Another top-of-rotation arm is generating buzz, with '50-50' chance of being traded

While the baseball world waits to see how the Tarik Skubal situation plays out, another notable starting pitcher may be in play leading up to Monday’s Trade Deadline.

The Reds have received interest in former All-Star right-hander Hunter Greene, and according to a source, there’s a “50-50” chance he could be moved this week.

Cincinnati has seven impending free agents who could be traded by Monday, but Greene would bring back a far bigger return than any of those players.

After missing the first three-plus months of 2026 following surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow, Greene is 2-2 with a 7.06 ERA in four starts this season.

Greene, who turns 27 on August 6, signed a six-year, $53 million extension with the Reds in April 2023. He is owed $15 million in 2027, $16 million in 2028 and has a $21 million club option for 2029 with a $2 million buyout.

Greene pitched through discomfort in his elbow late last season, and while surgery to remove the bone chips was on the table last October, he opted for a platelet-rich plasma injection to address the issue. The ultimate decision to have surgery in March kept him on the shelf for the first half of 2026, something that may have been avoided had he chosen surgery in the fall.

The right-hander has gone through a multitude of injuries during his career, never making more than 26 starts in a season. He threw a career-high 150 1/3 innings during his 2024 All-Star campaign, going 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA and a 3.7 fWAR, earning down-ballot votes in the National League Cy Young Award race.

Injuries have been an issue ever since he was in the Minors. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018, missing the entire 2019 Minor League season, and has spent time on the injured list during his Major League career with shoulder, hip, elbow, shin and groin injuries.

A pair of groin injuries limited Greene to 19 starts (107 2/3 innings) in 2025, though he posted a 2.76 ERA and struck out 132 batters.

Even as he’s been inconsistent during his four starts this season, Greene flashed the type of outing on July 10 that made teams take notice, striking out 12 Cubs over seven scoreless innings.

An NL executive called Greene “a polarizing player with strong positives and real concerns.” On the plus side, Greene comes with “a reasonable contract that covers the majority of the rest of his prime seasons” with “legit swing-and-miss stuff,” and he has “shown ability to overpower offenses.”

The concerns?

“Health,” the exec said. “He falls into the high quality and moderate-to-low quantity category.”

What kind of haul could the Reds get in return for Greene?

One American League executive pointed to the White Sox return from the Red Sox in the December 2024 Garrett Crochet trade, which saw Chicago land two Top-100 prospects (Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery) along with two of Boston’s other Top 15 prospects (Chase Meidroth and Wikelman González).

Crochet was under club control for two more years at the time of the deal, though the Red Sox signed him to a six-year, $170 million extension in March 2025.

“That seems like a very good outcome for the Reds,” an NL executive said of the Crochet comparison. “In just 146 innings, [Crochet] posted a 4.6 fWAR season in 2024 before being traded. Greene’s platform season has been truncated by an elbow injury and is currently marred by a scary ERA. I would think that teams will overlook the small sample size impacting the ERA, but yet another arm issue may reduce the return more substantively.”

An NL executive comped the floor for a potential Greene trade to the December 2023 deal that sent Tyler Glasnow from the Rays to the Dodgers. Tampa Bay received Ryan Pepiot, who had ranked as Los Angeles’ No. 6 prospect and No. 70 in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prior to that season, and Jonny DeLuca, who had ranked as the Dodgers’ No. 22. Glasnow was signed for $25 million for that season, his final before free agency, though he inked a five-year, $136.5 million deal with the Dodgers following the trade.

“Glasnow was older and an even more extreme case of quality without quantity,” the NL executive said.

Another NL executive said his “general starting point for a decent player with two-plus years of control” is two Top 100 prospects, a third prospect of value and a fourth who could be a flyer.

“Given the salary and injury history, I think two Top 100 guys plus a third piece sounds about right,” the executive said.

The Reds entered Thursday at 50-57, leaving them six games behind the final NL Wild Card spot. Assuming they do sell, they figure to move RHP Brady Singer, C Tyler Stephenson, 3B/DH Eugenio Suárez, 1B/DH Nathaniel Lowe, LHP Caleb Ferguson, LHP Brock Burke and RHP Pierce Johnson, all of whom will be free agents after the season.

Utility player Spencer Steer would have been an appealing trade candidate before he suffered a sprained right wrist last weekend. Other controllable players who could generate interest include OF JJ Bleday, RHP Emilio Pagán, C Jose Trevino, LHP Nick Lodolo and LHP Andrew Abbott.