The numbers don’t lie. In six games against the Braves and Dodgers, the Pirates went 1-5. They didn’t score more than three runs in the first four. They had a run differential of minus-17, helped by a blowout loss on Tuesday.
Brandon Lowe, however, isn’t deterred by those numbers. Speaking after an 8-6 loss to the Dodgers at PNC Park on Thursday, the Pirates second baseman continued to express confidence in the team's upside. At the same time, Lowe knows a few things must be addressed.
The Dodgers forced Pirates pitchers (and Tyler Callihan) to throw 592 pitches over three days, while the two best teams in the National League exhibited several other characteristics Pittsburgh must emulate: strong starting pitching, a sturdy bullpen, an explosive offense and the ability to make routine plays.
There were times the Pirates did one or maybe two of those. But that hasn’t happened consistently enough this season. Certainly not over the past two series.
“Bullpens are really hard to hit on these really good teams,” Lowe said. “The starters are locating and aren’t giving up too many pitches in the middle that are damage pitches.
“On the offensive side, they’re taking really good at-bats. They’re not chasing for early, weak contact. They’re rolling off a really good approach. The last two teams we faced, they’re the top two in the league for a reason.”
It’s not to explain away any of the Pirates’ shortcomings. Mitch Keller allowed five earned runs over four innings and has an 8.70 ERA over his last six starts. On Thursday, Pirates pitchers walked eight, hit three and threw two wild pitches. All of it must be better.
Over the past six games, we also saw defensive miscues and a failure to hit with runners in scoring position, the Pirates going 6 for 29 in that situation while leaving 18 in Atlanta.
Pittsburgh closed to within 5-4 Thursday thanks to a four-run fifth. It also scored twice in the eighth to again nudge closer. But the Pirates couldn’t overcome a poor start by Keller, who again cited his lack of execution, especially with two strikes.
Keller has been steady and occasionally specular for the Pirates (35-34) over the years. He and they need to rediscover that version of the right-hander, something that was discussed by manager Don Kelly and Keller postgame.
From this seat, Keller has been at his best throwing hard stuff and keeping it simple. He doesn’t need to throw seven pitches to get outs. He needs to consistently execute three, with one being his sinker to induce weak contact.
Keller threw his sinker just 13% of the time Thursday, down slightly from 16% on the season. That should change. We’ve also seen a recurrence of a problem Keller experienced around 2021: consistently making better pitches when getting to two strikes.
“Obviously not executing,” Keller said. “Walking people is not helping me. I just have to be better. I have to fill it up more. I have to attack the hitters and execute when I get to two strikes.”
There’s really no fancy solution here. As much as anyone externally might clamor for the Pirates to add relief help — they’re not wrong — Keller’s part of the rotation and figures to remain one for the foreseeable future. He simply has to pitch better. He knows that.
Shohei Ohtani got him on a sweeper down for a solo homer in the third. Kyle Tucker blooped a first-pitch cutter into left for a two-run double. Keller left a four-seamer middle-middle to Freddie Freeman in the fourth, and the Dodgers got a fifth run on a wild pitch.
If Keller throws more strikes or misses more barrels (eight hard-hit balls in four innings), maybe the result is different.
“He’s been a really good pitcher for us,” Kelly said. “He’s gonna get out of this. We need to find a way. Obviously a tough lineup over there with the Dodgers. Really deep. They worked the pitch count way up. Almost 100 in four innings. We have to figure something out to help him.”
The Pirates’ fifth showed the closeness Lowe referenced. Rafael Flores Jr., here because Henry Davis’ wife is about to give birth and Endy Rodriguez has a sore hip, launched one 440 feet to center in the bottom of the fifth.
Flores also doubled in a run in the eighth, further capitalizing on the opportunity.
Tyler Callihan, the Pirates’ latest folk hero, also drew a walk, tripled and scored. Those guys have done an excellent job making everyone take notice of their offensive abilities.
Lowe made it a 5-3 game with his 16th homer of the season, taking a 2-2 slider to right in the fifth. Spencer Horwitz followed with a line drive to right to bring the Pirates to within a run.
But that’s when the small stuff the Braves and Dodgers dominate bit the Pirates.
Miguel Rojas hit a ball to Lowe that should’ve been an out. Neither the throw nor the tag was crisp. Dalton Rushing scored on another wild pitch. Kyle Tucker scored on a sacrifice fly after he reached when Flores couldn’t catch strike three.
Those things can’t happen. Especially not against teams like the Dodgers and Braves.
“We need to continue to get better,’ Kelly said. “We’re learning how to win. We need to continue to work on the fundamental stuff as far as throwing strikes, making plays defensively, continue to work on our approach at the plate.”
This is a hugely critical time for the Pirates. First and foremost, their pitching must stabilize. Since May 15, the Pirates have a team ERA of 5.11 over 25 games, sixth-worst in MLB. Not many playoff teams or clubs that finish above .500 live there.
They also need to continue to get offense from other sources while Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz are on the injured list. It’s not easy; those two are arguably their two most valuable position players. But it’s reality.
Teams often sink or swim based on how replacements fare, and even the Braves and Dodgers must call on reinforcements. It’s yet another aspect of their winning ways the Pirates must hope is contagious.
“We continued to fight back, continued to grind,” Kelly said. “Doing it without two of our best players, it just speaks to the toughness of the team, how we continue to battle.
“If we continue to do that through the remainder of the season, we’ll be in a really good spot.”
On the bright side, Horwitz extended his on-base streak to 17 games, a career-high. He’s hitting .328 with a .977 OPS during that stretch. Meanwhile, Callihan is 5 for 13 (.579) with two doubles, a triple and two homers in his short time since arriving here from Triple-A Indianapolis.
The Pirates must continue to get production from Nick Gonzales (two hits), Lowe, Bryan Reynolds (.289 average and .879 OPS since April 30) and Ryan O’Hearn. They also need some surprise performances like Callihan and Flores offered and for their pitching to look like it did for the first six weeks or so of the season.
There’s no other option if they’re competing with the likes of the Braves and Dodgers, teams so stacked and so deep that you can’t afford to make the type of mistakes the Pirates have over the past six games.
“There’s competition there,” Lowe said, again reinforcing the idea that he believes the Pirates are close. “I think that’s going to go a long way with a lot of people in here, to understand that we’re a really good ball club, to know everybody in here belongs and can do some really special things.”
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.