Happy New Year! (I think I can still say that, can’t I?)
The calendar has flipped to 2021, giving those around the game hope that the free-agent market will begin to move as teams continue to reshape their rosters for the upcoming season.
Since we last spoke, the Padres have made two enormous trades, serving notice to the Dodgers and the rest of the National League. But the Hot Stove can’t survive on San Diego alone, so let’s take a look at some of the other issues hovering over the baseball offseason. (Some questions have been slightly edited for clarity.)
As always, you can send your questions to me on Twitter @feinsand.
Do you see the market picking up once Trevor Bauer signs? Is he the key that unlocks the rest of the pitching market?
-- @ryan_pierce94
Bauer’s situation could be holding up a couple of teams from doing business, but I don’t know that it’s directly responsible for other free-agent starters remaining unsigned.
The National League Cy Young Award winner is far and away the top starter available this offseason, so teams looking to pay big bucks for an ace aren’t necessarily looking at Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka or Taijuan Walker as Plan B.
The teams that miss out on Bauer could very well pivot to one of those pitchers because they’re the best of the rest, but none will fill the role of No. 1 starter that Bauer does.
We’ve seen several starters sign already this offseason: Charlie Morton, Mike Minor, Drew Smyly, Robbie Ray and Kohei Arihara have all inked free-agent deals since the season ended, while Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman also accepted $18.9 million qualifying offers.
Bauer’s signing could cause a domino effect, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of those Tier 2 starters sign deals before he chooses a new team.
What's keeping the logjam of relievers from signing? Is there a first signing everyone is expecting to set the market?
-- @URALiebermaniac
The logjam you speak of is likely being caused by the sheer number of quality relievers currently on the market. With so many solid options including Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Archie Bradley, Alex Colomé and Trevor Rosenthal, teams aren’t being forced to focus on one or two in an attempt to upgrade their bullpens.
Four years ago, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen were inarguably the top relievers available, and both signed record contracts as free agents. This current group includes plenty of good arms, but some of the teams in the market for a late-inning reliever might value each of them differently, creating a bullpen-themed game of musical chairs.
Hendriks appears to have the most suitors of the current batch of free-agent relievers, so perhaps things will start to clear up once he signs a deal. The White Sox, Astros and Blue Jays seem to be the three clubs making the biggest push for Hendriks.
Are the Padres more likely to sign Kirby Yates or Trevor Rosenthal?
-- @PadresDiehard
Based on what we’ve seen from Padres general manager A.J. Preller over the past couple of weeks, why not both? Heck, why not sign Hendriks, Hand and Bradley, too?
I’m kidding about the latter, of course. (Or am I?) The Padres’ trades for Blake Snell and Yu Darvish have put them in the conversation for the best team in baseball, especially when you consider they had the second-best record in the NL last season without the two frontline starters.
As for the bullpen, I think Yates is the more likely of the two, though both could return. Yates will be 34 on Opening Day and is coming off a season in which he threw just 4 1/3 innings thanks to a bad right elbow that required surgery. If he has to take a one-year deal to prove he’s healthy, why not do that with the Padres?
After missing the 2018 season and struggling in his '19 return, Rosenthal signed a one-year deal for $2 million with the Royals last winter. Kansas City traded him to the Padres in late-August, and all he did with San Diego was pitch nine times in the regular season without allowing one run.
Rosenthal, who will be 30 when the season begins, should be able to land a multiyear deal. It’s easy to see him returning to the Padres to be their closer, but with so many good relievers out there, it’s impossible to predict who will wind up where when the music finally stops.
Who is the major player domino that is likely to be talked about as trade bait at the Trade Deadline?
-- @Darrell_Samuels
I happened to write about the trade market this week, so I’d suggest checking out our 4th annual “All-Trade Rumor Team” for a look at who might be traded in the coming weeks and months.
While some of these players could be dealt before the season begins -- such as Francisco Lindor, who was traded to the Mets on Thursday -- it’s difficult to predict who will be the focus of the Trade Deadline, because we don’t know what the standings will look like.
The Giants have several key players (Buster Posey, Kevin Gausman, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto) headed for free agency after 2021, as do the Cubs (Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo and Craig Kimbrel), so if either of these teams is underperforming, they could wind up being major players at the Deadline.
What does the financial situation in Philly look like? If they can’t spend on J.T. Realmuto, who else can they get? What is Dave Dombrowksi’s plan for this team?
-- @emma_houghton9
While I can’t speak to the Phillies’ bottom line as an organization, I can help you look at the payroll situation in the coming years to figure out where they stand.
Philadelphia has roughly $130 million committed for 2021, though its Competitive Balance Tax number is probably closer to $150 million when you factor in benefits, etc. That leaves the club about $60 million short of the CBT threshold, though there’s no indication that the Phillies plan to spend more than $200 million on payroll in '21.
The Phillies can certainly spend on Realmuto; the question is whether they want to pay him what he’s asking for. Perhaps his price comes down and theirs goes up, creating common ground that leads to a reunion. This scenario wouldn’t shock me, especially now that the Mets are out of his market with their signing of James McCann.
Dombrowski’s long-term plan for this team will likely look like the ones he’s implemented in each of his other stops. Trade some prospects for proven veterans, spend money to bring in impactful free agents, and, most importantly, win.
That doesn’t mean Dombrowski will spend big this offseason -- the pandemic has altered the entire market -- but with only $93 million currently committed for 2022 and $65 million for '23, the Phillies should be players in free agency for the foreseeable future.
What’s your favorite sandwich?
-- @DavidWaldstein
The Z-Man. It’s not even close. And Ben Zobrist agrees with me.