What does Scherzer's return mean for Blue Jays' jam-packed rotation?

9:15 PM UTC

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- Good problems still need good answers.

You can really never have enough starting pitching, as we’re reminded each spring, but the Blue Jays are chasing a World Series here, which requires more than a stacked staff. While Toronto could field nearly two full rotations following their agreement with on a one-year deal, depth is just half of this conversation. Maximizing this group’s ceiling is the other side, and when October comes again, that’s what will matter.

Scherzer is expected to join the Blue Jays at some point this weekend for his physical, and from there, he’ll likely face some live hitters before the Blue Jays chart out a plan. This is an ever-evolving puzzle, and more pieces are added by the week.

Bieber is trailing behind a bit on a “delayed” ramp-up after some forearm fatigue, but all signs point towards him being ready to join the rotation early in the season.

It’s easy to say that this overcrowding will take care of itself -- it almost always does -- but the Blue Jays will need to push the right buttons at the right time along the way.

“There’s good and bad to it. Asking guys to be flexible and adjust quickly, that’s not as easy as it looks or sounds,” John Schneider said. “We’ve definitely learned from it. There’s a give and take. It’s giving rest, but also keeping guys sharp. It’s like when bullpen guys have too long of a layoff. We have some ideas. We’re not going to try to reinvent the wheel and say we’re going to a six, seven or eight-man rotation. We’ve got to keep guys on turn and regularly rested with an ability to stay sharp, too.”

What’s the plan for Scherzer?
Good luck getting Scherzer to relax on the beach for a couple of months. A wildly intense competitor, Scherzer will be smart about this, but he’s here to compete and win games, not wait around.

“I think one of the things we do know about him is that he’s very particular with routines,” Schneider said. “We’ll just hash that out when he gets here.”

That’s an important clue here, and it lines up with what we heard about Scherzer late last season. Eventually, the Blue Jays will need to decide which starters will stay on strict schedules (like Gausman) and which starters can be a little more flexible. Don’t expect Scherzer to be the one they bounce around, so if he’s in the rotation, that feels like it needs to be a secure, regular spot.

How will the Blue Jays manage their other starters?
Some of this will happen naturally. Bieber won’t be ready by Opening Day, and Schneider has already said the Blue Jays will be “strategic” with the workload for Yesavage. The 22-year-old phenom was a breakout star of the 2025 run, but they aren’t about to force-feed him 32 starts and 200 innings.

This is what it looks like when a World Series contender actually acts like one, though. The Dodgers are the easy comparison here, stacking up what feels like “too much” pitching each year, only to have it all work out in the end.

The reality here is that some pitchers who would be a No. 3 or No. 4 for lesser teams could be relegated to swingman roles or left on the outside looking in.

“I wish I could keep everyone happy,” Schneider said. “I think that their play and their performance dictates it. Everyone is a big boy. They understand where we’re at.”

What about Lauer?
Lauer has already stated his desire to start, loud and clear. He’s been a good teammate about this desire to return to starting, stretching back to last season, when he was bumped from the rotation after making 15 very valuable starts, but that’s a conversation the Blue Jays have to keep having with the lefty.

“They’re the same with everyone, really. We all have the same goal in mind,” Schneider said. “Everyone is going to have opportunities to do that. We’re really just focused on who the best five are at any given time. When you start peeking over your shoulder and start counting bodies, that’s when you get in trouble."

That even applies to Scherzer, he added. Everything is on the table -- trades included -- if the right offers come from teams without the luxury of an influx of starting pitchers later in camp.

May the best five win.