How do the Rays stack up against AL East rivals?

January 7th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- In a way, last year was the final American League East race of its kind.

As part of a more balanced MLB schedule, the Rays will no longer play 19 games over six series against each of their division rivals. This year, those AL East slugfests will be slightly scaled back to 13 meetings across four total series. That means a total of 52 divisional games per team, down from 76 in past seasons.

But the competition in the AL East is no different than before. If anything, it’s only going to get tougher.

Tampa Bay has been relatively quiet so far this winter, but it still has the talent to contend for another trip to the postseason. FanGraphs’ projected WAR totals provide a snapshot of each roster, and by that metric, the Rays rank fifth -- behind only the Yankees, Mets, Padres and Braves. It’s not hard to imagine some of those projections playing out if the Rays stay healthy and get star-level production from , , , and .

Let’s look at how Tampa Bay’s AL East competition has changed this offseason.

Yankees
Last season: 99-63, first place

Perhaps you heard: The Yankees re-signed AL MVP and named him their captain. They also spent big on starter , giving them a potent rotation with and Rodón in front of Nestor Cortes, , and . Additionally, New York brought back first baseman and signed reliever .

But the Yankees also lost several key players to free agency, including , , and . They’re counting on prospects to eventually step up at shortstop and in left field, although the latter could be an area they upgrade before Opening Day as one of the clubs reportedly in on the Pirates’ .

The Rays went 8-11 last season against the Yankees, the only division rival who won their season series vs. Tampa Bay, but they lost five of those games by just one run. Considering how deep both rotations look, expect more close games this year.

Blue Jays
Last season: 92-70, second place

The Jays added longtime Rays center fielder and bolstered their rotation with the addition of . They made a couple of fascinating trades, picking up outfielder for catcher and to fill the void in the outfield created when they sent to Seattle for setup man and a pitching prospect.

They also lost , , and , but the Blue Jays still could add a complementary outfield bat and more pitching depth.

Where does that leave Toronto? Maybe a little less imposing offensively, but much more balanced. The Blue Jays have essentially rebranded their outfield, turning it into a potentially excellent run-prevention unit in support of a well-rounded pitching staff. It’ll ultimately come down to how their star hitters perform and how their top starters hold up, but they certainly have the talent to contend for the division.

Orioles
Last season: 83-79, fourth place

It hasn’t exactly been a “liftoff” offseason, but the Orioles’ rebuilding days are over. Despite a lack of major additions so far, they should take another step forward with a full year of , and .

You could see their year-to-year improvement through their record against the Rays alone: 1-18 in 2021, then 9-10 last year. Baltimore will be competitive again in 2023.

Baltimore essentially replaced , and by signing starter , picking up infielder and acquiring catcher . They also brought back reliever and picked right-hander Andrew Politi in the Rule 5 Draft, adding arms to a bullpen mix that impressed the Rays from the jump last season. They’ve said they want to add another starter, and they’ll make moves around the edges in search of incremental upgrades.

Red Sox
Last season: 78-84, last place

Their biggest decision was extending for 11 years and $331 million, per a source, but there’s been a lot of roster turnover in Boston.

The Red Sox lost , , , , , , and . But they stabilized their bullpen by signing , and and patched one hole in their rotation with former Ray . The club will essentially replace Martinez with , and the Red Sox made a surprisingly big bet on Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida. Boston could still pursue a middle infielder and another catcher.

The Red Sox seem caught in the middle, with enough talent to compete but probably not enough to win the division unless a lot of things break their way. Still, with Devers secured, that path exists if they get better health from their rotation (especially ), a star-level season from , the bullpen stability they paid for and big league development from and .