Breaking down whether Red Sox should trade Duran

BOSTON -- The rumors that the Red Sox might trade Jarren Duran started back in early July, roughly around the same time Roman Anthony proved that he was not an overhyped prospect, but instead was tracking to be the superstar to lead Boston into its next era of winning.

It just so happened that the Sox were playing solid baseball leading into the Trade Deadline, and Duran and Anthony were both key contributors in that run.

Sensibly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow didn’t want to break up his team’s chemistry or momentum. And the asking price for starting pitchers across the board was so high that most of the best ones wound up not getting traded.

Breslow in fact dodged a bullet by not dealing Duran, as Anthony suffered a season-ending left oblique injury on Sept. 2 and Wilyer Abreu missed five weeks down the stretch with a right calf injury.

However, trading Duran makes a lot more sense now than it did then, and that’s through no fault of the player himself.

Here are the reasons Duran could move on from the team that drafted him back in 2018 as a scrawny second baseman out of Long Beach State:

He is the perfect chip to fill a more pressing need
Sure, the Red Sox got Sonny Gray in a recent trade with the Cardinals, and then made a deal with the Pirates to acquire Johan Oviedo. But the case can be made that the addition of Gray serves essentially as a replacement for Lucas Giolito, who is a free agent expected to sign elsewhere, and Oviedo is likely more of a depth piece or possibly a bullpen arm.

Wouldn’t everyone agree that the Sox need to add another front-line pitcher to pair with Garrett Crochet?

Duran’s combination of speed, power and dynamic athleticism makes him an attractive commodity to many teams looking to spark their offense.

And it wouldn’t come at a huge cost. Duran recently avoided arbitration by signing a $7.75 million deal for ‘26. And believe it or not, he has two more arb-eligible seasons left, meaning he can’t test free agent waters until the offseason leading into the ‘29 season.

While Duran alone won’t land the Red Sox someone like Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan or Cole Ragans, he would be a strong foundational piece of the package.

The logjam still exists
Yes, Boston’s logjam in the outfield. It still exists. Though Breslow and manager Alex Cora both say they could make the situation work going forward, what else are they going to say? Every roster works best when it is most functional. Meaning that the players who play every day do so at their most comfortable position, and the role players come off the bench.

Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Abreu are a strong defensive combo from left to right. Sure, Anthony could play right field and Abreu could be dealt instead of Duran. But Abreu has one more year of club control than Duran, and he won the Gold Glove Award in his first two full seasons playing what is considered to be the toughest right field in baseball at Fenway Park.

• Abreu, Rafaela earn Gold Glove nods for outfield magic in ‘25

Duran should play center
When Duran had his breakout season in 2024, he started 89 games in center field and 71 in left. In fact, he wound up as a Gold Glove Finalist that year for his work in center. Last year, the tables turned, as Duran was in left field for 129 starts and center for 22. It was clear just watching Duran that he doesn’t read the ball as well in left as he does in center. He made several misplays in left, most notably a costly one in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Yankees when he got a bad break on a routine fly ball by Aaron Judge and dropped it.

It might not be a stretch to say that Duran’s offense in ‘25 dipped below what it was in ‘24 because he wasn’t feeling the same confidence as a left fielder that he does in center.

So why don’t the Red Sox just move Duran to center? Because they can’t. Rafaela is considered the best defensive center fielder in the American League and only Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs might be better in all of baseball. Also, Rafaela is a right-handed hitter and the Red Sox have been too tilted to left-handed hitters for the last couple of years, making it highly unlikely he would be moved.

Why not keep Duran and trade a major prospect?
It’s certainly a valid question. But there’s a reason that is the less-preferred road for Breslow and his staff.

Chaim Bloom -- now president of baseball operations for the Cardinals -- spent years rebuilding the Boston farm system, and Breslow has continued to strengthen it the last two years. Also, Breslow traded four prospects to get Crochet a year ago, and sent another one in lefty Brandon Clarke to the Cardinals to complete the Gray trade. At this point, the Sox are better off building a package around a Major League player.

So is it likely the Red Sox will trade Duran?
If the Red Sox can put together a package that includes Duran that will land them an elite starter -- someone who could pitch near the front of the rotation in a postseason series -- I believe it is very likely. However, given Duran’s talent, the Red Sox aren’t just going to trade him to make it easier for Cora to divvy up the playing time in the outfield. It will have to be the right deal for Boston to move on from Duran.