This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
This edition of the Reds Beat newsletter was written by Manny Randhawa.
As Cincinnati celebrates the 250th birthday of the United States on Saturday, baseball fans in the Queen City will also be celebrating a highly anticipated event set to occur at Great American Ball Park on the Fourth of July.
Reds ace Hunter Greene is scheduled to make his season debut against the Orioles on Saturday after recovering from a procedure to remove bone chips from his right elbow.
Greene’s impending return gives rise to questions about what it could mean for Cincinnati, a club currently in last place in the National League Central but still within striking distance of a .500 record with just over half of the regular season completed:
What can we expect from the hard-throwing 26-year-old, who posted a 2.76 ERA from 2024-25?
Just how good might the top of Cincinnati’s starting rotation be when Greene is teamed up with 23-year-old righty Chase Burns, who has emerged as one of the best starters in the game?
And will that 1-2 punch be an X-factor in getting the Reds into the postseason this fall?
Here’s what we can glean from how Greene looked during his Minor League rehab assignment, as well as what we’ve seen from Burns so far in 2026:
Greene hasn’t let up on the gas pedal
One of the game’s hardest-throwing starters before he underwent elbow surgery, Greene and his fastball haven’t slowed down. Last season, his four-seamer averaged 99.5 mph, and so far in 2026, the pitch is still crackling through the strike zone.
Over Greene’s three Minor League rehab starts -- one with the Reds’ Rookie-level ACL affiliate and two with Triple-A Louisville -- his fastball sat at 99 mph and touched 101.
The results have been near-perfect
It’s the Minors, and the point is to get a final tuneup in before returning to the big leagues. Nevertheless, what Greene did in those three rehab appearances was impressive. He threw 14 1/3 scoreless innings, yielding just five hits while walking two and striking out 13.
With Greene likely to make two starts at most before the All-Star break, he said he’s looking forward to replicating what he did over the final two months last year, when he had a 2.81 ERA with 59 strikeouts and 12 walks.
“I came in and pretty much dominated the whole entire stretch in the second half," Greene said last week. "That’s my intention coming back here again."
Burns keeps impressing
It’s not like Burns wasn’t expected to be a quality Major League pitcher -- he was, after all, the No. 2 overall pick by the Reds in the 2024 Draft and excelled in the Minor Leagues, so much so that he reached the status of the organization’s No. 1 prospect.
But what the young right-hander has done over 17 starts this year is remarkable. Not only did he put himself into the early NL Cy Young Award conversation alongside the likes of Brewers flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski and Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez, but Burns has been consistent as the sample size continues to grow.
Despite a hiccup on June 27 against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, when he surrendered five runs over six innings (no walks, 10 strikeouts), Burns bounced back with another stellar performance on Thursday opposite the Miz in Milwaukee. Burns held the Brewers to two runs on four hits over six innings in a 7-2 Reds win.
Burns’ 2.8 fWAR entering Thursday was tied with Braves left-hander Chris Sale for third in the NL behind only Misiorowski and Sánchez.
While Burns has been tremendous for Cincinnati, he’s nearing 100 innings pitched during his first full MLB season, and the question of workload management comes into play. Prior to this season, Burns had thrown 109 1/3 professional innings. It will be interesting if the Reds are, indeed, in the thick of the playoff race down the stretch.
Will the Greene/Burns duo be enough?
But will they actually be in the thick of the playoff race?
Even with a pitcher of Greene’s caliber returning and joining one of the best starters in the league atop the Reds’ rotation, the climb ahead is a steep one for Cincinnati.
Outside of Burns and Andrew Abbott (3.88 ERA), each of the club’s starters has an ERA above 5.00. And lately, the lineup has gone cold, scoring the third-fewest runs of any team in June (99).
How much of a lift could a Greene/Burns tandem really give a team that finds itself six games out of the final NL Wild Card spot just before the All-Star break?
Coming into this season, Greene and Abbott were considered one of the 10 best 1-2 rotation punches in the game. If Greene continues to overpower opposing batters and Burns maintains his excellence, an argument could be made that behind the Milwaukee duo of Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison, the Reds’ top two arms could form the best tandem in the Majors.
Last year, Greene returned from a groin injury in early August and helped the Reds reach the playoffs. But that club was 63-58 at the time of his return. It’s going to be a tougher task this time.
To be sure, the return of another injured Reds hurler -- closer Emilio Pagán -- could help bolster a beleaguered bullpen. And Abbott could be a wild card for the rotation after he delivered a 2.87 ERA for Cincinnati during an All-Star campaign in 2025.