giants at age 28 in December 1992. While Harper, who will be 26 years old when he hits the open market after this season, has similarly had moments of greatness early in his career -- including his '15 NL MVP Award-winning campaign -- the potential is there for something more. Whether Harper emulates Bonds and reaches that next level after entering free agency remains to be seen.
Additional comp: Larry Walker in 1994-95 (signed four-year, $22.5 million contract with Rockies

Manny Machado
Historical comp: Alex Rodriguez in 2000-01 (signed 10-year, $252 million contract with Rangers)
Like Rodriguez, Machado broke into the Majors as a teenager and quickly reached a star level on the left side of the infield. Rodriguez entered free agency as a 25-year-old after the 2000 season, just a year younger than Machado is now, and he inked what was then the largest contract in baseball history with the Rangers. Machado is likely headed for a similar payday, whether it's as a shortstop or a third baseman.
(If he opts out of his contract)
Historical comp: Roger Clemens in 1996-97 (signed three-year, $25 million contract with Blue Jays)
Clemens entered free agency with his value seemingly on the decline, having posted a 3.77 ERA from 1993-96 -- the first four seasons of his 30s. Of course, the right-hander still had a lot left in the tank, as he won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards with Jays in '97-98, another with the Yankees in 2001 and his seventh and final one with the Astros in '04. If Kershaw opts out of the remaining two seasons on his contract this offseason, he too will hit the open market with the arrow pointing down. While the numbers have remained stellar, the left-hander has gone on the disabled list due to back problems in four of the past five seasons, and he has worked with noticeably diminished velocity in '18. However, Kershaw is still just 30 years old -- Clemens was 34 when he signed with Toronto -- so he should land a massive deal if he exercises his opt-out clause.

Historical comp: A.J. Burnett in 2005-06 (signed five-year, $55 million contract with Blue Jays
Corbin is in the midst of a breakout campaign about four years after undergoing Tommy John surgery, recording a 3.09 ERA with an 11.1 K/9 rate, so he'll enter free agency at peak value. However, the left-hander has battled inconsistency during his career and owns a lifetime 3.91 ERA (109 ERA+). Burnett similarly rebounded with a stellar walk-year showing in 2005 after needing Tommy John surgery in '03, but he hit the market with an unremarkable lifetime 3.73 ERA (111 ERA+) and was plagued by inconsistency his entire big league tenure.

A.J. Pollock
Historical comp: Aaron Rowand in 2007-08 (signed five-year, $60 million contract with Giants)
Rowand was a first-round Draft pick who exhibited stellar defensive skills and had a well-rounded offensive game. He also dealt with his share of injury problems, some of them caused by his aggressive play in center field. Sound familiar? Rowand hit the free-agent market as a 30-year-old after a 2007 campaign in which he posted a personal-best 27 homers with a .309/.374/.515 slash line. Although the 30-year-old Pollock missed more than six weeks with a fractured left thumb and has cooled off since the beginning of August, he may still top his career high of 20 homers before the end of the year, and his lifetime slash line of .282/.339/.466 is comparable to what Rowand's was through the end of 2007 season (.286/.343/.462).
Additional comp: in 2017-18 (signed five-year, $80 million contract with Brewers)

Josh Donaldson
Historical comp: in 2016-17 (signed four-year, $64 million contract with Dodgers)
Donaldson and Turner are both late bloomers who bounced around to multiple positions before finding a home at the hot corner and becoming MVP candidates (and an MVP Award winner in Donaldson's case) in their late 20s/early 30s. Some durability questions followed Turner when he hit the open market after the 2016 season, but Los Angeles ultimately re-signed him to a four-year deal as a 32-year-old in December '16. Similarly, Donaldson will become a free agent as a 32-year-old coming off back-to-back injury-plagued campaigns.

Historical comp: in 2016-17 (signed 5-year, $86 million contract with Yankees)
Plenty of dominant closers have reached free agency in the past decade-plus, so there's no shortage of comps for Kimbrel. Chapman fits best, as he became a free agent as a 28-year-old after posting a 2.08 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and a 15.2 K/9 rate over his first seven seasons. To this point, the 30-year-old Kimbrel owns a lifetime 1.85 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and a 14.7 K/9 rate.
Additional comps: in 2017-18 (signed three-year, $52 million contract with Rockies),  in '16-17 (signed four-year, $62 million contract with Giants),  in '08-09 (signed three-year, $37 million contract with Mets)


