Happ's big night offers hope Cubs' funk is nearing an end

May 27th, 2024

ST. LOUIS -- By the time reached the eighth pitch from Cardinals reliever Andrew Kittredge in the seventh inning on Sunday night, the Cubs outfielder had a decision to make in the batter’s box. Should he anticipate a fastball or a slider?

“I haven’t seen him a lot,” Happ said. “I was able to see all of his pitches in that at-bat to give myself a chance.”

The game within the game that Happ has been playing with pitchers this season waged on when Kittredge went back to the slider. Happ was ready for it and launched the breaking ball out to right field for the first of two late homers for the veteran in the North Siders’ 4-3 loss to the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

Overall, it was another disappointing night for a Cubs offense that has been caught in a lineup-wide drought for the past month. The two games in St. Louis go into the book as a pair of one-run losses, but the signs of life on Saturday, followed by another late rally Sunday at least offer some hope that a corner is nearly turned.

Happ represents an important piece to that process.

“It’s good to get Ian hopefully swinging it well,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “That’s a big plus for the offense going forward.”

In 48 games this season, Happ has hit .224/.335/.362 with four homers and 17 RBIs for the North Siders. Prior to Sunday’s game, Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly walked through some of the factors behind Happ’s overall struggles. One key component has been a sudden uptick in the volume of sliders that the left fielder is seeing right now.

Sliders/Sweepers to Happ in 2024
April: 15.8%
May: 20.7%

Kelly noted that a major focus over the offseason and through Spring Training was to improve Happ’s timing, approach and production against fastballs. In 2023, the switch-hitter had a .233 average and .405 slugging percentage on heaters (all types), per Statcast. The early returns of their work behind the scenes was a .321 average and .512 SLG entering Sunday.

“He's been crushing fastballs, but obviously the league adjusts, right?” Kelly said. “They realize, ‘Hey, this guy didn't hit fastballs great last year. Let's attack him with fastballs early in the year.’ He goes up, proves them wrong, handles the fastball. So now they've gone really to a heavy-slider approach.”

Kelly’s breakdown of Happ’s season played out throughout Sunday’s game.

St. Louis righty Sonny Gray only featured his sweeper once in their initial, seven-pitch battle, nibbling around the edges in what developed into a walk. In their next meeting, Gray did not show Happ a single heater. He started with a changeup and then fired five consecutive sweepers, including a low-and-in pitch that Happ swung through for a strikeout.

“He's got a really good slider that he goes to a lot,” Happ said. “The fifth one was pretty good.”

In the seventh, Kittredge was a pitcher Happ had never faced in the regular season. For the first six pitches, the reliever twice threw his slider only after a pair of fastballs. Kittredge’s seventh pitch was an elevated fastball that Happ fouled off to keep the at-bat in a 2-2 count. Happ had a swinging strike and a foul on the two sliders below the zone he had seen to that point.

“That right-handed slider for the left-handed hitter -- that back-foot slider -- is a tough pitch to hit,” Kelly said. “It kind of starts in that same window as that four-seamer out over the plate that Ian handles really good.”

The eighth pitch was a slider that stayed up and caught the bottom edge of the zone. Happ entered the day 3-for-36 (.083) with no homers on at-bats ending with a slider or sweeper this season. This time, he sent one out to right-center for a two-run blast with a 107.1 mph exit velocity.

“That eight-pitch homer,” Happ said, “I was just battling from pitch one to be able to get something I could handle.”

In the ninth, Happ took a slider from closer Ryan Helsely before connecting on a 100.7 mph fastball for a homer to bring the Cubs within one run. Chicago put two more runners aboard with two outs, but could not complete the comeback.

“Really good at-bats, giving ourselves a chance,” Happ said. “We've been in a little bit of a tough stretch offensively. [We’ll] just keep taking the positives out of it.”