Memorial Day is a major milepost in MLB, a time to take a gander at the standings and know that, if history holds, most of the teams in playoff position will remain that way at season’s end.
Ah, but there’s a reason we have Memorial Day parades this time of year and not championship parades. We’re only about one-third of the way through the regular season. And in the expanded postseason format that has been in effect since the 2022 season, the holiday standings snapshot holds greater uncertainty than it once did.
We looked at the standings as of Memorial Day in 2022, ‘23, ‘24 and ‘25, and at the resulting playoff fields in each of those years to see what they reveal to us about the current October format and what can be gleaned from the present-day picture.
How often, in this format, did teams in a postseason position on Memorial Day hold on?
Across the four seasons under this format, teams in position to reach the postseason as of Memorial Day ended up making it 70.8% of the time.
Of the 48 total postseason spots in those years, 14 had turnover between Memorial Day and season’s end. It happened four times each in 2022, 2024 and 2025, with only two spots turning over in 2023.
What was the biggest Memorial Day lead for a team that didn’t wind up reaching the postseason?
The 2022 Twins had a five-game American League Central lead going into Memorial Day. They ended up missing October entirely. They were still seven games over .500 as late as Aug. 19 that year, but went 16-29 the rest of the way. Injuries to key players Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis were a big culprit, but that Twins team’s lack of pitching depth was also exposed down the stretch.
What was the biggest Memorial Day deficit overcome by an eventual postseason team?
Fresh off a 2021 season in which they were below .500 in early August only to rally to win the World Series, the 2022 Atlanta Braves overcame an 8 1/2-game deficit in the NL East, as of Memorial Day, to finish in first place in the division. The division deficit actually reached as high as 10 1/2 games. That team took time to gel, but won 77 of its final 110 games. There were many factors for this surge, but two moves made this time of year paid off particularly well: the promotion of eventual NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II directly from Double-A, and the move of 23-year-old fireballer Spencer Strider from the bullpen to the rotation.
There was really something in the air in that 2022 season, because it also saw the Guardians storm back from a 7 1/2-game deficit to win the AL Central, the Mariners overcome a 6 1/2-game Wild Card deficit to claim the AL’s second Wild Card spot and the Phillies erase a five-game Wild Card deficit to grab the NL’s sixth seed. Those Mariners and Phillies bounces are the largest Wild Card comebacks under this format, and the Phillies would use theirs to bounce the defending champion Braves in the NL Division Series, en route to the NL pennant.
What were the worst Memorial Day records for teams that made the postseason under this format?
The entire list of teams that were below .500 as of Memorial Day and went on to reach the postseason is as follows:
2022 Mariners, .417 winning percentage
2024 Mets, .423
2022 Phillies, .438
2022 Guardians, .442
2024 Astros, .453
2023 Phillies, .472
2022 Braves, .479
2025 Blue Jays, .481
2025 Brewers, .481
2025 Reds, .481
2024 Tigers, .491
2025 Red Sox, .491
The 2022 Mariners’ standings surge was especially meaningful in that it got the franchise to the postseason for the first time in 21 years. The comeback was capped by Cal Raleigh's walk-off homer off the foul pole in the bottom of the ninth in a 2-1 win over the A’s.
Two clubs on the above list didn’t just reach the playoffs but also made the World Series -- the 2022 Phillies and the 2025 Blue Jays -- which just goes to show that a sub-.500 Memorial Day record might not feel good but doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost. The ’22 Phillies were six games under .500 as of the holiday.
What were the best Memorial Day records for teams that failed to reach the postseason?
There have been 14 teams who sat in a postseason spot at .500 or better going into Memorial Day and ended up missing the postseason entirely:
2022 Brewers, .625 winning percentage
2022 Twins, .604
2025 Mets, .604
2025 Giants, .585
2023 Yankees, .582
2025 Twins, .558
2022 Angels, .551
2022 Giants, .543
2024 Twins, .538
2025 Royals, .537
2024 Mariners, .519
2023 Giants, .509
2024 Cubs, .509
2024 Giants, .500 (technically held tiebreaker over the Padres at that time)
What’s wild is that the 2022 Brewers’ collapse currently stands as the only time since 2017 that they didn’t reach the postseason. They were 12 games over .500 going into the holiday and would get as high as 14 games over, but the offense was inconsistent, the pitching depth was tested and a controversial trade of star closer Josh Hader at the Trade Deadline all contributed to a devastating second-half slide.
Incredibly, the Giants appear on the above list four times, meaning they have blown a Memorial Day playoff spot every year this format has been in existence.
What does the above tell us about the 2026 season?
Our crystal ball broke a long time ago, but it would seem realistic to expect at least two or three of the current playoff positions to change hands by season’s end. Fortunately or unfortunately for Giants fans, San Francisco does not currently hold a playoff spot, so at least that ignominious streak will come to a close. But the above is a sobering reminder that its important to stay humble and hopeful in such a forgiving playoff format, especially in an unusually constrained American League in which so many would-be contenders have struggled to assert themselves in the first third of the season.
So by all means, take a look at the standings today. But maybe not a long one.