Historical comp: Frank Viola in 1991-92 (signed three-year, $13.9 million contract with Red Sox
Keuchel's career has been remarkably similar to that of Viola, a fellow left-hander who struggled early in his big league tenure before taking home the AL Cy Young Award in his age-28 campaign. He also excelled in the postseason for the World Series-winning Twins in '87. However, Viola tailed off a bit in the three years preceding his sojourn into free agency following the '91 season. Keuchel earned the AL Cy Young Award in his age-27 campaign and excelled in the postseason for the World Series champion Astros last year, but his regular season performance over the past three campaigns hasn't quite matched his peak.
Additional comp: Barry Zito in 2006-07 (signed seven-year, $126 million contract with Giants)
Charlie Morton
Historical comp: in 2012-13 (signed three-year, $33 million contract with Brewers)
After recording a 4.54 ERA over his first nine seasons, Morton broke out last year and has been one of the AL's better pitchers in 2018. Although Lohse never displayed the strikeout ability Morton has shown in the past two seasons, he was outstanding for the Cardinals from '11-12 (3.11 ERA) after posting a 4.79 ERA from '01-10. Lohse finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting in '12 before landing a three-year deal with Milwaukee at 34 -- Morton's current age.
Additional comps: Jason Schmidt in 2006-07 (signed three-year, $47 million contract with Dodgers), Ryan Dempster in '12-13 (signed two-year, $26.5 million contract with Red Sox)

Historical comp: Russell Martin in 2014-15 (signed five-year, $82 million contract with Blue Jays)
Prior to becoming a free agent in the 2014-15 offseason, Martin had built a reputation as a plus defender with solid on-base skills (.359 OBP from 2006-14) and power (114 homers from 2006-14). Grandal has shown similar traits, consistently rating well as a pitch-framer and posting a lifetime .239/.339/.439 slash line with 112 home runs since debuting in 2012.
Additional comp: Charles Johnson in 2000-01 (signed five-year, $35 million contract with Marlins)

Historical comp: Frank Thomas in 2006-07 (signed two-year, $18 million contract with Blue Jays)
Thomas, a Hall of Famer and one of the most imposing hitters in baseball history, was in the twilight of his career in 2006, but he produced 39 homers with 114 RBIs and a .926 OPS for the A's and finished fourth in AL MVP Award voting despite playing nary an inning on defense. Thomas was 38 when he inked a two-year deal with Toronto in November '06. Now 38, Cruz has belted 36 home runs and recorded an .882 OPS while making 125 of his 128 starts as the Mariners' designated hitter in '18.


Historical comp: Mark Buehrle in 2011-12 (signed four-year, $58 million contract with Marlins
Gonzalez has been incredibly durable during his career, making 31-plus starts in seven of the eight seasons from 2010-17 and 29 to this point in '18. He has also typically been a good, but not great, rotation option, recording a lifetime 3.71 ERA (110 ERA+). Buehrle was similar, tossing 200-plus innings in 11 straight seasons and recording a 3.82 ERA (120 ERA+) in that span before entering the free-agent market in '12.
Additional comp: Andy Pettitte in 2003-04 (signed three-year, $31.5 million contract with Astros)

Historical comp: Mark Loretta in 2006-07 (signed one-year, $2.5 million contract with Astros)
Loretta was a solid but light-hitting infielder throughout his 20s, recording a .291/.356/.387 slash line with the Brewers from '95-01. While he found another gear after signing with the Padres in December 2002, slashing .325/.382/.469 over '03-04 and earning a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting in '04, he took a step back in '05-06 (.286/.348/.365) before entering free agency again. Murphy has followed a similar trajectory, becoming an MVP candidate with the Nationals in his early 30s after a mostly unremarkable tenure with the Mets. However, like Loretta, Murphy won't be heading into free agency on the highest of notes, as he has recorded a .777 OPS this season after missing all of April and May while recovering from offseason knee surgery.


Historical comp: Eric Gagne in 2007-08 (signed one-year, $10 million contract with Brewers)
Miller, an ineffective starter turned dominant reliever, has missed much of this season with various injuries, and he owns a 3.54 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP in his 28 innings of work -- far below his established standard of excellence. Gagne, an ineffective starter turned dominant reliever, sat out most of 2005-06 due to injuries and posted a 3.81 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP in '07 -- far below his ... well, you get the picture. Gagne pitched just one more big league campaign in '08, recording a 5.44 ERA as a 32-year-old. However, his health woes were far more serious than Miller's, as Gagne underwent Tommy John surgery -- the second of his career -- in '05 and back surgery to repair a herniated disc in '06.
Additional comp: Joe Nathan in 2011-12 (signed two-year, $14 million contract with Rangers)
Other notable free agents:, Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, , , , , , , , , , , DJ LeMahieu, , Evan Gattis, , , , ,

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Thomas Harrigan is an editor for MLB.com.